NFL Surprises
NFL Surprises
WagerWeb NFL Football Odds
Regular season win totals in the NFL have become a hot betting proposition here in Las Vegas. Gamblers are always chomping at the bit to bet pro football during the summer. These regular season win props allow people to do just that. And, frankly, sharp bettors have made A LOT of money exploiting soft lines.
I found early on that much of my preparation for a coming NFL season puts me in ideal position to attack these poor numbers. In the past, I was always a fast starter in football because of my offseason analysis. Now, I was able to further increase my profits because I could anticipate what the mainstream media would call surprise performances from various teams.
It's a definite advantage to be able to spot many of the lesser teams who are ready to "arrive" this year, and also to spot many of the top teams from the prior season who are ready to fall back to earth.
Even if you're not interested in playing regular season win props, you should still be trying to anticipate these surprises! Today I'm going to explain some of the strategies I've developed for uncovering the big movers from year to year.
First, you have to realize that football is a sport of parity. There's just not that big a difference from top to bottom, and the difference between top and middle barely exists at all. With that in mind, you have to look for teams to regress to the mean. Teams with a winning record are likely to drop back toward .500. Teams with bad records are likely to lift themselves up in the direction of .500.
Bottom line: don't expect too many winning teams to get better, and don't expect too many losing teams to get worse!
Also, any team that changes their head coach in the offseason will see these chances magnified. Bad teams are extremely likely to get better because they've fired a guy who couldn't win. Good teams are very likely to fall back to earth because the prior guy probably retired, and a change messes up what had been working.
After looking at the big picture issues involving the teams and coaching changes, you have to move to the quarterback position. Here are the guidelines I use:
Established veterans will maintain their level of performance. The only time to be wary of veterans is when they've made it past 35 years of age. Then you have to pencil in a slight decrease in production from year to year.
Young quarterbacks generally improve slightly from year to year. I've found in the past that most guys who are destined to be stars will make that clear by the end of their second season. Just be aware that these guys get better during the season, not between seasons. Don't make the mistake of assuming that some young QB is about to make a huge leap forward in the coming campaign. Detroit and Houston kept thinking that way about Joey Harrington and David Carr. So did bettors who believed the offseason hype. I'll pencil in slight improvement for very young guys. But once a guy has played at least three seasons, I consider him a veteran who's about to plateau for several years.
Rookie quarterbacks will probably be in the mid 70s or lower in terms of passer rating. Now, in this league, it's relatively rare to know before the season starts that a rookie will be getting all the snaps. You have to assume some early season troubles to even anticipate something like that. Teams like this I'm probably skeptical of anyway heading into a season, so the change to the rookie doesn't have much of an impact.
Because quarterback play is relatively stable these days, the only way teams have dramatic differences involves trades or free agency. This is where you have to look for potential surprises.
Who's likely to make a big jump forward? Any team that replaced a bad quarterback with a decent veteran via an offseason transaction, or any team that was starting a young quarterback who hasn't reached three full seasons in the league yet.
Who's likely to fall backward? Any team replacing an established veteran with a questionable newcomer at quarterback. Any team with an old quarterback who may find that this is the year he hits a wall.
The final area I want to discuss today is "luck" from the prior season. Teams who had better won-lost records than they deserved in 2006 are likely to fall back to earth in 2007. Teams who had worse won-lost records than they deserved are likely to get better.
How can you tell who the lucky or unlucky teams were? I look at records in games decided by six points or less (assuming teams with great records caught some breaks, and teams with bad records deserved better). And, I look at the stat rankings on offense and defense, and make a determination about whether those stats are reflective of the won-loss record. Here's a quick example from 2006. The Tennessee Titans ranked 27th on offense, and 32nd on defense, yet finished 8-8. They're unlikely to be that lucky again this season.
Once you've evaluated teams in this light, many of the so-called surprises jump off the page. You find teams who were unlucky last year and have made changes that are likely to lead to a surge. Teams like this may pick up as many as four-to-five extra wins this year. You find teams who were lucky last year, and have stood pat with personnel who really aren't that good. They may drop from playoff contender to 5-11 in a finger snap.
I'm not going to run through my personal selections for surprise teams. I need to keep that information close to the vest for my early season selection process. I do think that those of you who do the work in preseason preparation will be well-positioned to get off to a very hot start come September.
WagerWeb NFL Football Odds
Regular season win totals in the NFL have become a hot betting proposition here in Las Vegas. Gamblers are always chomping at the bit to bet pro football during the summer. These regular season win props allow people to do just that. And, frankly, sharp bettors have made A LOT of money exploiting soft lines.
I found early on that much of my preparation for a coming NFL season puts me in ideal position to attack these poor numbers. In the past, I was always a fast starter in football because of my offseason analysis. Now, I was able to further increase my profits because I could anticipate what the mainstream media would call surprise performances from various teams.
It's a definite advantage to be able to spot many of the lesser teams who are ready to "arrive" this year, and also to spot many of the top teams from the prior season who are ready to fall back to earth.
Even if you're not interested in playing regular season win props, you should still be trying to anticipate these surprises! Today I'm going to explain some of the strategies I've developed for uncovering the big movers from year to year.
First, you have to realize that football is a sport of parity. There's just not that big a difference from top to bottom, and the difference between top and middle barely exists at all. With that in mind, you have to look for teams to regress to the mean. Teams with a winning record are likely to drop back toward .500. Teams with bad records are likely to lift themselves up in the direction of .500.
Bottom line: don't expect too many winning teams to get better, and don't expect too many losing teams to get worse!
Also, any team that changes their head coach in the offseason will see these chances magnified. Bad teams are extremely likely to get better because they've fired a guy who couldn't win. Good teams are very likely to fall back to earth because the prior guy probably retired, and a change messes up what had been working.
After looking at the big picture issues involving the teams and coaching changes, you have to move to the quarterback position. Here are the guidelines I use:
Established veterans will maintain their level of performance. The only time to be wary of veterans is when they've made it past 35 years of age. Then you have to pencil in a slight decrease in production from year to year.
Young quarterbacks generally improve slightly from year to year. I've found in the past that most guys who are destined to be stars will make that clear by the end of their second season. Just be aware that these guys get better during the season, not between seasons. Don't make the mistake of assuming that some young QB is about to make a huge leap forward in the coming campaign. Detroit and Houston kept thinking that way about Joey Harrington and David Carr. So did bettors who believed the offseason hype. I'll pencil in slight improvement for very young guys. But once a guy has played at least three seasons, I consider him a veteran who's about to plateau for several years.
Rookie quarterbacks will probably be in the mid 70s or lower in terms of passer rating. Now, in this league, it's relatively rare to know before the season starts that a rookie will be getting all the snaps. You have to assume some early season troubles to even anticipate something like that. Teams like this I'm probably skeptical of anyway heading into a season, so the change to the rookie doesn't have much of an impact.
Because quarterback play is relatively stable these days, the only way teams have dramatic differences involves trades or free agency. This is where you have to look for potential surprises.
Who's likely to make a big jump forward? Any team that replaced a bad quarterback with a decent veteran via an offseason transaction, or any team that was starting a young quarterback who hasn't reached three full seasons in the league yet.
Who's likely to fall backward? Any team replacing an established veteran with a questionable newcomer at quarterback. Any team with an old quarterback who may find that this is the year he hits a wall.
The final area I want to discuss today is "luck" from the prior season. Teams who had better won-lost records than they deserved in 2006 are likely to fall back to earth in 2007. Teams who had worse won-lost records than they deserved are likely to get better.
How can you tell who the lucky or unlucky teams were? I look at records in games decided by six points or less (assuming teams with great records caught some breaks, and teams with bad records deserved better). And, I look at the stat rankings on offense and defense, and make a determination about whether those stats are reflective of the won-loss record. Here's a quick example from 2006. The Tennessee Titans ranked 27th on offense, and 32nd on defense, yet finished 8-8. They're unlikely to be that lucky again this season.
Once you've evaluated teams in this light, many of the so-called surprises jump off the page. You find teams who were unlucky last year and have made changes that are likely to lead to a surge. Teams like this may pick up as many as four-to-five extra wins this year. You find teams who were lucky last year, and have stood pat with personnel who really aren't that good. They may drop from playoff contender to 5-11 in a finger snap.
I'm not going to run through my personal selections for surprise teams. I need to keep that information close to the vest for my early season selection process. I do think that those of you who do the work in preseason preparation will be well-positioned to get off to a very hot start come September.
posted by Poster @ 8:51 AM
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