Super Seven in the NFL

Super Seven in the NFL



This is my favorite week to bet on the NFL because the odds are still based on last year’s results and not the changes that teams have made in the off-season. With plenty of value and home dogs everywhere lets get this going for week one.

7) Buffalo +3

World, it is time to meet Marshall Lynch. This running back is the real deal and the Bills have done well at home against opponents that are out of the division. Everyone is excited about Cutler but he has not done anything yet and he won’t prove it in week one. Losman looked great last year and will look even better with a running game.

6) Cleveland +5

Home divisional dogs are always a good bet in the NFL and opening day just amplifies this. Don’t let history make this selection for you, the Browns have 'covered' 14 of 21 as September dogs and at an 11-6-1 rate as home short-enders. Don’t worry about the QB situation Frye knows the offense and its Jamal Lewis that will make a difference in this game. Home Underdogs of greater than a field goal - 3.5 points or more - are 14-10 ATS (58.3%) over the last 10 seasons in Week 1.



5) Bengals -3

The sexy pick this year is the Ravens to win it all and do well but not tonight. The Bengals are at home on a Monday night and a small chalk but don’t be fooled the Bengals offense will give the aging Raven defense a tough time and they will cover in week one. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in September and have won four of the last five against the Ravens. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the SU winner is 20-2 ATS. Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 19-6 ATS (76.0%) in Week 1 since ’97. Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 25 of 44 opportunities, for 56.8%. Take the Bengals at home on Monday night.

4) Houston -3

The chiefs looked horrible in the preseason and let the world watch on the HBO special. The Houston Texans revamped with a new QB and a great defensive draft, and are ready to prove the world they can play. Larry Johnson will split carries opening day and the Chiefs offense will be sluggish as they get adjusted to having him back. The chiefs are just 5-12 ATS on the road in grass games in the last three years. Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 25 of 44 opportunities, for 56.8%. Look for Houston to start off on a winning note Sunday. Kansas City is just 9-14-1 ATS on the road the past three years. The Chiefs have also failed to cash five of their last six against conference foes




3) Over 43 Philly / Green Bay

This game with a healthy Mcnabb and Favre is reason enough to go over the total, but of course I have more. On posted totals in the 40-44.5 range, the OVER has converted at a 62.5% rate (35-21). Turnovers will happen in this game with a gun slinger like Favre and two ball hawking defenses and that will lead to more points. Take the over.

2) Oakland -2

This is a big game for both teams as they strive to show that they have changed in the off-season and will make a change for the better. The lions have a great offense but the defensive edge goes to the Raiders. Detroit is 0-6 as road dogs of seven points or less. When the Raiders played as a pk to -3.0 home Favorite in the last 3 years they are 9-1 ATS. This fits into a popular system I have been using a ton in week one. Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 19-6 ATS (76.0%) in Week 1 since ’97.




1) Jets +7

The Patriots are another popular bet o go all the way this year but they will learn that it is tough to win on the road in the east and history will show that the Jets always come to play. The Jets are 9-3 ATS at home against conference foes in the last four years and always get up to play the Pats. The pats will be missing two key players on defense to start the season and the jets will take advantage of this.