Week 17 picks

1. Sunday December 28th Tampa Bay -13
The Raiders looked great last week in the final game at home but don’t look for a repeat performance this week. Tampa needs the win and have killed their own position down the stretch. It is also the last game for DC Monty Kiffin. Tampa Bay has lost three straight and now not only needs to beat Oakland, but also hope for Philadelphia to beat Dallas to earn a post-season berth. The Bucs are 20-12-1 ATS at home in December and 27-10 ATS after losing SU as favorites. The Raiders have come up short in 20 of their last 25 on the road during the final month of the season and dropped 17 of their last 21 finales ATS. Oakland is 0-7 ATS vs. NFC and loses big!

2. Sunday December 28th Philly -2
This is a big game for both squads as it is a must win to even have a shot at the playoffs. The Cowboys had a big chance but lost at home when the defense collapsed in the waning minutes of the game. Philadelphia is 25-8 ATS avenging a close loss by seven points or less. The Eagles are also 8-1 ATS off a division setback. Dallas has flopped in 19 of its last 26 season finales ATS. There is nothing McNabb would like more than to send T.O. home for the playoffs. A big game from McNabb and Westbrook will put Dallas to rest for the season.

3. Sunday December 28th Vikings -6.5
The Giants have nothing left to play for while the Vikings have everything in the world to play for. Minnesota wins the NFC North with a victory or a Chicago loss. The Vikings play very well at home and the Giants will look to avoid injuries. The defending champs are 12-19 as road favorites of three or more and 10-16 ATS on the road after allowing 28 points or more. The Giants should just go through the motions and this will be close if not an outright win for the Vikings.

4. Sunday December 28th Houston -2.5
The Bears won an overtime game on Monday night to stay alive in the playoffs but now have to go to Houston. The Texans were playing great ball until they ran into a buzz saw in the pathetic Oakland Raiders. The last game at home and off an embarrassment the Texans will throttle the Bears on a short week. Chicago has struggled on the road down the stretch, posing an 8-29-1 spread mark on the road in December and failing at a 2-10-2 clip in its last 14 tries. The Bears are 6-10-1 ATS on the highway against AFC opponents. Take the Texans to win big!

5. Sunday December 28th Jets -3
The Jets need this win and they need the Patriots to lose if they are going to make into the playoffs. New York has won 12 of 16 against Miami, including a 24-14 win as 2 1/2-point road favorites this year. The Jets have 'covered' at a torrid 12-3-2 clip versus the Dolphins at the Meadowlands. Miami has dropped 14 of its last 20 road finales ATS and is 10-25 ATS versus division foes the last four week of the season. Miami is a pathetic 49-72 ATS vs. the division. The Jets win after an embarrassment last week in Seattle.

6 Sunday December 28th Buffalo +6.5
Everyone is talking about how the Patriots need the Jets to win or Baltimore to lose to make the playoffs, but hold the phone. The Patriots still need to win to make sure that they even have a shot at the playoffs and as you can tell by the performance in Buffalo the bill are not done playing by a long shot. They have cashed seven of nine as home dogs off a SU win and would love to knock New England out of the playoffs after all the beatings they have taken by them this year.

7. Sunday December 28th Bengals -2.5
No one has been paying attention but the bengals are playing pretty good football. They have a solid ground game in Cedric Benson who put up some gaudy numbers last week against the Browns and the defense has been playing well overall. This week they play a bad team with a bad defense and have a shot at ending the season on a good note. The Bengals have covered 15 of 17 versus poor pass defenses - allowing seven or more yards per play - during the second half of the season. The Bengals win in easy fashion over a tired KC team.

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NFL Sunday

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Sunday December 21st Chiefs +3.5
the Dolphins are looking towards the playoffs while the Chiefs are looking towards the draft and off a very tough loss. That won’t stop them from playing hard at home. The Chiefs are 46-15-2 as home dogs and they have won 19 of 23 (16-5-2 ATS) at home in December. On the other hand, the Dolphins are 0-8 as favorites of between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2-points and 3-10 as road chalk in December. They are also 0-9 ATS against poor passing defenses (allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or more). The Dolphins slip up against the Chiefs on the road!

Sunday December 21st Patriots -8
The pats play much better at home and welcome the Arizona Cardinals a team that does not travel well at all. Arizona has had a tough time on the road outside the NFC-West, failing to 'cover' 21 of 31, and the Cardinals are 5-21 ATS on the highway versus a non-division foe off a SU loss. New England is 21-5 ATS versus marginal winning teams (win percentage of 51-60). The Cardinals are still shell shocked after losing to the Vikings at home badly and will drop the ball against a team in a must win situation. The Patriots need to win to keep their slim hopes alive in the AFC! This play becomes more attractive if Baltimore loses on Saturday!

Sunday December 21st Philly -5.5

It’s hard to take road chalk, but even on a short week the Eagles are hot and the Redskins are not. Philadelphia will be looking to avenge a 23-17 loss to Washington as six-point home favorites. The visiting team has cashed in 19 of the past 29 series squabbles, getting the green in the last four. The Eagles are 25-8 ATS in revenge mode after a close loss by seven points or less. They have covered 21 of 31 on the road against division rivals. Hey Bill Cowher if you’re listening you can have a job next year in the capitol!

December 21st Seattle +4.5
this will be an emotional games for the Seahawks as they look to win the last home game for coach Mike Holmgren and his old quarterback will be there to try and make sure he fails. The New York Jets are 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS away versus non-division opponents. Even though the birds have had a bad year this is still one of the toughest places to play!

Take the Seahawks to get the upset!

Sunday December 21st 49ers -5
The Rams have given up after a tough loss last week and Mike Singletary has the niners playing for his job! San Francisco spanked St. Louis as six-point home favorites in the first meeting of the season, 35-16. The 49ers have won 24 of 36 against the Rams (25-10-1 ATS) and they are 13-4-2 ATS at St. Louis. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS in this NFC-West rivalry. The Rams have floundered at a 19-5-1 pace as division home dogs and they are 9-22 ATS against division foes overall. San Francisco is 37-19 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back road games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS 2nd half of season will win big on Sunday!

Saturday Night NFL

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Baltimore /Dallas under 39

This game is going to be one full of defense and running. The Ravens live to play against prime time performers so you know they will be geared up for a game against T.O. and company on prime time! The Cowboys have been playing great football and its been all about the defense to get them there. Prime time games have had a tough time staying under, but not this one.

Monday Night Football

Under 39.5 Cleveland / Philly

Cleveland is fighting for the coaches life just not sure if anyone wants him to stay. Regardless the offense is in trouble! I look for a low scoring game with Philly winning a closer than expected game!

Sunday Pix

Sunday December 14th Oakland +7
wow this is a tough take for anyone with as bad as the Raiders have looked, but they are at home and they are underdogs and they have beaten the Jets in this same spot. They also have extra days to prepare for this game. The Patriots are severely banged up for this game and they will have spent an entire week on the west coast. They did this before this year and won the first game and lost the second against an AFC west team. The Patriots have dropped 18 of 24 ATS versus terrible teams - win percentage of less than 25 percent - during the second half of the season.

Sunday December 14th Packers -1
these two teams are having very disappointing seasons after they had huge off-season expectations. Green bay is the better team as many of the Jacksonville players have quit on the coach and each other. Fred Taylor came out and almost said it a couple of weeks ago and it is showing in how they play. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS off non-conference game
and Jacksonville is 0-6 ATS in home games. The Packers win as a road favorite.
Sunday December 14th Houston +3
this is our favorite spot to back a team we like and we are at it again with the Texans. The theory is to play a team coming home as an underdog off a win outright as an underdog. It helps that we have the Titans playing off a clinching game and the Texans have revenge. Houston has won three straight for the first time in franchise history and also covered four in a row for the first time. Houston is 9-1 ATS at home avenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 points or more. The Texans impress with yet another victory!

Sunday December 14th Buffalo +7.5
The Bills are done for the season not even coming close to winning up in Toronto against the fish. We think you will see a different Buffalo team this week. This is another perfect fade spot we like to take when you get a team that is playing as badly as the Jets and they are a favorite of at least a TD. No team should ever be backed on a losing streak when giving points. The Bills would love to play spoiler and if they want to try and make a run they need this game the most! Buffalo has covered eight of 12 division tests on the road and could pull the upset here!

Sunday December 14th Arizona -3
the cardinals are not happy with a playoff spot, they want a game in Arizona and will push hard to get the win here. With Jackson at the helm for Minnesota they had to rally against Detroit. They will get blown out on the road here. Minnesota has failed to get the money in 22 of its last 26 road finales. The Vikings are 11-20-1 ATS on the road when facing a non-division foe. They have dropped five of seven spread decisions on the highway this year. Arizona has won five of six at home (4-2 ATS). The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS off a straight up win and get buried in the desert this Sunday!

Sunday December 14th Seattle -3
It is always a dangerous proposition when you take a road favorite especially if they just have two wins but we like Seattle here. The Rams have all but given up and the Seahawks are playing inspired football with it being Holmgren’s last season. It may be a little late but it will be enough to get the win here. Seattle is 8-2 ATS off BB ATS losses
and St. Louis is 3-11 ATS off division game. Seattle trashed St. Louis in the first clash of the season as nine-point home favorites, 37-13. The Seahawks are 14-6 ATS versus a division foe over the last four weeks of the season. The Rams are 6-20 ATS avenging a same season setback. Take the birds to beat the Rams!Size: 125 X 125 pixels

Thursday Night Saints / bears

Saints / Bears

Okay let's dissect this puppy---first things first its going to be cold in Chicago tonight so much so that it is being addressed by the teams as they head into the game tonight.

So let's look at the weather....

Right now..

Temperature: 32° F Feels like: 22° F--looks like it will drop to about 25 F around kick and get lower through the night. It is the Windy city so....

Wind From the West Northwest at 13 gusting to 18 mph and that is across the field so to me that may make it tough for FG's and whoever is kicking this week for the Saints.

So there we have it cold and windy got it, but if we know it so do the Bears and the Saints and I am sure they will dress warm so let's move along....

Both of these teams need this game so the motivation is there---Bears in a dead heat in the division and the Saints clinging on to a Wild Card spot....

The Saints have one just once outside the state of Louisiana and are even ATS and the Bears are even ATS at home so that's an even pull, so what about the pure numbers?


When it comes to offense and passing the Saints are at the top of the heap in the league, which is hard to ignore but to me that means the Bears can read the papers too. When it comes to total defense they drop to 21st in the league but the Bears are just 17th so not too great there either. The thing that should worry Bear backers is that they are 28th against the pass, so how do you back the Bears with that information? Well the Bears are 6th against the rush which will make the Saints one dimensional (like they are not already) and they can put extra focus on the pass--the Saints meanwhile struggle against the run so if the Bears want to win this they may want to get into a game of keep away and hit the ground with Forte.

The wind will also help defend the pass and when the Saints try to mix it up on the ground they will run into the strength of the Bears. Stopping the run maybe more important than stopping the pass. When New Orleans runs the ball 30 or more times during the tenure of coach Sean Payton, they are 14-0.

Chicago wants to take away the run (the Bears are No.6 in the NFL, yielding 91.2 yards per game) and put consistent pressure on Brees. Stopping the runs on early downs can get the Saints gunslinger in third-and-longs, where turnovers are more likely to happen.

Saints backers will talk about how well Brees has played against Chicago but the rarely talk about the results. The Saints have been outscored 72-39 in their last two visits to the Windy City and in those two losses they threw 109 passes and ran just 32 times.

How about the intangibles? The Bears field is bad and heard to play on literally....

MY Plays:

okay let's quit babbling and get to playing ball

UNDER 46

I am going to wait and see if I can't get the hook or even 47----

Bears -3 +100

Bucs vs Panthers MNF

Bucs +3

This game should be a close defensive battle. With two evenly matched teams playing in what amounts to a huge game the points should always be taken!This week’s Monday Night system is to play on any division team that won by three or less points last week. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay won 23-20 last Sunday, making them the qualifying team for a system that is 17-5 ATS, 77.2 percent.

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Sunday December 7th

Sunday December 7th Colts -13.5
double digit chalk is always a tough call, but this is a play that has to be made. The Colts are at home and need to win and get the offense back on track after a tough performance against the subpar Browns. This is the perfect team to do it against since the Bengals have thrown in the towel. Take the Colts to finally reward backers at home with a big win. The Bengals are 1-8 ATS vs the conference and that will go to 1-9.

December 7th Eagles +8
going against the Giants has been tough this year, but this is a great spot. Mcnabb is back and ready to prove himself against a worthy opponent and has extra days to prepare. The Eagles have cashed 25 of 33 avenging a loss by seven points or less. The dog is 5-1 in the past six series showdowns. Philadelphia is 20-11 on the road against division rivals and 8-2 as road dogs. The Plaxico issue gets too much for the Giants to bare.

Sunday December 7th Niners +4
last week in this article we declared the niners gave up, boy were we wrong. They went coast to coast to beat the Bills and now come home to face the Jets. The Jets don’t travel well and they lost on the road this year to lowly Oakland. The New York Jets are 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS on the road versus non-division foes. The Jets showed plenty of weaknesses in the game against the Broncos and with travel I am not sold that they will be able to get them fixed in time, thus the small line. Take the niners to get the job done.

Sunday December 7th Buffalo PK
This game is in Canada and this is huge for the NFL and Canadian fans. They pour a ton of support and money into Buffalo and will make sure they show up to support the “home” team. Miami has a track record of playing poorly in Buffalo so traveling to Canada can’t help. Buffalo is off a bad loss at home and revenge should get them ready for this game. The Dolphins are 8-18 ATS versus a division rival after a SU road win. They have also dropped 16 of their last 21 spread decisions versus AFC East foes. The frozen fish get filleted in Canada.

6. Sunday December 7th Dallas +3
this is the game that Dallas needs. It shows that they are back and they can win against top shelf teams and not the bottom feeders that they have faced of late. They get extra time to prepare while Pittsburgh is off a physical game against the Patriots. Pittsburgh has struggled at Heinz Field, failing to get the green in four of six. The Steelers have floundered in 18 of their last 22 as home favorites of 3 1/2-points or less. The Steelers are just 1-10 ATS after scoring over 30 points and the Cowboys beat the Steelers.

7. Sunday December 7th Baltimore -6
It is time to give this team credit. They are doing it with solid defense and with a rookie QB that can manage the system. Baltimore is 17-2 ATS as non-division favorites off a SU win. The Ravens have also cashed 14 of 20 as favorites versus the NFC and 32 of 45 at home against non-division foes. Those numbers are staggering! The redskins are just 2-7 ATS against the AFC and they are reeling after losing big in the division. The Ravens look toward the playoffs and win big at home!

Thursday Night Football

Thursday

December 4th

Over 43.5 San Diego/ Oakland
this game is a good one for total players. The Chargers do not play defense and the Raiders have actually started to click on offense, a little. This will be a breakout game for the Chargers offensively and I look for a huge game on offense from LT and fantasy players should play him! This line is hovering right around the total but the edge goes to the over!

It's been a great season as it winds down to the end of the season, celebrate the winners and please sign up with a sponsor, so the blog can keep going and come back next year!