NFL Week 3 First Glance

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Arizona at Baltimore (-9)
Why Cardinals cover: Both of Arizona’s first two games were decided by three points. Edgerrin James is running like the Edge of old (220 yards in two games). Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Why Ravens cover: Expected to have starting QB Steve McNair back from groin injury. Fourth-ranked defense only allowing 62 yards per game on the ground.
Total (35): Over is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight games.

Buffalo at New England (-17)
Why Bills cover: After destroying rivals New York in Week 1 and Super Bowl-hopeful San Diego last week, the Pats could be primed for a letdown against the 0-2 Bills, a game they might have a hard time getting excited about.

Why Patriots cover: Have been an offensive juggernaut so far forcing opponents to abandon their game plans and play from behind, something Buffalo doesn’t do well. The Bills’ biggest offensive threat, wideout Lee Evans, has 22 yards receiving to date.
Total (42): Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in New England.

Detroit at Philadelphia (-6 ½)

Why Lions cover: Get to play Philly coming off a short week after their loss to Washington on Monday night. Donovan McNabb’s comments this week that black quarterbacks face more criticism show that he could be feeling the heat from his poor play. Philadelphia fans will be relentless if he struggles early. Pro Bowl safety Brian Dawkins suffered a neck stinger and could be limited on game day.

Why Eagles cover: Nowhere to go but up after dropping first two games. Solid pass defense can contain Detroit’s star receivers and force the Lions to beat them on the ground, something offensive co-coordinator Mike Martz doesn’t like to do.

Total (44): Over is 8-2 in Detroit’s last 10 road games.

Indianapolis at Houston (+6)
Why Colts cover: Will want to bounce back after almost blowing a 13-point lead to the Titans on Sunday. With New England stealing the spotlight from the Super Bowl champs, expect the offense to come out firing. Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Why Texans cover: Started 2-0 for the first time in franchise history. Beat the Colts by a field goal in their final meeting last season. Will want to prove that they can challenge Indy for the AFC South crown. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall. Total (48): Under is 5-1 in Colts last six games overall.

Miami at N.Y. Jets (-3)
Why Dolphins cover: Running back Ronnie Brown torched the Jets for 237 yards and a score in their two meetings last season. A meeting with the league’s 22nd-ranked pass defense could spark Trent Green who has been plagued by inconsistency so far as a Dolphin.

Why Jets cover: Chad Pennington has won his last five starts against Miami and should be back under center after missing last week with a sprained ankle. The Dolphins’ running game has been non-existent, managing only 63.5 yards per game. Miami has only covered in four of their last 23 meetings with the Jets.
Total (35): Over is 10-3-1 in the Jets’ last 14 home games.

Minnesota at Kansas City (-3)
Why Vikings cover: Minnesota’s defense has 10 sacks through two games and should be able to feast on the immobile Damon Huard while 300 pound-plus run stoppers Kevin and Pat Williams clog up the middle limiting Larry Johnson’s room to run.

Why Chiefs cover: Vikings’ quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is coming off a loss to the Lions in which he was intercepted four times and could miss Week 3 with a groin injury. If he is out, Brooks Bollinger would get the nod for Minnesota. Kansas City is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Total: (33): Under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games and 4-1 in the Vikings’ last five.

San Diego at Green Bay (+4 ½)

Why Chargers cover: Have a lot to prove after an embarrassing 38-14 loss Sunday night at New England. Shawne Merriman and the Chargers’ 10th ranked pass defense could handcuff Brett Favre forcing the Packers to rely on a ground game that is still lacking an identity since Ahman Green landed in Houston. Could be one of those games that Favre tries to force the ball into double-coverage and gets picked off more than once.

Why Packers cover: Green Bay has won five of the last six meetings with San Diego. Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games while the Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five.
Total (43): Under is 4-1 in Packers’ last five home games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-9)
Why 49ers cover: The 2-0 Niners are brimming with confidence after beating division rivals in their first two games. They'll carry that momentum into Pittsburgh. Running back Frank Gore ran for two TDs on Sunday, just three days after the death of his mother and could be a man possessed for the rest of the season. Are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Why Steelers cover: Pittsburgh has won eight of their last ten games going back to last season and appears to be as strong under Mike Tomlin as they were with Bill Cowher. Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Total (38): Under is 5-1 in 49ers’ last six road games.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3 ½)
Why Rams cover: St. Louis fell two feet short of beating the 49ers in Week 2 when Jeff Wilkins’ 56-yard field goal attempt didn’t have quite enough leg. At 0-2 the Rams are in danger of falling well behind the rest of the NFC West with another loss. Marc Bulger has looked good so far this season with 535 yards passing, two TDs and no interceptions.

Why Buccaneers cover: Bulger has been sacked seven times in two games so far and will face a Bucs defense that punished the Saints in a convincing 31-14 victory last week. Steven Jackson has yet to get going and is only averaging 3 yards per carry. Rams are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Tampa Bay.
Total (38): Under is 7-3 in St. Louis’ last 10 road games.

Cincinnati at Seattle (-3 ½)

Why Bengals cover: Will want to rebound from embarrassing 51-45 loss to the Browns in Cleveland. Shaun Alexander will wear a cast on his sprained wrist which could affect the way he carries the ball and how tentative he runs. Bengals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Why Seahawks cover: Cincinnati has a porous defense that is allowing an ugly 434 yards per game, something the Seahawks offense will be looking to exploit. Seattle is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Total (50): Under is 4-0 in Seahawks’ last four home games and 4-0 in their last four games on field turf.

Cleveland at Oakland (-3)
Why Browns cover: New starting QB Derek Anderson passed for 328 yards and an incredible five touchdowns in Week 2 and seems to have silenced the Brady Quinn rumors for now. Raiders QB Josh McCown was not as fortunate, throwing three picks last Sunday prompting head coach Lane Kiffin to call the passing game “embarrassing.” Sebastian Janikowski has only converted one of five field goal attempts this year. Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on grass. Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

Why Raiders cover: Oakland played Denver tight last week before losing by a field goal in overtime. LaMont Jordan, who seems to have put his injuries and poor play from last season behind him, has 49 touches in two games and is carrying the load for Oakland. Cleveland ranks dead last in the league in defense, giving up 448 yards per game.
Total (40): Under is 10-3 in Oakland’s last 13 games on grass and 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.

Jacksonville at Denver (-3)

Why Jaguars cover: Jacksonville’s second-ranked pass defense should make it hard for Jay Cutler and the Broncos aerial attack, and with nine sacks in two games, the Jags should be able to pressure the young quarterback all day. Denver is 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC.

Why Broncos cover: Denver leads the league in total offense and is second in total defense. Maurice Jones-Drew could be out with an undisclosed injury meaning 31-year-old Fred Taylor would get the bulk of the carries. Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
Total (36): Jacksonville has only managed 23 points total this season.

Carolina at Atlanta (+4)
Why Panthers cover: Atlanta signed Byron Leftwich this week suggesting they have soured on current starting QB Joey Harrington. Falcons have only scored 10 points total in two games this season. Former strength was running game which has been non-existent in 2007 (89 yards per game).

Why Falcons cover: After playing the first two games on the road they will be happy to get back home. Panthers are 5-12-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
Total (36 ½): Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between the two.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (-4)
Why Giants cover: Redskins offense is vulnerable with second-year quarterback Jason Campbell prone to throwing interceptions. Eli Manning looks healed following his shoulder injury from Week 1 and has raised his quarterback rating a full 20 points from last year. With 90 yards on 15 carries, Derrick Ward has filled in admirably for injured running back Brandon Jacobs.

Why Redskins cover: Are only giving up 12 ½ points per game. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the favorite going 5-0 ATS in their last five.
Total (40 ½): Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Washington.

Dallas at Chicago (-3)
Why Cowboys cover: Tony Romo has been spectacular to date and is showing no ill-effects from his gaffe that cost the Cowboys a chance to advance in last year’s playoffs. Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games while Chicago is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Why Bears cover: Cowboys’ already thin receiving corps took another hit when Patrick Crayton dislocated his pinky finger against the Dolphins. Home team has won each of the last five meetings. Chicago only allowing 73.5 yards per game on the ground.
Total (41 ½): Over is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games on grass and 8-2-2 in their last 12 road games.

Tennessee at New Orleans (-4 ½)
Why Titans cover: New Orleans is giving up 36 points per game with teams terrorizing cornerback Jason David who came over from the Colts in the offseason. Have a nice one-two punch with running backs LenDale White and Chris Brown who have combined to rush for 339 yard in the first two games. Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 overall.

Why Saints cover: Everyone remembers the Saints’ emotional home opener last year that propelled them to a surprising 10-6 record in 2006. Emotions will again be running high as New Orleans comes home after losing their first two games of the season on the road. Crowd noise could boost the Saints and rattle Vince Young.

Total (45): Over is 4-0 in the Titans’ last four games on field turf and 4-1 in Saints’ last five games overall.