Sunday, September 2, 2007

NFL Week One History


The anticipation of opening weekend of the NFL season is unlike any other sport, and more than ever, bettors have to be weary of falling prey to traps set up by exuberant oddsmakers hoping to get off to a fast start themselves.

Understanding that the goal of any bookmaker is to either have his bettors lose or at least collect his share of the juice, it is important to not head into the season relying on sets of false pretenses.

First off, this is a new season. Other than a few select line cases that I will show below, what happened in 2006 doesn’t mean anything. In fact, it can often mean quite the opposite of what the media and general public are thinking.

Secondly, what happened in the preseason can have nothing or everything to do with the type of confidence level a team is going into their first regular season contest with. There is no set formula for this. Teams like the Colts of 2006 didn’t show the slightest interest in the preseason, yet went on to win a Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Oakland flourished in the exhibition campaign, only to flounder when the games counted. In other words, throw out virtually everything you’ve seen so far.

With those two thoughts in mind, one would have to think it’s best to just skip the first week of NFL wagering and look forward to week two, right? Hah! Try doing that! That’s more painful than childbirth!

You know you’re going to get in on the action, so here are a few pointers for betting Week 1 of the NFL season. These thoughts are based strictly on past line analysis pulled from the StatFox database for the opening weekend games since 1997, a 10-year sample. Along with each successful or problematic trend, I will list the plays that qualify for 2007’s NFL Kickoff weekend.

Before beginning though, it is important to note some of the basics regarding home and road, favorite and dog, as well as totals performance.

In all, over the last 10 years, road teams hold a 78-71 ATS edge for 52.3%. favorites are 69-79 (46.6%), and under plays have converted at a 81-73 mark in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Please note: These trends are sorted by net units above zero, not the likelihood of the angle occurring again in 2007.




1. (+16.7 Units) On extreme Week 1 Totals (35 or less, 45 or higher), UNDER’s have hit at a 31-13 rate for 70.4%
’07
Plays: New Orleans-Indianapolis Under 50.5, Arizona-San Francisco Under 45

2. (+12.4 Units) Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 19-6 ATS (76.0%) in Week 1 since ‘97
’07
Plays: Houston –2.5, Minnesota –3, Oakland –1.5, Cincinnati –3

3. (+11.9 Units) On posted totals in the 40-44.5 range, the OVER has converted at a 62.5% rate (35-21)
’07
Plays: Carolina-St Louis Over 41.5, Philadelphia-Green Bay Over 43.5, New England-NY Jets Over 41, Tampa Bay-Seattle Over 41.5, Chicago-San Diego Over 42.5, NY Giants-Dallas Over 44, Baltimore-Cincinnati over 40.5

4. (+10.8 Units) Road Underdogs of greater than a field goal but less than a touchdown (-3.5 to –6.5) have won at a 24-12 mark for 66.7% over the last 10 seasons.
’07
Plays: New Orleans +6, Tennessee +6.5, Tampa Bay +6, Chicago +5.5, NY Giants +5

5. (+5.0 Units) Double-digit Underdogs in the first week of the regular season are 5-0 ATS (100%) since ’97.
’07
Plays: NONE

6. (+4.9 Units) Road Underdogs facing an opponent who finished .500 or worse a year ago are 28-21 (57.1%) on opening weekend since ’97.
’07
Plays: Kansas City +2.5, Tennessee +6.5, Atlanta +3, Miami +3, Detroit +1.5, Arizona +3

7. (+4.3 Units) Non-Divisional Conference Home Underdogs are on a nice run of 12-7 ATS for 63.2% success.
’07
Plays: Buffalo +3.5, Green Bay +3

8. (+4.1 Units) Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 25 of 44 opportunities, for 56.8%.
’07
Plays: Indianapolis –6, Houston –2.5, Jacksonville –6.5, San Diego –5.5, Dallas –5, Cincinnati –3

9. (+3.8 Units) Divisional Home Favorites of –1 to –3 points in Week 1 are 6-2 ATS (75.0%) in their last eight opportunities.
’07
Plays: Cincinnati –3, San Francisco -3

10. (+3.3 Units) Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07
Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5

11. (+3.3 Units) Road Favorites in Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 11-7 ATS (61.1%) run.
’07
Plays: Philadelphia -3, New England –6.5

12. (+3.3 Units) Divisional Road Favorites in Week 1 own an 11-7 ATS (61.1%) record since ’97.
’07
Plays: Pittsburgh –4.5, New England –6.5

13. (+3.0 Units) Overall, Home Underdogs of greater than a field goal - 3.5 points or more - are 14-10 ATS (58.3%) over the last 10 seasons in Week 1.
’07
Plays: Cleveland +4.5, NY Jets +6.5

14. (+3.0 Units) When a Week 1 Home Underdog had a better SU record the prior year, that team is 3-0-1 ATS (100%)
’07
Plays: NONE

15. (+2.9 Units) Home Underdogs facing an opponent that had a losing record in the prior season are on a 4-1-1 ATS run (80%)
’07
Plays: NONE


Using a simple mathematical formula of adding the combined units for each of our 15 trends, this would be the top 15 plays for NFL Week 1:
1. Cincinnati –3 (20.3 Units)
2. New Orleans-Indianapolis Under 50.5 (+16.7 Units)
Arizona-San Francisco Under 45 (+16.7 Units)
4. Carolina-St Louis Over 41.5 (+11.9 Units)
Philadelphia-Green Bay Over 43.5 (+11.9 Units)
New England-NY Jets Over 41 (+11.9 Units)
Tampa Bay-Seattle Over 41.5 (+11.9 Units)
Chicago-San Diego Over 42.5 (+11.9 Units)
NY Giants-Dallas Over 44 (+11.9 Units)
Baltimore-Cincinnati over 40.5 (+11.9 Units)
11. Houston –2.5 (+11.6 Units)
Tennessee +6.5
13. Tampa Bay +6.5 (+10.8 Units)
14. Minnesota –3 (+7.5 Units)
Oakland –1.5 (+7.5 Units)

Surely the logic used in determining the top 15 plays will be argued for merit by some handicappers, but in any case, I hope you enjoyed the information. Good luck with your plays and enjoy NFL Kickoff ’07!

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