NFL Week 4 Winners

The NFL super seven finished up at another week at or around .500 and it would seem as something has to give and this week in preparation for week four the hot discussion is injuries. It was just announced today that Rudi Johnson will not play against the Patriots on Monday night and the mystery in Carolina on whether or not David Carr will make his first start is still up in the air. The best way to prepare for handicapping NFL games with injuries is to decide what type of impact the player that is hurt will have if they are out of the lineup. Certain players will have more of an impact if they miss the game than others. Look into what type of role they will play and if the backup is suitable to fill in where the starter leaves off.

Week One: 3-4
Week Two: 3-3-1
Week Three: 3-4
Overall: 9-11-1

7) Vikings +2The Packers are in for a shock this week when they head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in a divisional match up. The Vikings rushing attack will give the Packers defense fits and the Vikings have revenge for being swept in the season series last year. The Vikings have won 20 of 28 as home dogs and are always solid at home. Minnesota has also cashed nine off 11 when playing its second game at home, including its last four as underdogs. In addition, the Vikings are 6-0 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight-up losses versus an opponent that's over .500. Vikings win outright.

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6) Rams +13 The Cowboys made a statement last week when they dismantled the vaunted Bears defense on national television. The Rams are in disarray having yet to cover and are plagued with injuries, but they are the pick in this one tonight. Leonard is a very suitable replacement for Jackson and the Rams need a win and will fight to the end in this one. The Cowboys weakness, if any, is on pass defense and the Rams can exploit this. The Cowboys are 8-16 as double-digit favorites and 4-9 ATS off a SU win as underdogs.

5) Arizona +6This will be a very interesting game for the Cardinals and head coach Whisenhunt as he faces his former team in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The cardinal’s defense is underrated and will be ready to attack. Whisenhunt was under attack by his former QB this week and will be ready to make him eat his words. The steelers are 1-7 as road favorites off a double-digit SU win and 6-16-1 as non-division away favorites.

4) 49ers +2These teams are headed in opposite directions then in years past. The 49ers are revamped but off a loss in a game when they needed to prove themselves which makes this game at home against a divisional rival. Seattle is 7-17 as road favorites and 3-12 on the highway when laying 3 1/2 points or less.

3) Buffalo +3.5The Bills are in desperate need of a win and now have no where to go but up and the good news is they get the jets this week. The Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss and 13-1 after playing New England. Buffalo has cashed five of its last seven against New York. The Jets a 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500. Look for the Bills to win outright and get the first win of the season.

2) Giants +3The giants join a list of divisional home dogs that will cash this weekend and have a solid shot of winning outright. Don’t be fooled by the Eagles performance last week it was against a very bad defense and they are hurting with injuries. Manning has gained control of the offense and the running game is back, the Giants win outright today and get back in the race.

1) San Diego -12.5The Chargers have imploded and are looking for answers as the QB and the head coach were under fire after losing to the Packers. The Chargers are better than they have played in the last two games and will take it out on the lowly KC Chiefs. The home team in this series is 7-1 ATS and the straight up winner is 21-3 ATS and I do not see the Chargers losing this one.

Week 4 NFL who is going to win!

Underdog Research plays

This underdog research is important because this week there is nine home underdogs on the card. It is no secret that home underdogs can play well and make a profit but I wanted to come out with an angle for this week that had some out standing numbers. After all research is always great but if you can’t apply it to the games this week then why bother?

So I broke it down to even more strict parameters and found some great research plays for this week involving home dogs.

Research Play #1) Teams that are a home underdog in the last five years and coming off of a home loss are 36-21-4. This is an outstanding percentage but it gets better if this team was an underdog in that loss it then cashes at 26-12-2 ATS! That is 65% and this week this fits the Atlanta Falcons at home +4 against Houston.

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Research Play #2) Play on a team as a three point or less home underdog against a divisional rival that is off back to back straight up losses in the last five years. The result is a 11-6-1 (61%) record. This week the play is on the Minnesota Vikings +2.5 over Green Bay.

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Grossman Benched!

Rex Grossman reportedly will be benched by the Chicago Bears for Sunday's game at Detroit, with Brian Griese starting at quarterback.Citing unidentified sources, NFL.com, the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun-Times reported Tuesday that the beleaguered Grossman would sit when the Bears (1-2) visit the Lions (2-1).

Oddsmakers have listed the Bears as 2 1/2-point favorites for Sunday's game and the total is set at 45.

The Bears would not confirm that any decision has been made, saying only that coach Lovie Smith would be available for his regular Wednesday news conference.

Grossman threw three interceptions as the Bears fell to the Dallas Cowboys 34-10 on national TV on Sunday night. The following day, Smith, who usually gives Grossman full support, instead said: ''Will Rex Grossman start Sunday? Well, our evaluation process is going on right now, and if you come out to practice Wednesday, you'll have a better idea of who will be starting at all positions.''Grossman has struggled ever since February's Super Bowl, when he threw two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

This year, he ranks 23rd in the league with 500 yards, has a 45.2 rating and is 47-of-89 (52.8 percent) with a league-leading six interceptions and just one touchdown.Now in his fifth pro season, Grossman has been inconsistent as Chicago's starter, but he did get the team to the Super Bowl last season.

Griese, a 10-year veteran, was a Pro Bowl pick with Denver in 2000. He has passed for 16,564 yards, but has also been released three times - by the Broncos, Miami and Tampa Bay.''I have confidence in our entire football team,'' Smith said Monday. ''Brian is a part of that. After you have a loss like that, we all feel bad. We should.''

Week 4 Trends and Angles

The Green Bay Packers (3-0, both SU and ATS) are the toast of the NFL once again after starting the season with three straight wins for the first time since 2001. QB Brett Favre will be looking to surpass Dan Marino as the career leader in touchdown passes Sunday when the Packers head to Minnesota (1-2, 1-1-1) for a NFC North division showdown.




The Vikings are underdogs at home against Green Bay for the first time since the 2002 season and they are desperate for a win to avoid failing three games off the pace in the division chase.
Green Bay will likely be the people's choice, but Minnesota has several factors in its favor. The Vikings have cashed nine of their last dozen against the Packers and the underdog in this storied rivalry is 16-1 in the last 17 encounters.

Minnesota has 'covered' 20 of 28 as home pups and 14 of 17 as short-enders at the Metrodome with revenge. Green Bay took both games versus the Vikings last season, prevailing as 5 1/2-point road dogs, 23-17, and as 3 1/2-point home favorites, 9-7.

Minnesota has also cashed nine off 11 when playing its second game at home, including its last four as underdogs. In addition, the Vikings are 6-0 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight-up losses versus an opponent that's over .500.

Green Bay has faltered at a 14-4-2 clip as road favorites when playing on turf.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 4 NFL schedule appear below.

RAIDERS (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at DOLPHINS (0-3 SU, 0-1-2 ATS)
Oakland snapped an 11-game losing skid by nipping Cleveland at home, 26-24. The Raiders now take aim at ending a 12-game road futility streak. Miami has faltered in eight of its last nine, both straight up and against the spread, as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or more. The Dolphins have also failed to cash 16 of 22 at home versus non-division foes. Oakland is 12-22 ATS on the road and 14-20 as short-enders on the highway. However, the Raiders have 'covered' 10 of 12 on the road before a bye and nine in a row off a SU win. Miami has won and 'covered' six straight against Oakland dating back to 1997.




TEXANS (2-1, 2-0-1) at FALCONS (0-3, 1-2)
Houston finds itself in the rare role of favorites. The Texans have come up short as the chalk in seven of 11 chances since the inception of the franchise in 2002. Houston is 3-7 ATS on the road against NFC foes. Atlanta has cashed eight off 11 as dogs coming off a SU loss. However, the Falcons are 3-15 ATS at home when facing teams with a winning record and they are 7-11-1 as dogs versus AFC competition. The Texans have tipped 'under' in 18 of 28 on the road. Atlanta has zipped 'over' in 13 of 18 as non-conference dogs.

RAVENS (2-1, 0-3) at BROWNS (1-2, 2-1)
Baltimore hasn't dropped four in a row ATS since Brian Billick took over in 1999. However, the dog in this AFC North rivalry has come away with the cash in eight of the last 11 encounters and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes. Cleveland has 'covered' three straight overall against the Ravens and three straight at home. The Browns are 3-10 as division dogs of less than seven points. They have cashed at a 16-6-1 clip after scoring 23 points or more. Baltimore has lost and failed in 14 of its last 20 road outings. Six of the past nine series scuffles have been on the low side. The Ravens have knuckled 'under' at a 19-7-1 rate in September. Cleveland has dipped 'under' at a 19-10-1 pace as home dogs of three points or more.

BEARS (1-2, 0-3) at LIONS (2-1, 1-1-1)
Chicago has now dropped six straight spread decisions dating back to 2006. The last time the defending NFC champs failed to get the green in four straight games in the same season was in 2002. Detroit will be looking to extend a streak that has seen the dog cash at a 10-4-1 pace in this series. The SU winner is also 27-5-2 ATS. The Bears are 4-9-2 as division road favorites and 11-32-2 ATS coming off a SU loss as the chalk. The Lions are 29-16 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more. Chicago has slipped below the 'total' in eight of 10 after bowing SU as a favorite. Detroit has ducked 'under' at an 11-4-1 clip in September.

RAMS (0-3, 0-3) at COWBOYS (3-0, 3-0)
Dallas should attract a lot of attention this week considering it has cashed three in a row and St. Louis has failed in three straight ATS. However, the Cowboys are 8-16 as double-digit favorites and 4-9 ATS off a SU win as underdogs. They have cashed seven of eight at home off back-to-back road games. The Rams are 9-26-2 ATS against non-division foes and 10-18 ATS on the highway when facing teams with a winning record. St. Louis has eclipsed the 'total' in 14 of 20 as double-digit dogs and in 13 of 20 on the road versus a non-division opponent.

JETS (1-2, 1-1-1) at BILLS (0-3, 1-2)
The New York Jets have stumbled in eight of their last nine as road favorites against Buffalo. However, the Jets have 'covered' at a 9-4-1 pace as away chalk overall. The Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss and 13-1 after playing New England. Buffalo has cashed five of its last seven against New York. The Jets a 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500.




BUCS (2-1, 2-1) at PANTHERS (2-1, 2-1)
Tampa Bay hasn't handled prosperity very well. The Bucs are 2-11 ATS coming off back-to-back SU wins. Carolina has dominated this division rivalry, getting the green in eight of the last 11 meetings. However, the series dog has cashed in eight of 10 encounters. The Panthers are 3-9 ATS after a SU division road win and 1-6 as home favorites after allowing more than 17 points in September. They have also come up short in 13 of 16 as favorites of between four and seven points. Carolina has strayed below the number in three straight games as division home favorites. The Bucs have gone 'under' in 33 of 48 after allowing 10 points or less.

SEAHAWKS (1-2, 1-1-1) at 49ERS (2-1, 1-1-1)
Seattle is 7-17 as road favorites and 3-12 on the highway when laying 3 1/2 points or less. San Francisco is 8-15 as dogs after failing to cash as dogs and 6-10 ATS at home following a double-digit loss. Seattle had won six straight versus the 49ers (4-2 ATS) until losing and failing in both encounters last year. The 'under' is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.

STEELERS (3-0, 3-0) at CARDINALS (1-2, 2-0-1)
Pittsburgh has cashed four straight and nine of its last 11 dating back to 2006. The Steelers are 16-8-1 ATS off a double-digit win. However, they are 1-7 as road favorites off a double-digit SU win and 6-16-1 as non-division away favorites. Pittsburgh has 'covered' at a 13-2-1 clip as non-conference chalk overall. Arizona is 7-18 ATS at home in September and it has floundered in 10 of 12 as non-conference dogs of more than three points.

CHIEFS (1-2, 2-1) at CHARGERS (1-2, 1-2)
The home team has held the aces in the AFC West rivalry, getting the cheese at a 7-1-1 rate. The SU winner is 21-3-2 ATS. San Diego is 13-3 as home favorites in September. The Chargers have 'covered' 12 of 15 off a non-division game versus an opponent with revenge. Kansas City is 2-7 as division road dogs. The Chiefs have eclipsed the 'total' at a 21-13-1 clip as short-enders. However, San Diego has slipped 'under' in 14 of 20 as division home chalk.




EAGLES (1-2, 1-2) at GIANTS (1-2, 1-2)
Philadelphia has cashed six of its last eight against the New York Giants. The Eagles have prospered on the road against division foes, getting the money in 18 of 27. The Giants have cashed 29 of 44 after winning SU as underdogs. Nine of the last dozen series encounters have been on the low side. Philadelphia has ducked 'under' in seven of nine as division road favorites and New York has followed suit at a 10-2-1 rate as division home dogs. The Eagles have slipped 'under' in 11 of 14 after scoring 28 points or more.

PATRIOTS (3-0, 3-0) at BENGALS (1-2, 1-1-1)
Cincinnati would appear to have faint hope when it hosts New England, the hottest team on Planet NFL. However, the Bengals have 'covered' six of eight as dogs of six points or more and the Patriots are a dismal 4-17 ATS when playing their second road game of the season. New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins and 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less. The Pats are also 9-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. Cincinnati is 15-32 ATS at home in September. The Bengals have failed to 'cover' seven of eight versus non-division opponents when playing on Monday.

More tools, odds, and trends found here!

Who will win Monday Night Football

The New Orleans gruesome 0-2 start brings to mind William Shatner. Not for his Captain Kirk role on Star Trek, nor as the sex-crazed lawyer on Boston Legal. Instead for his role on VH1, “One hit wonders”.

Sean Payton was the next great genius coach coming down the pipeline last season, if he were to lose to Tennessee tonight in the home opener at the Super Dome; he might start to take on the look of Chumbawumba from 1997 for its one hit song “Tubthumper”.

New Orleans has been torched for 72 points in first two games and has been outscored by exactly 48 points. That might work in Buffalo; however they didn’t play in a conference championship game last season. “We’ve got to stay the course but play together,” Payton said in typical coach speak. “The big thing is that they [the players] don’t sense panic. Our job as coaches is to make them relax so they can just play.” One of the staff’s first jobs is get the ball more to Deuce McAllister, who has two less carries than Reggie Bush.

This is not a good development since the Deuce is the foundation of the offense. The more and better he runs the ball, the better the Saints offense is. He sets up all the other elements of the Saints game, allowing Payton to be creative in play-calling.

What has been most noticeable is the ease of which the Saints secondary has been torched, looking more like a five alarm fire giving up 11.5 yards per pass attempt. Every member of the defensive backfield has been pathetic, yet they have received no help from the players up front. New Orleans defenders have yet to register a single sack this season. The only good news is Tennessee prefers to transport the football by way of the running game.

The Titans are top rushing team in the NFL at 211 yards per game, at 5.1 yards per carry. The unlikely duo of Chris Brown and LenDale White is leading the way with Vince Young a wonderful supporting compliment. Young continues to show improvement as a passer, thou the fact remains he probably will never be a great thrower of the pigskin. What he is showing already in his young career is an ability to be competitive and win games.

That ability will carry any team a long way and help job security for a coach. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow also deserves a great deal of credit assembling game plans that work more efficiently with the talent on hand.

A large surprise for the Titans has been the play of the defense, holding opponents’ running games to 76 YPG and 3.8 yards a carry. A subtle but highly effective change has been moving defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch from the right side to the left end position, next to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. This gives coach Jeff Fisher great flexibility to run stunts with these two players and places Vanden Bosh in more one on one situations where he can really rush the passer. Ultimately this frees up linebacker Keith Bullock to make more plays at the point of attack.

New Orleans is a four point favorite at Bookmaker.com down from opening number of 5.5. Playing the Saints as a home favorite is as uncomfortable as listening to Right Said Fred one hit, “I’m Too Sexy”, with 3-10 ATS record the last three seasons. Tennessee is perfectly fitted for a game like this with 12-3 ATS record as an underdog the last couple of seasons.
With this being a Monday night contest, the Saints have the worst record in the history in the NFL at 7-15 (7-14-1 ATS). The Titans are not in the best spot either, since teams playing two Monday night games both on the road like Tennessee are 12-30-1 ATS.
The bye weeks start in Week 4 and each team will have one next weekend. From a system standpoint, this favors New Orleans because any team that allowed 28 or more points in last game and has a bye next is 14-5-1 ATS in this contest.
Kickoff is set for approximately 8:30 Eastern.

Selection: Titans +4

NFL Systems 2-0

In my continuing series analyzing angles for each of the various weeks in the NFL season, I decided to look at the fortunes of teams that are 2-0 headed into Week 3 of the schedule. On average, there are just less than seven teams per season that win their opening two contests. There are 10 this year, and 15-year history shows that 27% of these teams will fall in Week 3. Will your team be one of them? Are they worth wagering on? If so, when are the best spots to either fade or follow these clubs? These are just some of the points I plan to reveal in my Week 3 unbeaten teams study.

Some of the most important concepts to understand about the unbeaten teams heading into their Week 3 games are: 1) Are they at home or on the road, 2) Are they playing an opponent that is also playing well or struggling, 3) Is the unbeaten team thrashing opponents or squeaking out games, and 4) Has the undefeated club won with offense, defense, or both so far?
I’ll reveal some very successful historical patterns that have formed for all four of those important concepts later, but for now, here are some of the basic records on 2-0 teams, based on where they are playing and the record of the opponent they are facing.

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams are 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS (64%)· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams are 12-10 SU & 14-8 ATS (64%)· 2-0 HOME teams facing 0-2 ROAD teams are 9-0 SU & 4-4-1 ATS (50%), with an average line of –11.4.· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams are 17-5 SU but just 9-13 ATS (41%).· In games matching unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams, the HOME teams hold a 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS (61%)

If you add up all the records of the trends noted just above, you’ll find that road teams cover the spread in 56% of games involving an undefeated team. This can be explained by the logic that the oddsmakers are counting on home-field advantage to make the difference in these higher profile games, thus giving the hosts a little extra respect on the pointspread. Think of it like this…if an unbeaten team is coming back home to play a game, public perception would typically tell you that the home team should win again. On the flip side, when said undefeated team hits the road at 2-0, the majority of the fan population would tend to believe that the chances of that team losing its game are good, particularly if it is the teams’ first road game.

With 56% of these games being won ATS by road teams, and three of our basic five angles producing spread success rates of better than 60%, it afforded me the opportunity to apply numerous tighteners to the trends, thus generating even higher winning percentages. The best results from that tightening process are listed below. Use these trends to apply to your own handicapping routine on Sunday and Monday night.

· 2-0 HOME teams taking on 0-2 ROAD teams, when favored by 10 points or less, are 4-0 SU & ATS (100%).Analysis: Oddsmakers clearly aren’t giving enough consideration to the momentum generated by the unbeaten and winless teams in the first two weeks. Games that could be accompanied by double-digit spreads are not and home teams have capitalized at a 4-0 clip.Plays for ’07: WASHINGTON

· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams, when favored by 6 points or less, are just 3-8 ATS (27%).Analysis: There seems to be a good reason that these 2-0 hosts are only favored by small margins over their 1-1 opponents. Most likely, these home teams either aren’t as good as their 2-0 start, or their road opponent might have lost one of its two games either in heartbreaking fashion or to another elite club. In any case, it is the road teams that hold the edge in this scenario.Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY, DENVER

· In battles between unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 5-1 SU & ATS (100%) when favored by 5-points or more.Analysis: Exactly the opposite of the situation described just above. In this case, it is the 2-0 road team that may be undeserving of its undefeated record. Oddsmakers have perceptively picked up on it, installing them as sizeable underdogs for the showdown. These games clearly turn out to be better on paper than on the field, with the hosts winning five of six games by an average score of 24.8-9.5. With such a low total score for the road teams in these games, keep an eye on the UNDERs as well.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH

· The HOME team holds a 2-0 SU & ATS (100%) edge in Week 3 showdowns between undefeated inter-conference opponents.Analysis: Not only do the hosts hold an edge in games with undefeated teams and large pointspreads, they also receive a boost from being at hoe again opponents from the opposite conference. Unfamiliarity would figure to be the reason behind this, as the road teams are putting their undefeated marks on the line against teams they know little about.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH ·

In divisional showdowns between unbeaten teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 6-4 & ATS (60%).Analysis: I’m a firm believer that home field advantage means the most in division games, since it is that extra edge that teams rely on when game plans are well known. These teams are well familiar with one another, so scheming doesn’t have as much of an impact as simple execution and motivation. Home field advantage is one of the more prominent motivating factors.Plays for ’07: HOUSTON

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS (83%).Analysis: Albeit due to the desperation level of the home team, or the lack of respect generated by the visitors in their opening two wins, oddsmakers just don’t see enough sometimes to make these unbeaten road teams favorites in the Week 3 game. Clearly that has been a mistake. With an 83% ATS success rate in the last 15 seasons, digging out these teams is well worth the effort if any qualify.Plays for ’07: DETROIT

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS (77%).Analysis: The success rate for unbeaten road teams playing at 1-1 home opponents is even better than that against winless foes. With an 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS record, it has been nearly automatic that these road teams win outright. Keep a close eye on the NFL Week 3 schedule in 2007, since prior to the second week action, there were nine teams that won on opening weekend that will be on the road for these Sunday and Monday games.Plays for ’07: DALLAS

· 2-0 HOME teams are 13-8 ATS (62%) when the wagering action coming in moves the line more in their favor.Analysis: If a home team’s line moves from –6 to –7 in a given week, it is assumed that the public, or sharps in some cases, is backing them enough for oddsmakers to move the line in hopes of drawing action the other way. When the so-called betting public backs these home undefeated teams in Week 3, they beat the number at a 13-8 rate.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams are just 9-11 ATS (45%) when the wagering action favors the road teams.Analysis: The betting public seems to have a good feel for these undefeated home team games in Week 3, beating the books on both sides of the ledger. The bottom line is this…if undefeated home teams are playing in Week 3, history says to follow the money.Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY


· In games concerning 2-0 ROAD teams, when the betting public backs the home team, the road clubs are 8-9 ATS. When the line move favors the road team, the visitors are 9-11 ATS.Analysis: While not overly successful records, these trends would suggest that any type of line move involving games with 2-0 road teams would indicate to play on the hosts. If I could come up with any type of reasonable explanation for it I would. Next…Plays for ’07: WATCH LINE MOVES

· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing more than 15 PPG in their first two contests are 13-5 ATS (72%) in their Week 3 games.Analysis: This trend is somewhat contrarian in nature, but come to think of it, most good systems are too. Undefeated road teams allowing more than 15 PPG are at the bottom end of the defensive scale. Oddsmakers don’t hold them in the same regard as they do those teams that won with early defensive domination. Still, they are unbeaten and tend to stay so after this game.Plays for ’07: DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO

· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing less than 10 PPG in their first two contests are just 7-7 ATS (50%) in their Week 3 games.Analysis: While this is not a trend that will give you any type of advantage over “the man”, I listed it simply so that you could see the difference in the success rates of the strong defensive teams and the rest. The trend above was 13-5 ATS, this one is just 7-7 ATS. In which one do think oddsmakers are giving more credit to the unbeaten road team?Plays for ’07: NONE


· 2-0 ROAD teams scoring more than 25 PPG in their first two contests are 10-4 ATS (71%) as underdogs in Week 3.Analysis: In my own handicapping routine, I love looking for underdogs that can score points. They are the most-lively type of underdogs, the kind that can keep coming at the favorites, regardless of how far they are behind. If you’re lucky enough to pick up on an undefeated road dog this weekend, grab it. There is on average about one opportunity per season.Plays for ’07: DALLAS, INDIANAPOLIS, DETROIT


· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by less than 3 PPG are just 6-6 SU & 4-7 ATS (36%) in Week 3.Analysis: Teams winning their games by less than a field goal margin per contest are living on the edge. In Week 3, they fall off that edge, at least in terms of the pointspread, converting just 36% of the time. Half of the 12 home teams coming into this scenario lost their games outright as well.Plays for ’07: AGAINST DENVER

· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 8-4 SU but just 4-8 ATS (33%) in Week 3.Analysis: This is the classic example of what makes the NFL tough to beat on a consistent basis. A trap of all traps, even the most dominant teams of the season’s first two weeks playing at home don’t turn out to be solid bets in Week 3. What makes matters worse is that more often than not, these teams win the games on the scoreboard but demonstrate little regard for their backers’ betting tickets.Plays for ’07: AGAINST PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 0-2 ATS when playing as double-digit favorites, and 0-4 ATS as favorites of less than 4 points.Analysis: These trends are also a couple traps that bettors tend to fall for. In my opinion, the double-digit favorite in the early going can be a poison pill in the NFL. In a league filled with parity, betting such lines early in the season just doesn’t make a lot of sense. On the other side of the coin, 2-0 home teams when playing as small favorites don’t make for good bets either. Remember, there is a reason they aren’t favored by a larger number.Plays for ’07: AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams scoring more than 33 PPG are 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in Week 3, regardless of the opponent.Analysis: In saving the best for last, I’ve focused in on the truly elite teams in the early going. These are the teams putting up the big numbers in the first two weeks and looking truly “Super”, as in Super Bowl bound. A Week 3 game at home for these prolific offensive teams has been nearly automatic, so be sure to check the NFL team stats after the Week 2 games. Perhaps New England, hosting Buffalo, might qualify?Plays for ’07: NEW ENGLAND

Entire Article HERE

NFL Week 3 First Glance

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Arizona at Baltimore (-9)
Why Cardinals cover: Both of Arizona’s first two games were decided by three points. Edgerrin James is running like the Edge of old (220 yards in two games). Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Why Ravens cover: Expected to have starting QB Steve McNair back from groin injury. Fourth-ranked defense only allowing 62 yards per game on the ground.
Total (35): Over is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight games.

Buffalo at New England (-17)
Why Bills cover: After destroying rivals New York in Week 1 and Super Bowl-hopeful San Diego last week, the Pats could be primed for a letdown against the 0-2 Bills, a game they might have a hard time getting excited about.

Why Patriots cover: Have been an offensive juggernaut so far forcing opponents to abandon their game plans and play from behind, something Buffalo doesn’t do well. The Bills’ biggest offensive threat, wideout Lee Evans, has 22 yards receiving to date.
Total (42): Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in New England.

Detroit at Philadelphia (-6 ½)

Why Lions cover: Get to play Philly coming off a short week after their loss to Washington on Monday night. Donovan McNabb’s comments this week that black quarterbacks face more criticism show that he could be feeling the heat from his poor play. Philadelphia fans will be relentless if he struggles early. Pro Bowl safety Brian Dawkins suffered a neck stinger and could be limited on game day.

Why Eagles cover: Nowhere to go but up after dropping first two games. Solid pass defense can contain Detroit’s star receivers and force the Lions to beat them on the ground, something offensive co-coordinator Mike Martz doesn’t like to do.

Total (44): Over is 8-2 in Detroit’s last 10 road games.

Indianapolis at Houston (+6)
Why Colts cover: Will want to bounce back after almost blowing a 13-point lead to the Titans on Sunday. With New England stealing the spotlight from the Super Bowl champs, expect the offense to come out firing. Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Why Texans cover: Started 2-0 for the first time in franchise history. Beat the Colts by a field goal in their final meeting last season. Will want to prove that they can challenge Indy for the AFC South crown. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall. Total (48): Under is 5-1 in Colts last six games overall.

Miami at N.Y. Jets (-3)
Why Dolphins cover: Running back Ronnie Brown torched the Jets for 237 yards and a score in their two meetings last season. A meeting with the league’s 22nd-ranked pass defense could spark Trent Green who has been plagued by inconsistency so far as a Dolphin.

Why Jets cover: Chad Pennington has won his last five starts against Miami and should be back under center after missing last week with a sprained ankle. The Dolphins’ running game has been non-existent, managing only 63.5 yards per game. Miami has only covered in four of their last 23 meetings with the Jets.
Total (35): Over is 10-3-1 in the Jets’ last 14 home games.

Minnesota at Kansas City (-3)
Why Vikings cover: Minnesota’s defense has 10 sacks through two games and should be able to feast on the immobile Damon Huard while 300 pound-plus run stoppers Kevin and Pat Williams clog up the middle limiting Larry Johnson’s room to run.

Why Chiefs cover: Vikings’ quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is coming off a loss to the Lions in which he was intercepted four times and could miss Week 3 with a groin injury. If he is out, Brooks Bollinger would get the nod for Minnesota. Kansas City is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Total: (33): Under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games and 4-1 in the Vikings’ last five.

San Diego at Green Bay (+4 ½)

Why Chargers cover: Have a lot to prove after an embarrassing 38-14 loss Sunday night at New England. Shawne Merriman and the Chargers’ 10th ranked pass defense could handcuff Brett Favre forcing the Packers to rely on a ground game that is still lacking an identity since Ahman Green landed in Houston. Could be one of those games that Favre tries to force the ball into double-coverage and gets picked off more than once.

Why Packers cover: Green Bay has won five of the last six meetings with San Diego. Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games while the Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five.
Total (43): Under is 4-1 in Packers’ last five home games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-9)
Why 49ers cover: The 2-0 Niners are brimming with confidence after beating division rivals in their first two games. They'll carry that momentum into Pittsburgh. Running back Frank Gore ran for two TDs on Sunday, just three days after the death of his mother and could be a man possessed for the rest of the season. Are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Why Steelers cover: Pittsburgh has won eight of their last ten games going back to last season and appears to be as strong under Mike Tomlin as they were with Bill Cowher. Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Total (38): Under is 5-1 in 49ers’ last six road games.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3 ½)
Why Rams cover: St. Louis fell two feet short of beating the 49ers in Week 2 when Jeff Wilkins’ 56-yard field goal attempt didn’t have quite enough leg. At 0-2 the Rams are in danger of falling well behind the rest of the NFC West with another loss. Marc Bulger has looked good so far this season with 535 yards passing, two TDs and no interceptions.

Why Buccaneers cover: Bulger has been sacked seven times in two games so far and will face a Bucs defense that punished the Saints in a convincing 31-14 victory last week. Steven Jackson has yet to get going and is only averaging 3 yards per carry. Rams are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Tampa Bay.
Total (38): Under is 7-3 in St. Louis’ last 10 road games.

Cincinnati at Seattle (-3 ½)

Why Bengals cover: Will want to rebound from embarrassing 51-45 loss to the Browns in Cleveland. Shaun Alexander will wear a cast on his sprained wrist which could affect the way he carries the ball and how tentative he runs. Bengals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Why Seahawks cover: Cincinnati has a porous defense that is allowing an ugly 434 yards per game, something the Seahawks offense will be looking to exploit. Seattle is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Total (50): Under is 4-0 in Seahawks’ last four home games and 4-0 in their last four games on field turf.

Cleveland at Oakland (-3)
Why Browns cover: New starting QB Derek Anderson passed for 328 yards and an incredible five touchdowns in Week 2 and seems to have silenced the Brady Quinn rumors for now. Raiders QB Josh McCown was not as fortunate, throwing three picks last Sunday prompting head coach Lane Kiffin to call the passing game “embarrassing.” Sebastian Janikowski has only converted one of five field goal attempts this year. Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on grass. Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

Why Raiders cover: Oakland played Denver tight last week before losing by a field goal in overtime. LaMont Jordan, who seems to have put his injuries and poor play from last season behind him, has 49 touches in two games and is carrying the load for Oakland. Cleveland ranks dead last in the league in defense, giving up 448 yards per game.
Total (40): Under is 10-3 in Oakland’s last 13 games on grass and 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.

Jacksonville at Denver (-3)

Why Jaguars cover: Jacksonville’s second-ranked pass defense should make it hard for Jay Cutler and the Broncos aerial attack, and with nine sacks in two games, the Jags should be able to pressure the young quarterback all day. Denver is 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC.

Why Broncos cover: Denver leads the league in total offense and is second in total defense. Maurice Jones-Drew could be out with an undisclosed injury meaning 31-year-old Fred Taylor would get the bulk of the carries. Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
Total (36): Jacksonville has only managed 23 points total this season.

Carolina at Atlanta (+4)
Why Panthers cover: Atlanta signed Byron Leftwich this week suggesting they have soured on current starting QB Joey Harrington. Falcons have only scored 10 points total in two games this season. Former strength was running game which has been non-existent in 2007 (89 yards per game).

Why Falcons cover: After playing the first two games on the road they will be happy to get back home. Panthers are 5-12-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
Total (36 ½): Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between the two.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (-4)
Why Giants cover: Redskins offense is vulnerable with second-year quarterback Jason Campbell prone to throwing interceptions. Eli Manning looks healed following his shoulder injury from Week 1 and has raised his quarterback rating a full 20 points from last year. With 90 yards on 15 carries, Derrick Ward has filled in admirably for injured running back Brandon Jacobs.

Why Redskins cover: Are only giving up 12 ½ points per game. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the favorite going 5-0 ATS in their last five.
Total (40 ½): Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Washington.

Dallas at Chicago (-3)
Why Cowboys cover: Tony Romo has been spectacular to date and is showing no ill-effects from his gaffe that cost the Cowboys a chance to advance in last year’s playoffs. Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games while Chicago is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Why Bears cover: Cowboys’ already thin receiving corps took another hit when Patrick Crayton dislocated his pinky finger against the Dolphins. Home team has won each of the last five meetings. Chicago only allowing 73.5 yards per game on the ground.
Total (41 ½): Over is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games on grass and 8-2-2 in their last 12 road games.

Tennessee at New Orleans (-4 ½)
Why Titans cover: New Orleans is giving up 36 points per game with teams terrorizing cornerback Jason David who came over from the Colts in the offseason. Have a nice one-two punch with running backs LenDale White and Chris Brown who have combined to rush for 339 yard in the first two games. Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 overall.

Why Saints cover: Everyone remembers the Saints’ emotional home opener last year that propelled them to a surprising 10-6 record in 2006. Emotions will again be running high as New Orleans comes home after losing their first two games of the season on the road. Crowd noise could boost the Saints and rattle Vince Young.

Total (45): Over is 4-0 in the Titans’ last four games on field turf and 4-1 in Saints’ last five games overall.

Monday Night Football Redskins At Eagles

Selections for tonight

Washington +7
Over 38.5

The one thing you can expect tonight is a ton of scoring by both teams as the Eagles look to bounce back from being hushed in game one by the Packers. The Redskins look to go 2-0 and it would be a huge win at philly. Watch the blitz packages in full force tonight by the Eagles and this will allow the Skins to get one on one deep and open it up for easy touchdowns. There are always some turnovers in this rivalry and that will lead to big scoring.

Week2 Selections

7) San Francisco +3

The Rams are a different team without Pace and it showed last week. When he left the ballgame the game went south and the Panthers took over. This should be a high scoring affair but I give the edge to the niners because they are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The Rams have lost 15 of 23 ATS after a SU and ATS loss.

6) Tampa Bay +3

(IF Garcia plays)The Saints last week looked very bad on defense and this was not a fluke, nor because they were playing the Colts. The Bucs are a good home divisional puppy and are 15-6-1 ATS after scoring 10 or less. They win the home opener.

5) Under 39 Carolina / Houston

This has all the makings of a defensive battle. The under is 17-6 in the first two weeks for the Panthers because they focus on defense and ball control. They run into a team that plays just like them and have gone under 18 out of 27 times as a road dog.

4) Miami +3

The Cowboys defense looked very bad against a Giant team that is not very good offensively so that will allow the Dolphins to stay in this game. The Dolphins have a respectable defense and a home opener as a live dog.

3) Washington / Philly Over 39 (MNF)

The Eagles offense looked pathetic last week but they are much better than it showed last week. This Monday night game will turn in into a shoot out. Washington will keep this close and the points will fly on in.

2) Arizona +3

The Cardinals looked great on defense last week and shutdown superstar Gore last week and if they do it aganst the Seahawks it can be a long day for the birds. Edge looked great and he will run to establish the pass and the wideouts for the birds will win this game in an upset. The Seahawks are horrible road chalk going 7-16 as road favorites and 3-12 ATS when laying 3 or less on the road.

1) Detroit -3

Another game where last weeks may have fooled you as the Vikings looked great against the hapless Falcons. The Vikings offense scored not one but two defensive TD’s and the offense will have a tough time keeping up with the 4 wide set of the high scoring Lions. The Vikings are 7-13 AS in the last 20 road openers and will get crushed on Sunday.

NFL News and Notes

News & Notes For week 2





Check back for Selections on Tomorrow's games!

Atlanta at Jacksonville


The Jaguars have won two of their three matchups with the Falcons. Atlanta, though, won the last meeting 21-14 at home on Decemeber 28, 2003.





Cincinnati at ClevelandIn a November 26 win at Cleveland, Chad Johnson had seven catches for 123 yards, while Carson Palmer - seeking to go 6-1 against the Browns - completed 25 of 32 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns.





Houston at CarolinaThe Texans won 14-10 at home in their only meeting with the Panthers on Nov.ember 2, 2003. Jake Delhomme, though, has won five of his last seven games against AFC opponents, throwing for 10 touchdowns in those contests.






New Orleans at Tampa BayJoey Galloway caught two touchdown passes in the Bucs' most recent victory over New Orleans, a 27-13 home win on January 1, 2006.





Buffalo at PittsburghThe Steelers also have a favorable record against the Bills, winning six of seven home meetings and leading the series 10-8 overall. Pittsburgh has won two straight and six of the last seven meetings, taking the most recent matchup 29-24 at Buffalo on January 2, 2005.The Bills have lost five straight in Pittsburgh, although they haven't played there since Septemeber 19, 1996.





Green Bay at N.Y. GiantsThe Giants have not opened a season with consecutive losses since starting 0-3 in 1996.Green Bay was 5-3 on the road last season, and has won its last two games against the Giants at the Meadowlands.In the last meeting between these teams on October 3, 2004, the Giants won 14-7 at Lambeau Field. Brett Favre threw for 110 yards, a touchdown and an interception, but was taken out of the game in the third quarter after suffering a concussion on the first drive of the second half.All-time against New York, Favre is 3-2, throwing for 1,112 yards, seven TDs and four interceptions.






Indianapolis at TennesseeThe Colts have won the last four AFC South titles, but December's loss to Tennessee snapped a 12-game winning streak against division opponents.





San Francisco at St. LouisFrank Gore has four touchdowns in his last three games against St. Louis and rushed for 261 yards in two meetings last season.San Francisco, which went 3-5 on the road last season, plays at Pittsburgh next week, then faces four straight 2006 playoff teams. After Sunday, St. Louis plays four of its next five on the road.





Dallas at MiamiTrent Green, who began his career with Dallas' NFC East rival Washington, has lost all three of his starts versus the Cowboys despite posting a respectable 83.5 passer rating in those games.The Dolphins have won seven of 10 regular-season meetings with the Cowboys, including a 40-21 victory at Texas Stadium on Thanksgiving Day in 2003 - the most recent meeting. The Cowboys, though, won 29-10 in their last visit to Miami on October 27, 1996.





Minnesota at DetroitMinnesota, which led the NFL in rush defense last season, held Atlanta to 96 yards on the ground, the 14th time in the last 15 games it has held an opponent under 100 yards rushing.Detroit went 2-6 at home last season while Minnesota was 3-5 on the road. The Vikings are 5-0 at Ford Field.





Seattle at ArizonaThe Seahawks are looking for their fourth 2-0 start in five years, while the Cardinals are hoping to avoid opening 0-2 for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Arizona won its season opener last season before dropping its next eight games.






N.Y. Jets at BaltimoreThe Ravens went 7-1 at home last year, allowing an average of 12.0 points in those games.





Kansas City at ChicagoKansas City lost its last trip to Soldier Field, 20-17 on September 12, 1999. The Chiefs are 4-5 all-time versus Chicago.The Bears are trying to win their third consecutive home opener.





Oakland at DenverDenver has won its last seven home openers since a 38-21 loss to Miami on September 13, 1999. The Broncos have won four straight over the Raiders since a 25-24 loss on November 28, 2004, and limited them to 16 points in sweeping last year's series.





San Diego at New EnglandSan Diego quarterback Philip Rivers struggled against the Patriots in January, completing only 14 of 32 passes for 230 yards and one interception while also losing a fumble. He was 22-for-31 for 190 yards with an interception against the Bears last week.





Washington at PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia has won nine of the last 11 meetings with Washington. The only two losses came during the Eagles' disastrous 6-10 season in 2005 - the only year of the previous six they failed to win the division

Patriots Steal signs from Jets

Patriots found guilty of cheating!

According to league sources, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has determined that the New England Patriots violated league rules when it videotaped defensive signals by New York Jets coaches during the Patriots' 38-14 win Sunday. There will be a hearing with the Patriots -- mostly likely by phone by the end of the week -- and then a ruling by the commissioner that could cost New England draft picks. Here are some questions and answers on the incident:
What is the commissioner's stance?Such spying is a serious infraction. It's cheating and could affect the outcome of games. Goodell established a strict player conduct policy, and he wants coaches and team employees to also live up to a high standard.

What rules did the Patriots allegedly violate?The "Game Operations Manual" states that "no video recording devices of any kind are permitted to be in use in the coaches' booth, on the field, or in the locker room during the game." The manual states that "all video shooting locations must be enclosed on all sides with a roof overhead." NFL security officials confiscated a camera and videotape from a New England video assistant on the Patriots' sideline when it was suspected he was recording the Jets' defensive signals. Taping any signals is prohibited. The toughest part usually is finding evidence to support an allegation.

What could the punishment be?Goodell must come down hard on this one because he clearly has evidence. ESPN has reported that Goodell is considering severe sanctions, including the possibility of docking the Patriots "multiple draft picks." That could mean a combination of a second-rounder and something else, maybe a fifth-rounder. The commissioner could push the penalty over two years, but he can't treat this lightly by just taking away a second-day draft choice. The Patriots are good. They had only two draft choices -- a first- and a second-round pick -- make the team this season. Fining them just a fourth-round choice wouldn't hurt them much.

What advantage could a coach get by stealing defensive signals?Any good coach with knowledge of the defensive play calls from the sideline can adjust his blocking schemes and come up with the appropriate counter measures. You've seen quarterbacks and coaches study photos of defensive alignments after each possession. If there is a way to pick up defensive signals, a quarterback can make the right audibles and get out of a bad play. Knowledge is everything.
Belichick is the best in the business at taking information and turning it into strategy. He's the best coach in football at knowing the strength and the weakness of a player and putting him in a position to succeed. Give him a signal or two and he will know how to burn a team with a big play at the right time. A coach that smart is always looking for an edge.

Why will owners be upset about this?First, many owners may feel Belichick beat them by cheating. That may be hard to take, but that's life. What is going to upset them even more is this incident could cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars. This incident will probably lead to having a defensive player on the field with a radio helmet to receive defensive signals from the sideline. Using hand signals to relay defensive calls is an outdated concept. The offense can use modern technology. Why can't defenders? It's going to cost money to equip defenders. Thanks to this incident, owners may have to start paying for that advancement next year.

What will be Belichick's defense?That's hard to say because there won't be an open hearing. In fact, the hearing is supposed to be done by phone as early as late this week. The commissioner doesn't have to supply details of the Patriots' position. He just has to render a decision. Bringing Belichick to New York would be a circus. There is no reason to have a circus involving this one. The video either says the Patriots were spying or not. Goodell will listen to Belichick's defense and then deliver his penalty.

What will be the longterm effect on Belichick and the Patriots?Although this is embarrassing, you can't take away what this franchise can do. They may have the best team in football. Robert Kraft is one of the league's best owners. The team has three Super Bowl rings and a great chance to get a fourth. Other great organizations have paid penalties for violating league rules. The Broncos lost a draft choice for violating the salary cap with John Elway. The Steelers once had to forfeit a third-round draft choice for working out in shoulder pads in the offseason. The Patriots may lose a draft choice or two. And whether or not the Patriots videotaped the Jets' defensive signals, Belichick won't be any less of a coach.

NFL First Look: Week 2

Tuesday is when I take the first look at what the upcoming week will have to offer.

Dallas at Miami



Dallas is one of the elite teams in the National Football Conference and it opened the season with a home win over the New York Giants. Miami was a last place team in 2006 and is rebuilding with a new coach and a new quarterback. So it's certainly no surprise that the Cowboys will be favored when they hit the road for the first time this Sunday to face the Dolphins.
That doesn't mean Dallas is a cinch to get out of town with a victory. The Cowboys have had a tough time on the road against American Football Conference squads, failing to get the cheddar in 15 of 20 chances. Dallas has come up short at a 15-4-1 ATS clip on the highway after scoring 30 points or more and failed to cash at a 15-5-1 rate coming off a double-digit division win.
The Cowboys do have a couple of strong trends that point in their direction. They are 23-12-1 as road favorites of seven points or less and 15-6 ATS on the highway after allowing 30 points or more.
Miami has flushed its supporter's money down the drain on a regular basis at home. The Dolphins are 9-23 ATS in the Sunshine State since 2003. They have also failed to cash in eight of their last 11 home openers. Yet they have prospered against the NFC, getting the green in seven of nine as underdogs.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 2 menu appear below.
Bet the game here:



BILLS at STEELERS
Pittsburgh has cashed seven of its last nine against Buffalo, though this is just the fourth meeting since '99. The Steelers are 17-7 ATS at home after winning by 14 points or more and 25-13-2 ATS off a double-digit division win. However, they are only 4-10-1 in their last 15 home openers. The Bills have 'covered' 14 of 16 in Week 2 and they are 9-4 as road dogs versus a non-division foe off a loss. Pittsburgh has zipped 'over' in 14 of 15 at Heinz Field and in 11 of its last 14 as favorites.

BENGALS at BROWNS
Cincinnati has won five straight series meetings with Cleveland (4-1 against the spread) and in its last two visits prevailed by a combined score of 57-13. The Bengals have been a solid investment as road chalk, cashing in 10 of 13. The Browns are 8-17 ATS versus division foes and they have dropped 12 of their last 14 spread decisions in September. They have been able to get the green in 14 of 21 as dogs during the first month of the season. Seven of the last eight clashes in Cleveland have been on the low side. Cincinnati has slipped below the number in their last 10 games as division road favorites. The Browns have knuckled 'under' at a 19-8-1 clip as home dogs of three points or more.

COLTS at TITANS
Indianapolis will be looking for revenge after losing at Tennessee in its last visit as 7 ½-point favorites, 20-17. The Colts have cashed at a 9-3-2 clip in their last 14 road openers and they are 12-2 as road chalk in September. The Titans are 11-3 as dogs the past two seasons. However, they are 1-9-1 ATS after a win by three points or less. Indianapolis had 'covered' six straight against Tennessee before falling short in both 2007 encounters. The last four series tussles have tiptoed under the total. The Titans have eclipsed the total in 13 of 14 after scoring and allowing 14 points or less in their last game and they have been on the high side in 13 of 14 after a road win by three points or less.

Bet the Game Here;



TEXANS at PANTHERS
Houston has its sights set on winning four in a row for the first time in franchise history. The Texans have failed to cash 16 of 21 following a straight up victory and 11 of 13 after a home success. Carolina is 4-12 as home favorites and 6-11 ATS after winning by 14 points or more. The Panthers have slipped below the total in 12 of 16 games during the first four weeks of the season. Houston has been on the low side in 18 of 27 as road dogs.

49ERS at RAMS
San Francisco has 'covered' five straight against St. Louis and come away with the money in 20 of 28 series showdowns. The Niners have also cashed 10 of 13 under the Jones Dome. The Rams have failed to cash 15 of 23 following a SU&ATS loss. They have also stumbled at a 13-2-1 clip as division favorites. The dog has 'covered' in six of the past seven series encounters and the SU winner is 20-3-1 ATS.

PACKERS at GIANTS
Green Bay has a dismal 1-10 ATS mark as road dogs versus teams from the NFC-East. Injury-riddled New York is 14-2 ATS after scoring 35 points or more and 7-1 ATS off a straight up loss to a division foe. However, they have flopped in eight of nine ATS the week before facing Washington. The Giants have zipped 'over' at a 29-18-1 clip as favorites after a SU loss. The Packers have been on the low side at a 15-4-1 rate after winning SU as a dog.

FALCONS at JAGUARS
Jacksonville has been a wise investment at home versus NFC opposition. The Jaguars have cashed 17 of 23 versus non-conference foes at Municipal Stadium and 12 of 16 as non-conference chalk overall. They are also 13-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 points or less. Atlanta is 6-11-1 as underdogs versus AFC teams. The Falcons have gone 'under' in eight of their last nine road games and in nine of 10 on grass. Jacksonville has been on the low side in 14 of 16 after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game.

SAINTS at BUCS
Tampa Bay had won four of six and 'covered' five of six against New Orleans before taking it on the chin in last year's season finale at home, 31-14. The visitor in this NFC-South rivalry has 'covered' at a 12-3-1 pace. The Saints are 10-3 as division road favorites and they have cashed 20 of their last 23 on the highway against division foes overall. The Bucs are 15-6-1 ATS after scoring 10 points or less.

VIKINGS at LIONS
Minnesota has won 10 straight versus Detroit and 'covered' four in a row. The Vikings are 7-13 ATS in their last 20 road openers. The Lions are 10-20 as home favorites. The 'over' has cashed in 11 of the past 15 meetings in the Motor City. Minnesota has topped the total in 36 of its last 55 on the road against division rivals.




SEAHAWKS at CARDS
Seattle had won four straight and seven of eight (6-2 ATS) against Arizona until failing in its last visit as three-point favorites, 27-21. The Seahawks are 7-16 as road favorites and 3-12 on the highway when laying 3 ½-pointsor less. However, the Cardinals are 3-18 as home dogs during the first month of the season. The SU winner is the series is 13-1 ATS. The last five series shootouts have been on the high side.

JETS at RAVENS
The New York Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road openers. The Jets have lost and failed in nine of their last dozen on the road versus a non-division opponent and in seven of eight ATS off a double-digit loss. Baltimore has faced the Jets five times in the last 10 seasons, getting the 'cover' each time and winning four straight. The Ravens are 11-2 as home favorites the first two weeks of the season and 22-5 as non-division home chalk.

RAIDERS at BRONCOS
Denver has won seven of eight versus Oakland, though it failed to get the money in both meetings last season after cashing in five of six. The Raiders are 1-14-1 after suffering a SU loss as favorites and they have dropped 22 of 33 spread decisions on the road. The Broncos are 12-5-2 as division home favorites, though they have stumbled in their last six versus AFC-West rivals the past two seasons. Oakland has slithered 'under' in 12 of its last 16 on the road and in six straight on the highway versus division rivals. The Raiders have also taken the low road in 11 of 13 as short-enders away from home.

CHIEFS at BEARS
Kansas City is 5-13 SU and 4-13-1 ATS on the road against NFC foes. Conversely, Chicago has clicked in 13 of 16 ATS when facing teams from the NFC-West and in 17 of 22 at home versus AFC outfits. The Bears have also cashed 17 of 22 at home following a double-digit road loss. They have failed in 12 of 18 as home favorites during the first four weeks of the season. The Chiefs are 19-7 ATS following a blowout road loss by 14 points or more. Chicago has gone above the total in nine of 10 as home favorites. Kansas City has ducked 'under' in 21 of 29 in the first two weeks of the season.

CHARGERS at PATS
San Diego has cashed at a 10-4-1 clip on the road after allowing 10 points or less. New England is 8-1 ATS in Beantown off a double-digit division win. The Patriots have slipped 'under' in seven of 10 home openers and in 16 of 23 at Gillette Stadium after a win by seven points or more.

SKINS at EAGLES
Washington has cashed 25 of 35 as road dogs of 3 ½ to seven points. The Skins have also 'covered' 10 of their last 15 on the road versus division competition. Philadelphia has won 11 of its last 15 versus Washington at home. The Eagles are 9-2 ATS at home after a loss by three points or less. The underdog has barked in four of the past five series showdowns. Washington has strayed below the number in its last seven Monday night appearances. The Skins have also been on the low side in 20 of 28 during the first two weeks of the season.

All information and more can be found here.

Monday night Football

Monday Night Football Previews and Picks Previews

brought to you by SBG Global, the worlds most exciting Sportsbook!

NFL Betting Preview

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Monday, 7:00 pm Eastern – ESPN
SBG Global Opening Line: Bengals -2.5, Total 40

The first game of a Monday night football doubleheader takes place in Cincinnati tonight as the Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati was a big disappointment a year ago as they finished 8-8 after being pegged as a possible Super Bowl contender. The Bengals have a star quarterback in Carson Palmer, excellent wide receivers in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and a solid running back in Rudi Johnson. If they can play defense, then the Bengals have a chance to make a lot of noise this season. SBG Global reports that early betting has the public taking the favored Bengals at home.

Palmer threw for a career-high 4,035 yards and 28 touchdowns a year ago but he wants more this season. "You want guys on your team that you know you can count on, guys that are going to be here to play week in and week out," said Palmer, "When it's crunch time, you know they're going to make the right decisions. Whether it's crunch time and they're being peer-pressured to do something outside of football, or it's crunch time on third down and you have to make a play."

The Ravens know that the Bengals have an offense that can move the ball effectively. “Anytime you play a team in our division, it’s tough,” said defensive tackle Kelly Gregg. “They have one of the best offensive lines around. They’ve got a center that has some experience, two big guards and the tackles [are good]. They are one of the best offenses in the NFL, and it definitely starts with the offensive line.”

SBG Global Current Line: Bengals -3 (+105), Total 40 (-115)

The Ravens are coming off a franchise-best 13-3 record last year. The offense was a problem for the Ravens though as they averaged just 22.1 points per game and only scored 6 points in the loss to the Colts in the playoffs. "You use it as a motivation, you use it as a challenge," coach Brian Billick said. "You recognize what you did well, you identify what it is that left you with that feeling. That's what we're about to rectify." Quarterback Steve McNair threw for 3,050 yards and 16 touchdowns a year ago, "When you think of the Baltimore Ravens, you're going to think about the defense. And that's one of the things we want to overcome," McNair said. "We can be that great offense. We can be that balanced team. We know we've proven that last year and we want to prove that more this year."

The Ravens dumped Jamal Lewis in the off-season and brought in Willis McGahee who they got in a trade from the Buffalo Bills. "He came here for one reason: to run the ball and make our offense better," wide receiver Derrick Mason said. "I think he did that as soon as he got here." The

The Baltimore defense is always good led by linebacker Ray Lewis but they did lose linebacker Adalius Thomas to the New England Patriots. "As much as they hated to lose Adalius Thomas, this group is very confident that it can reformulate itself," Billick said.

The home team won both games last year. The Bengals have won four of the last five overall. The Ravens have not won at Cincinnati since 2003.

The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Ravens are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games.

The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on Grass. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Bengals are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite. The Bengals are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between the two teams and the home team 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

The Over is 4-1 in the Ravens last 5 Monday games. The Under is 15-5-1 in the Ravens last 21 games as an underdog. The Under is 6-2 in the Ravens last 8 games overall. The Under is 16-6-3 in the Ravens last 25 vs. the AFC. The Under is 21-8-1 in the Ravens last 30 games in September. The Under is 18-7-2 in the Ravens last 27 road games. The Under is 36-15-1 in the Ravens last 52 games as a road underdog.

The Under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games as a favorite. The Under is 6-1 in the Bengals last 7 games overall. The Under is 5-1 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The Under is 4-1 in the Bengals last 5 games on Grass. The Under is 10-3 in the Bengals last 13 games in September. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams.

Selection: Bengals -3

NFL Betting Preview

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, 10:15 pm Eastern – ESPN
SBG Global Opening Line: 49ers -3 (-120), Total 45

Two teams that a lot of people are expecting to improve meet tonight in San Francisco in the second half of ESPN’s Monday Night Football doubleheader. The 49ers begin the season with high expectations after improving from 4-12 to 7-9 last year under head coach Mike Nolan. The 49ers made a number of excellent off-season moves and are expected to challenge for a playoff spot this season. SBG Global reports that early betting has the public taking the favored 49ers at home.

The 49ers signed cornerback Nate Clements to the biggest defensive contract in NFL history, a six-year, $60 million deal. They also got former Pro Bowl safety Michael Lewis from Philadelphia. "I want to be here when we turn it around and get this franchise back to the place it's supposed to be," Clements said. "I wanted to be part of the building process. The 49ers are one of the great organizations in this league, and it's time to get us back there." The 49ers also picked up receivers Darrell Jackson from Seattle and Ashley Lelie from Denver. They should give quarterback Alex Smith even more options to go along with Frank Gore, who led the NFC with 1,695 rushing yards last year. "The new guys that we've added have created a much higher level of competition," Nolan said. "Our guys are going into this season expecting to win. In our previous two years here, we hoped to win and we prepared to win. Now we have to believe we're going to get this team to the next step, which is to play well enough to challenge for a winning record and the playoffs." The 49ers expect to be better on offense but the bigger concern is the defense that was very weak last season. With Clements and Lewis as part of the team they expect to be better. They also expect that first round draft pick Patrick Willis will help.

SBG Global Current Line: 49ers -3 EV , Total 45.5 (-115)

The Cardinals start the season with high hopes as well. They finished 5-11 last season and got rid of overrated head coach Dennis Green and brought in Ken Whisenhunt who was the offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cardinals definitely have the offensive talent led by quarterback Matt Leinart and receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The Cardinals also have running back Edgerrin James, who needs to do a lot better than last year when he rushed for 1,159 yards and a career-low 3.4 yards per carry. He should get help because the offensive line will have three new starters, including the 5th pick in the NFL draft, right tackle Levi Brown. Leinart should get more time to throw and James should have better holes to run through. Leinart has excellent receivers in Fitzgerald and Boldin, who combined for 152 receptions for 2,149 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. "We are starting to mesh with Matt," Boldin said. "He is starting to get familiar with the new system as well as us, and we are starting to understand what the coaches want from us. I think the more we spread the ball around, the more dangerous we are." The Cardinals also have defensive questions. They ranked 29th in overall defense last season, and 30th against the pass.

The Cardinals have won the last four meetings with the 49ers. In season opening games the 49ers are 11-3 in their last 14 games while Arizona is 1-6 in their last 7.

The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on Grass. The Cardinals are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games in September. The Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings between the two teams.

The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NFC West. The 49ers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Monday games. The 49ers are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite.

The Over is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 games on Grass. The Over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games overall. The Over is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 vs. the NFC. The Over is 27-7 in the Cardinals last 34 games as a road underdog. The Over is 25-8 in the Cardinals last 33 games as an underdog. The Over is 28-9 in the Cardinals last 37 road games. The Over is 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 vs. the NFC West. The Under is 11-5 in the Cardinals last 16 games in September.

The Over is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 Monday games. The Over is 7-0 in the 49ers last 7 games as a home favorite. The Over is 5-1 in the 49ers last 6 games in September. The Over is 8-2 in the 49ers last 10 games on Grass. The Under is 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 vs. the NFC West. The Over is 5-2 in the 49ers last 7 home games. The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the two teams. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

Selection: Arizona +3

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