Week 4 Trends and Angles

The Green Bay Packers (3-0, both SU and ATS) are the toast of the NFL once again after starting the season with three straight wins for the first time since 2001. QB Brett Favre will be looking to surpass Dan Marino as the career leader in touchdown passes Sunday when the Packers head to Minnesota (1-2, 1-1-1) for a NFC North division showdown.




The Vikings are underdogs at home against Green Bay for the first time since the 2002 season and they are desperate for a win to avoid failing three games off the pace in the division chase.
Green Bay will likely be the people's choice, but Minnesota has several factors in its favor. The Vikings have cashed nine of their last dozen against the Packers and the underdog in this storied rivalry is 16-1 in the last 17 encounters.

Minnesota has 'covered' 20 of 28 as home pups and 14 of 17 as short-enders at the Metrodome with revenge. Green Bay took both games versus the Vikings last season, prevailing as 5 1/2-point road dogs, 23-17, and as 3 1/2-point home favorites, 9-7.

Minnesota has also cashed nine off 11 when playing its second game at home, including its last four as underdogs. In addition, the Vikings are 6-0 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight-up losses versus an opponent that's over .500.

Green Bay has faltered at a 14-4-2 clip as road favorites when playing on turf.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 4 NFL schedule appear below.

RAIDERS (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at DOLPHINS (0-3 SU, 0-1-2 ATS)
Oakland snapped an 11-game losing skid by nipping Cleveland at home, 26-24. The Raiders now take aim at ending a 12-game road futility streak. Miami has faltered in eight of its last nine, both straight up and against the spread, as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or more. The Dolphins have also failed to cash 16 of 22 at home versus non-division foes. Oakland is 12-22 ATS on the road and 14-20 as short-enders on the highway. However, the Raiders have 'covered' 10 of 12 on the road before a bye and nine in a row off a SU win. Miami has won and 'covered' six straight against Oakland dating back to 1997.




TEXANS (2-1, 2-0-1) at FALCONS (0-3, 1-2)
Houston finds itself in the rare role of favorites. The Texans have come up short as the chalk in seven of 11 chances since the inception of the franchise in 2002. Houston is 3-7 ATS on the road against NFC foes. Atlanta has cashed eight off 11 as dogs coming off a SU loss. However, the Falcons are 3-15 ATS at home when facing teams with a winning record and they are 7-11-1 as dogs versus AFC competition. The Texans have tipped 'under' in 18 of 28 on the road. Atlanta has zipped 'over' in 13 of 18 as non-conference dogs.

RAVENS (2-1, 0-3) at BROWNS (1-2, 2-1)
Baltimore hasn't dropped four in a row ATS since Brian Billick took over in 1999. However, the dog in this AFC North rivalry has come away with the cash in eight of the last 11 encounters and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes. Cleveland has 'covered' three straight overall against the Ravens and three straight at home. The Browns are 3-10 as division dogs of less than seven points. They have cashed at a 16-6-1 clip after scoring 23 points or more. Baltimore has lost and failed in 14 of its last 20 road outings. Six of the past nine series scuffles have been on the low side. The Ravens have knuckled 'under' at a 19-7-1 rate in September. Cleveland has dipped 'under' at a 19-10-1 pace as home dogs of three points or more.

BEARS (1-2, 0-3) at LIONS (2-1, 1-1-1)
Chicago has now dropped six straight spread decisions dating back to 2006. The last time the defending NFC champs failed to get the green in four straight games in the same season was in 2002. Detroit will be looking to extend a streak that has seen the dog cash at a 10-4-1 pace in this series. The SU winner is also 27-5-2 ATS. The Bears are 4-9-2 as division road favorites and 11-32-2 ATS coming off a SU loss as the chalk. The Lions are 29-16 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more. Chicago has slipped below the 'total' in eight of 10 after bowing SU as a favorite. Detroit has ducked 'under' at an 11-4-1 clip in September.

RAMS (0-3, 0-3) at COWBOYS (3-0, 3-0)
Dallas should attract a lot of attention this week considering it has cashed three in a row and St. Louis has failed in three straight ATS. However, the Cowboys are 8-16 as double-digit favorites and 4-9 ATS off a SU win as underdogs. They have cashed seven of eight at home off back-to-back road games. The Rams are 9-26-2 ATS against non-division foes and 10-18 ATS on the highway when facing teams with a winning record. St. Louis has eclipsed the 'total' in 14 of 20 as double-digit dogs and in 13 of 20 on the road versus a non-division opponent.

JETS (1-2, 1-1-1) at BILLS (0-3, 1-2)
The New York Jets have stumbled in eight of their last nine as road favorites against Buffalo. However, the Jets have 'covered' at a 9-4-1 pace as away chalk overall. The Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss and 13-1 after playing New England. Buffalo has cashed five of its last seven against New York. The Jets a 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500.




BUCS (2-1, 2-1) at PANTHERS (2-1, 2-1)
Tampa Bay hasn't handled prosperity very well. The Bucs are 2-11 ATS coming off back-to-back SU wins. Carolina has dominated this division rivalry, getting the green in eight of the last 11 meetings. However, the series dog has cashed in eight of 10 encounters. The Panthers are 3-9 ATS after a SU division road win and 1-6 as home favorites after allowing more than 17 points in September. They have also come up short in 13 of 16 as favorites of between four and seven points. Carolina has strayed below the number in three straight games as division home favorites. The Bucs have gone 'under' in 33 of 48 after allowing 10 points or less.

SEAHAWKS (1-2, 1-1-1) at 49ERS (2-1, 1-1-1)
Seattle is 7-17 as road favorites and 3-12 on the highway when laying 3 1/2 points or less. San Francisco is 8-15 as dogs after failing to cash as dogs and 6-10 ATS at home following a double-digit loss. Seattle had won six straight versus the 49ers (4-2 ATS) until losing and failing in both encounters last year. The 'under' is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.

STEELERS (3-0, 3-0) at CARDINALS (1-2, 2-0-1)
Pittsburgh has cashed four straight and nine of its last 11 dating back to 2006. The Steelers are 16-8-1 ATS off a double-digit win. However, they are 1-7 as road favorites off a double-digit SU win and 6-16-1 as non-division away favorites. Pittsburgh has 'covered' at a 13-2-1 clip as non-conference chalk overall. Arizona is 7-18 ATS at home in September and it has floundered in 10 of 12 as non-conference dogs of more than three points.

CHIEFS (1-2, 2-1) at CHARGERS (1-2, 1-2)
The home team has held the aces in the AFC West rivalry, getting the cheese at a 7-1-1 rate. The SU winner is 21-3-2 ATS. San Diego is 13-3 as home favorites in September. The Chargers have 'covered' 12 of 15 off a non-division game versus an opponent with revenge. Kansas City is 2-7 as division road dogs. The Chiefs have eclipsed the 'total' at a 21-13-1 clip as short-enders. However, San Diego has slipped 'under' in 14 of 20 as division home chalk.




EAGLES (1-2, 1-2) at GIANTS (1-2, 1-2)
Philadelphia has cashed six of its last eight against the New York Giants. The Eagles have prospered on the road against division foes, getting the money in 18 of 27. The Giants have cashed 29 of 44 after winning SU as underdogs. Nine of the last dozen series encounters have been on the low side. Philadelphia has ducked 'under' in seven of nine as division road favorites and New York has followed suit at a 10-2-1 rate as division home dogs. The Eagles have slipped 'under' in 11 of 14 after scoring 28 points or more.

PATRIOTS (3-0, 3-0) at BENGALS (1-2, 1-1-1)
Cincinnati would appear to have faint hope when it hosts New England, the hottest team on Planet NFL. However, the Bengals have 'covered' six of eight as dogs of six points or more and the Patriots are a dismal 4-17 ATS when playing their second road game of the season. New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins and 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less. The Pats are also 9-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. Cincinnati is 15-32 ATS at home in September. The Bengals have failed to 'cover' seven of eight versus non-division opponents when playing on Monday.

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