NFL Systems 2-0

In my continuing series analyzing angles for each of the various weeks in the NFL season, I decided to look at the fortunes of teams that are 2-0 headed into Week 3 of the schedule. On average, there are just less than seven teams per season that win their opening two contests. There are 10 this year, and 15-year history shows that 27% of these teams will fall in Week 3. Will your team be one of them? Are they worth wagering on? If so, when are the best spots to either fade or follow these clubs? These are just some of the points I plan to reveal in my Week 3 unbeaten teams study.

Some of the most important concepts to understand about the unbeaten teams heading into their Week 3 games are: 1) Are they at home or on the road, 2) Are they playing an opponent that is also playing well or struggling, 3) Is the unbeaten team thrashing opponents or squeaking out games, and 4) Has the undefeated club won with offense, defense, or both so far?
I’ll reveal some very successful historical patterns that have formed for all four of those important concepts later, but for now, here are some of the basic records on 2-0 teams, based on where they are playing and the record of the opponent they are facing.

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams are 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS (64%)· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams are 12-10 SU & 14-8 ATS (64%)· 2-0 HOME teams facing 0-2 ROAD teams are 9-0 SU & 4-4-1 ATS (50%), with an average line of –11.4.· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams are 17-5 SU but just 9-13 ATS (41%).· In games matching unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams, the HOME teams hold a 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS (61%)

If you add up all the records of the trends noted just above, you’ll find that road teams cover the spread in 56% of games involving an undefeated team. This can be explained by the logic that the oddsmakers are counting on home-field advantage to make the difference in these higher profile games, thus giving the hosts a little extra respect on the pointspread. Think of it like this…if an unbeaten team is coming back home to play a game, public perception would typically tell you that the home team should win again. On the flip side, when said undefeated team hits the road at 2-0, the majority of the fan population would tend to believe that the chances of that team losing its game are good, particularly if it is the teams’ first road game.

With 56% of these games being won ATS by road teams, and three of our basic five angles producing spread success rates of better than 60%, it afforded me the opportunity to apply numerous tighteners to the trends, thus generating even higher winning percentages. The best results from that tightening process are listed below. Use these trends to apply to your own handicapping routine on Sunday and Monday night.

· 2-0 HOME teams taking on 0-2 ROAD teams, when favored by 10 points or less, are 4-0 SU & ATS (100%).Analysis: Oddsmakers clearly aren’t giving enough consideration to the momentum generated by the unbeaten and winless teams in the first two weeks. Games that could be accompanied by double-digit spreads are not and home teams have capitalized at a 4-0 clip.Plays for ’07: WASHINGTON

· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams, when favored by 6 points or less, are just 3-8 ATS (27%).Analysis: There seems to be a good reason that these 2-0 hosts are only favored by small margins over their 1-1 opponents. Most likely, these home teams either aren’t as good as their 2-0 start, or their road opponent might have lost one of its two games either in heartbreaking fashion or to another elite club. In any case, it is the road teams that hold the edge in this scenario.Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY, DENVER

· In battles between unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 5-1 SU & ATS (100%) when favored by 5-points or more.Analysis: Exactly the opposite of the situation described just above. In this case, it is the 2-0 road team that may be undeserving of its undefeated record. Oddsmakers have perceptively picked up on it, installing them as sizeable underdogs for the showdown. These games clearly turn out to be better on paper than on the field, with the hosts winning five of six games by an average score of 24.8-9.5. With such a low total score for the road teams in these games, keep an eye on the UNDERs as well.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH

· The HOME team holds a 2-0 SU & ATS (100%) edge in Week 3 showdowns between undefeated inter-conference opponents.Analysis: Not only do the hosts hold an edge in games with undefeated teams and large pointspreads, they also receive a boost from being at hoe again opponents from the opposite conference. Unfamiliarity would figure to be the reason behind this, as the road teams are putting their undefeated marks on the line against teams they know little about.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH ·

In divisional showdowns between unbeaten teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 6-4 & ATS (60%).Analysis: I’m a firm believer that home field advantage means the most in division games, since it is that extra edge that teams rely on when game plans are well known. These teams are well familiar with one another, so scheming doesn’t have as much of an impact as simple execution and motivation. Home field advantage is one of the more prominent motivating factors.Plays for ’07: HOUSTON

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS (83%).Analysis: Albeit due to the desperation level of the home team, or the lack of respect generated by the visitors in their opening two wins, oddsmakers just don’t see enough sometimes to make these unbeaten road teams favorites in the Week 3 game. Clearly that has been a mistake. With an 83% ATS success rate in the last 15 seasons, digging out these teams is well worth the effort if any qualify.Plays for ’07: DETROIT

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS (77%).Analysis: The success rate for unbeaten road teams playing at 1-1 home opponents is even better than that against winless foes. With an 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS record, it has been nearly automatic that these road teams win outright. Keep a close eye on the NFL Week 3 schedule in 2007, since prior to the second week action, there were nine teams that won on opening weekend that will be on the road for these Sunday and Monday games.Plays for ’07: DALLAS

· 2-0 HOME teams are 13-8 ATS (62%) when the wagering action coming in moves the line more in their favor.Analysis: If a home team’s line moves from –6 to –7 in a given week, it is assumed that the public, or sharps in some cases, is backing them enough for oddsmakers to move the line in hopes of drawing action the other way. When the so-called betting public backs these home undefeated teams in Week 3, they beat the number at a 13-8 rate.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams are just 9-11 ATS (45%) when the wagering action favors the road teams.Analysis: The betting public seems to have a good feel for these undefeated home team games in Week 3, beating the books on both sides of the ledger. The bottom line is this…if undefeated home teams are playing in Week 3, history says to follow the money.Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY


· In games concerning 2-0 ROAD teams, when the betting public backs the home team, the road clubs are 8-9 ATS. When the line move favors the road team, the visitors are 9-11 ATS.Analysis: While not overly successful records, these trends would suggest that any type of line move involving games with 2-0 road teams would indicate to play on the hosts. If I could come up with any type of reasonable explanation for it I would. Next…Plays for ’07: WATCH LINE MOVES

· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing more than 15 PPG in their first two contests are 13-5 ATS (72%) in their Week 3 games.Analysis: This trend is somewhat contrarian in nature, but come to think of it, most good systems are too. Undefeated road teams allowing more than 15 PPG are at the bottom end of the defensive scale. Oddsmakers don’t hold them in the same regard as they do those teams that won with early defensive domination. Still, they are unbeaten and tend to stay so after this game.Plays for ’07: DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO

· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing less than 10 PPG in their first two contests are just 7-7 ATS (50%) in their Week 3 games.Analysis: While this is not a trend that will give you any type of advantage over “the man”, I listed it simply so that you could see the difference in the success rates of the strong defensive teams and the rest. The trend above was 13-5 ATS, this one is just 7-7 ATS. In which one do think oddsmakers are giving more credit to the unbeaten road team?Plays for ’07: NONE


· 2-0 ROAD teams scoring more than 25 PPG in their first two contests are 10-4 ATS (71%) as underdogs in Week 3.Analysis: In my own handicapping routine, I love looking for underdogs that can score points. They are the most-lively type of underdogs, the kind that can keep coming at the favorites, regardless of how far they are behind. If you’re lucky enough to pick up on an undefeated road dog this weekend, grab it. There is on average about one opportunity per season.Plays for ’07: DALLAS, INDIANAPOLIS, DETROIT


· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by less than 3 PPG are just 6-6 SU & 4-7 ATS (36%) in Week 3.Analysis: Teams winning their games by less than a field goal margin per contest are living on the edge. In Week 3, they fall off that edge, at least in terms of the pointspread, converting just 36% of the time. Half of the 12 home teams coming into this scenario lost their games outright as well.Plays for ’07: AGAINST DENVER

· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 8-4 SU but just 4-8 ATS (33%) in Week 3.Analysis: This is the classic example of what makes the NFL tough to beat on a consistent basis. A trap of all traps, even the most dominant teams of the season’s first two weeks playing at home don’t turn out to be solid bets in Week 3. What makes matters worse is that more often than not, these teams win the games on the scoreboard but demonstrate little regard for their backers’ betting tickets.Plays for ’07: AGAINST PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 0-2 ATS when playing as double-digit favorites, and 0-4 ATS as favorites of less than 4 points.Analysis: These trends are also a couple traps that bettors tend to fall for. In my opinion, the double-digit favorite in the early going can be a poison pill in the NFL. In a league filled with parity, betting such lines early in the season just doesn’t make a lot of sense. On the other side of the coin, 2-0 home teams when playing as small favorites don’t make for good bets either. Remember, there is a reason they aren’t favored by a larger number.Plays for ’07: AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams scoring more than 33 PPG are 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in Week 3, regardless of the opponent.Analysis: In saving the best for last, I’ve focused in on the truly elite teams in the early going. These are the teams putting up the big numbers in the first two weeks and looking truly “Super”, as in Super Bowl bound. A Week 3 game at home for these prolific offensive teams has been nearly automatic, so be sure to check the NFL team stats after the Week 2 games. Perhaps New England, hosting Buffalo, might qualify?Plays for ’07: NEW ENGLAND

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