Capping the third week in NFL Preseason

A look into the third week of Preseason

My wife’s not happy with me. Ever since I purchased my copy of Madden NFL 08, I’ve spent all my spare time in the basement with my Xbox leaving her feeling significantly neglected.

Sorry dear, but long before I met you there was Tecmo Bowl.

After I carefully crack the cover to my newest football video game, I’ll pick my team, and with the simple tap of the "A" button, skip the preseason and move onto Week 1 of the regular campaign. Most NFL bettors wish they could do the same thing with the actual football calendar.

The good news is Week 3 of the preseason, set to start Thursday, is the closest thing to the real deal. It's a dress rehearsal for the team's starters. Most coaches play their top players for the first three quarters before putting the top backups in the fourth quarter. This is usually the last action the first-stringers see before the regular season.

Even with the familiar faces taking up most of the camera time, oddsmakers are cautious.

“They call it preseason, we call it exhibition,” says Robert Walker, a sportsbook manager at the MGM Grand.



Walker isn’t alone in his assessment of this week's action.

“I know (the starters) aren’t going to play the whole game,” line consultant Keith Glantz says. “It’s kind of still up in the air.”

Despite this being the last chance for starters to see game action, some clubs still don’t let their stars touch the field. The San Diego Chargers haven’t played LaDainian Tomlinson in any of their last six warm-up matches and the St. Louis Rams haven’t given elite running back Steven Jackson a carry in two preseason contests this year.

Tomlinson and Jackson are rare exceptions. Most coaches still believe their players – even the best ones – need some August in-game situations to prepare for the regular season.

Halftime lines are an attractive prospect for bettors who know starters will play the entire first half.

“We normally get a little bit wiser money,” says Randy Stafford, an oddsmaker with BetCris.com. “We set the totals a little bit higher in the first half because the first-string offense is in there for so long.”

Covers Expert Lee Kostroski agrees with the parallel between higher totals and longer playing time for starters. He says offenses generally get sharper week-to-week with the help of more snaps.

“It’s hard to go out there knowing you’ve got three or four series, because you feel like every play you’ve got to make something happen,” Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brody Croyle told reporters after learning he’d play the majority of Thursday’s game. “I’d love playing into the third quarter. You can get yourself into pretty good rhythm.”

Walker still believes Week 3 can produce erratic results. He says the MGM covers itself by instituting “real low limits” and making parlays unavailable with preseason games.

“The reality is some coaches just don’t care. Week 17 is the same thing,” Walker says of the final week of the regular season. “We run into problems when coaches aren’t properly motivated to win.”

This week’s lines better reflect what bettors might expect in the regular season, but not in all cases. Glantz points out that the Indianapolis Colts (-4 ½) and Chicago Bears (-6) would each be much larger favorites under normal circumstances.

There are still some who believe there are advantages to making a wager in this week.

“The first-half line is easy to handicap in Week 3 as you normally have the starting units for both squads on the field,” Covers Expert Steve Merril says. “The most important thing to do when handicapping Week 3 is (to look) at starting units, and also (pay) close attention to how the second-string units have played in the first two preseason games as these are normally the players that finish the fourth quarter.”

I don’t worry too much about backups in Madden. If one of my stars gets injured and can't play the fourth quarter, I just hit the reset button. The trouble is that that's a luxury we don’t enjoy in the real world. There's no such button when we place a bet in the third week of the preseason.