Week 4 Preseason

This is the last week of the preseason and you have to pick very carefully. In fact with college football and baseball in full swing, I would suggest you pass, but if your a football junkie like I am and decide not too I want you to have a pick and some information.

With college football taking center stage, the NFL final week of the preseason is like a side stage act at the Golden Nugget, it was just fine because it was free, but glad you didn’t have to pay for it. What makes matters worse, this week is more about a few individual position battles and roster spots than how well the team plays as a whole as it prepares for season opener. Nevertheless, in every scenario the glass can be either half full or half empty and opportunity still exists for the savvy bettor looking for value and winners. Here is a peek at some of the best angles for Week Four.

Washington travels south to Jacksonville off a rain-shorted win and cover over Baltimore 13-7. The Redskins have covered all three preseason games, while averaging a paltry 2.45 yards per carry in three tilts. The trip to northern Florida doesn’t set-up well on two levels. Washington is 1-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and the Jaguars are 13-1 ATS after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

The more comfortable a head coach is in his position with the franchise, the less likely he is prone to viewing preseason games for anything more then what they really are, expensive exhibitions for fans. The purpose is to play well when you need to and Philadelphia satisfied the basic desires of Andy Reid in week two and played fair against Pittsburgh is week three. This week they are a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com against the New York Jets. The Eagles barely take flight with 3-12 ATS record after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.
Detroit faced the music against Indianapolis in being throttled 37-10. It marked the second time this year the Lions had a three turnover game. Detroit returns home to Ford Field where they are 2-10 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game and 0-7 ATS in the Week Four.

Miami has been bumped up from a ‘pick” to 1.5-point favorites in part because of the miserable history of New Orleans this week. The Saints whacked Kansas City last week 30-7 and are playing fifth preseason game. The Saints are 2-10 ATS after a two game road trip and 1-6 against the number in the final contest of the preseason.

The Bears have been sharp in August with three wins (1-1-1 ATS), as the offense is generating 26 points a game. Chicago will close out the home portion of schedule with encounter against Cleveland. The Browns have shown well this month, giving fans hope for the season in big year for coach Romeo Crennel. Cleveland might take home the money against too, since Chicago is just 2-11 ATS off a home win since 1993.

Tampa Bay returns home after a pair of road games. The Buccaneers have shown more offense thus far, especially the running game (4.7 YPC) and will try to take this momentum into the regular season facing Houston. History will not be on the side of the Bucs who are 0-7 ATS after a win by three or less points.

As Kansas City prepares for “Show Me” state battle with St. Louis, storm clouds are swirling around the Chiefs. Herm Edwards offense has scored 9.7 point per game with a total of 213 yards on average per outing. While this doesn’t count for anything, some signs point to trouble even in the preseason and this has the look of such a problem. The Chiefs are now 2-11 ATS in last 13 preseason games.

Denver was upset at home by Cleveland 17-16 as 6.5-point favorites, not playing poorly, just not efficiently. This is really bad news for Arizona who has yet to win a preseason game for first year coach Ken Whisenhunt. The Broncos are 12-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 ATS in the final week of exhibition football.

A couple of other notes have Minnesota 6-1 ATS to close the preseason and Oakland 6-2 ATS the last two years. In an earlier article we told you to look for or against certain teams off double digit wins or losses. Thus far heeding that advice would give you a 9-4-1 69.2 percent ATS record. This week take a look at Carolina and Philly as Play On teams, and possibly Play Against the Saints, New England, Tennessee, Indy, and Houston.

NFL Wagering Pick for Week #4: Green Bay +7

College Pick for tonight here