Monday, September 29, 2008

Monday Night Football

Baltimore +6

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Monday
September 29th
Another team that is starting to believe is the Baltimore Ravens as they have put together a nice start to the season behind a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. The visiting team is 12-5-1 in this AFC-North rivalry. The Ravens have cashed 12 of their last 18 as division road pups. The Ravens getting eight points in this game is a gift as they are playing and winning using a similar style the Steelers have made work with sound running game and great defense. Take the Ravens to keep it close in this game.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

NFC Game of the Month!!

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NFC GAME OF THE MONTH
Tampa Bay -1 (Two Units)
Sunday September 28th
The come from behind win from the Bucs over the bears shows you just how well this team works with Griese at QB and it puts them in a situation we love. Take a home team that is home off a straight up win as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 32-17-3 ATS at home versus a non-division foe and will hand it to the Packers this Sunday in our NFC GAME OF THE MONTH!

49ers +7
Sunday September 28th
The Saints lost another close one and will look forward to coming home but the offense took another hit when they lost TE Shockey for 4-6 weeks with an injury. The 49ers are starting to do well under Martz on offense and they should be able to score plenty against a suspect Saints defense. The Saints are 5-10 as home favorites in September and 12-24-1 at home overall. The road team has cashed in 10 of the past 14 series showdowns.
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Titans -3
Sunday September 28th
The Titans have surprised a few teams as they have come out and done quite well to start the season even without Vince Young. They have done it with a solid running game and great coaching. Tennessee has won six straight dating back to last season. The Titans are 11-4 as non-conference home favorites and 23-10-1 ATS versus NFC teams overall. Minnesota is 9-18-1 as non-division road pups. The Vikings will try to keep this close with their own veteran quarterback but a banged up Peterson will prevent them from doing well today.

KC +9
Sunday September 28th
The Chiefs have established themselves as one of the worst teams in the league but at home getting points they deserve a look. The home team in this AFC-West rivalry is 11-3-1 against the spread and has won 14 of the past 16 encounters straight up. Kansas City has cashed 11 straight versus a division opponent after allowing 34 points or more. The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS at home in double revenge mode. The Chiefs showed some signs of success with the running game last week and they should be able to put up a fight in a must win game. Take the points in this one!
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Houston +8
Sunday September 28th
Taking a team that is yet to win or bring home the money ATS is a tough pull but the Jaguars have a habit of falling down after a big game. Houston has held the upper hand against Jacksonville, cashing the ticket in nine of the past dozen meetings. The Jaguars are 12-21-1 as favorites of eight points or more. The Texans are 13-6-1 ATS off two straight spread losses, and will keep this close enough to get the money with the eight points.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NFL This Week

Check out this page every day leading up to the NFL kickoff and there will be new games posted!!

Washington +11
Sunday September 28th

Dallas has set themselves up to be one of the best in the league with convincing wins, but the line and popularity has grown to high for this game. The Dallas bandwagon has pushed this line into double digits when it should be around seven. The dog in this NFC-East rivalry has won 13 of the past 22 meetings SU and cashed 17 of 22. Dallas is 10-21-1 as double-digit favorites. Washington is 45-28 as dogs of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Washington always rises to the occasion to play the cowboys and they will keep it within the number in this division game.

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Thursday, September 11, 2008

NFL Week 2

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1. Monday September 15th
Dallas / Philly Over 47

The thing with both of these teams is that the offense for both squads looked to be in mid-season form. McNabb put up the best numbers of the week although they beat up the hapless Rams and Romo and TO were on the same page out the gate. Philadelphia has zipped 'over' in 16 of 21 as dogs and for those that want to play a side it is interesting to note that the straight up winner is 29-4-1 ATS in this series.

2. Sunday September 14th
Bengals -1
The Bengals are off a tough loss to the start the season to the Ravens in a game where the offense was silent. Carson Palmer came out publicly and said that the offense is fine and it will show this week. The titans have not been able to focus much on football with all of the drama surrounding Vince Young. The team came off a big win but they will stumble to the home team Bengals here.

3. Sunday September 14th
Saints PK

The Saints got some bad news this week when the realized Colston would be out with an injury and take away one of the Saints best weapons for 4-6 weeks. The good news is the Saints just re-load as Henderson will be fine at wide out and they will bring the backs into the set more often catching passes. It was revealed in week one the Redskins have problems at the QB spot. New Orleans has 'covered' in eight of its past 10 road openers. Washington is 7-21 ATS at home in September and the Saints are 17-5 ATS off home division win.


4. Sunday September 14th
Patriots +1.5

The biggest news of the week was the Patriots losing Brady and how they would respond. This is when the Patriots are at their best when everyone counts them out and the coaching and the veteran leadership will get them through this. Watch Randy Moss have one of his biggest games as he has already said to watch out for the Pats even without Tom Brady. New England is 70-43 ATS as an underdog and the NY Jets are 6-19 ATS at home in September. New England has won eight of its last nine road meetings with the Jets and cashed nine straight. The Patriots have also 'covered' eight of their last 11 road openers while New York has floundered at a 2-13-1 clip in its last 16 home debuts.

5. Sunday September 14th
Detroit +3

Aaron Rodgers played brilliantly and the Packers looked just fine without #4 and the Lions lost to the Falcons and most people would say the Lions are in for another beating this week. Not so fast. Kitna is a much better QB than Jackson and they get the Packers on a short week. The home team is 27-7 SU and 24-8 ATS in this heated NFC-North rivalry. Detroit lost both meetings with the Packers by double-digits in 2007. The Lions are 20-6 ATS at home in double revenge mode. The lions roar and beat the Packers.

6. Sunday September 14th
Cleveland +6

The Sunday night game should be a good one as the Browns will be at home to take on the Steelers after getting shell shocked by the Cowboys. Cleveland is 15-2 ATS after allowing 27 points or more and it has cashed 17 of its last 26 as dogs in September. The Steelers have owned this series of late but the Browns get revenge as home divisional dogs on national television! Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS after scoring 35+ points and fall flat here.

7. Monday September 15th
Houston NL

This is aplay if the Texans are dogs or favorites of four or less. The line is slow to come here for many reasons but the storm has moved the game to Monday night. The Ravens rookie QB will finally face a defense this week and the Texans will rebound off a bad loss at Pittsburgh. Baltimore has lost 20 of 27 on the road and failed to cash 21 of 27 and it was 0-8 ATS on the highway in 2007. The Ravens have come up short in their last seven ATS versus AFC-South foes and in 18 of 23 ATS after playing at home. Take the Texans to win here!

Monday, September 8, 2008

Monday Night Total

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Raiders / Denver Over 41


This game will be close to over by the half. The Raiders offense will be ready to play tonight and McFadden will be able to take pressure off Russell and give him some time to throw. The Raiders and the Broncos had a horrible defensive posture in the preseason as they ranked 30th and 22nd. That should allow Cutler to get some open lanes and score early and often. Many of the people are on the Raiders and I like them do but the bigger and better play to me is on the Over in this game.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Sunday picks and last chance for $500!

1.Oakland +3
Monday September 8th
Mark my words: At the end of the season the Raiders will have a better record than the Denver Broncos. The Raiders are eager to start the season and I can’t blame them with McFadden on the team and that will take some pressure of Russell at QB. That is exactly what this offense needed. Denver is 5-15 ATS as favorite and Oakland is 4-0 ATS vs. Denver. The Black Hole is back on Monday night and the Raiders win!
2. Kansas City +16.5 - Sunday September 7th Pre season makes a difference in the NFL and the Patriots have looked GOD awful in the early going and Tom Brady has yet to take a snap. Yet Patriot backers will expect them to cover a double digit spread. Tom Brady’s health is questionable and the Chiefs will surprise some teams this year. With a running game that can slow down the clock these points look nice. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 as double digit dogs.
3. San Francisco / Arizona Over 41.5 - Sunday September 7thThere are plenty of bad qualities that you can see these two teams have but it’s not on offense. Kurt Warner is back with a solid group at wide out and a running game that will open things up and get plenty of points on the board. The 49ers counter with JT O’Sullivan and he has had an awesome pre-season and has gotten his offense on board. Points will be a plenty in this game. Arizona has gone over the total in 9 of the last 12 games against the division.
4. Tampa Bay +3.5 - Sunday September 7thThe Saints and the Buccaneers will be two of the most improved teams this year and should do well. The Saints however had to play the part of nomads again as they left to practice in Indianapolis to avoid Hurricane Gustav. The Buccaneers have looked great in preseason and this will be a close well fought game and that means I want the points. The Saints are a wretched 3-11 ATS in the last 14 as home favorites.
5. Cleveland +5.5 - Sunday September 7thThe Browns were 12-4 ATS last season and many of the experts predict that they will be even better this year. The reason I am sold on this game is because we have a home dog at plus points and a offense that will put up plenty of points whether it is Anderson or Quinn. The Cowboys have an offense that can match them but it will come down to the end and I will take the points.
6. Pittsburgh -6.5 Sunday September 7thThe more things change the more they stay the same. Houston is improved but not in the league of the Steelers. This is my only chalk play for a reason because the Steelers will blow the doors off Houston. Watch the most impressive rushing attack in the league take over and the Steelers to leave Houston in the dust!
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Thursday, September 4, 2008

$500 NFL Weekly Contest!

Hailmary Football Betting

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Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Thursday NFL Selections

Thursday NFL



Redskins +4

Hailmary football betting


Washington is 28-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and always
get up for a game against the Giants. I am going to go out on a limb and say
that I don't even think the defensing champs go to the playoffs this year and
will have the hangover that usually comes with winning a championship.

Weekly NFL Contest!



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Monday, September 1, 2008

Preseason Report Card

Grabbed this from another site but it has good info!



Is the NFL ready for its own Tampa Bay Rays? The Patriots have been the gold
standard, but with Tom Brady hurt they look old and disinterested. Who knows
what’s going on with Peyton Manning’s knee? Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora
is done for the year and there is noise in New York about trying to lure Michael
Strahan out of retirement. The winds of change may be blowing as the NFL counts
down to the Sept. 4 opener. An early look at teams that figure to get out of the
gate quickly, and some that might not:

NFC
EAST


Has any Super Bowl champion ever gotten less love than
these Giants? You beat the 18-0 Patriots one day, and 24 hours later the wise
guys are saying you won’t even make the playoffs next season. The press in New
York wants Michael Strahan to come out of retirement to shore up the banged-up
defensive line.

OFF TO A FAST START –Dallas Cowboys- There’s a bit of a
problem at WR, where Terry Glenn’s departure could force Terrell Owens to catch
more balls in traffic. And you wonder how long Tony Romo will survive by running
around. Still, the Cowboys have the most talent in the division and the early
going isn’t exactly Normandy.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the Eagles. There are
always issues with Arlen Specter’s homies. Brian Westbrook has a new contract,
but he’s touched the ball 1,461 times (carries and receptions) over six seasons.
Eagle fans will learn that Asante Samuel gambles a bit too much and can give up
big plays.

NFC SOUTH

Ok, it was only an
exhibition. But Tampa Bay was going up against the Patriots’ starting Front 7 in
the second preseason game, and the Bucs dominated. If New Orleans can’t figure
out what went wrong last year, and fix it, Tampa can go 9-7 again and steal this
division. Fans in Florida were shocked when reserve safety Donte Nicholson was
tasered and arrested during a late-July scuffle with police at a St. Petersburg
nightclub. Who knew St. Petersburg had nightclubs?

OFF TO A FAST START –
Just a guess here - New Orleans. The Saints have moved the ball well in
exhibitions, Jeremy Shockey should behave for at least a few months before
mouthing off, and maybe Reggie Bush will finally get it. The opener, at home
against the Bucs, could set the tone for the season.

STICK A FORK IN . .
. the Falcons. Who else? Jim Plunkett was tossed around like a rag doll early in
his career but survived. Hopefully Matt Ryan will stay off the operating table
long enough to figure out NFL defenses.

NFC
WEST


You know you’ve had a bad season when San Francisco and
Arizona are in your division, and you still finish last. But the Rams have been
dead in the water since losing to Carolina in the 2003 playoffs, going 25-39
since that day. Maybe the team is suffering from perpetual jet lag, since it has
to travel halfway across the country for division roads games at San Francisco,
Arizona and Seattle.

OFF TO A FAST START – Seattle Seahawks– Seattle
plays like manure in big road games, and the Seahawks are at the Giants in Game
4. But if they can get by the opener in Buffalo, they have two layups at home
(49ers, Rams) and would be 3-0 with lots of momentum heading into the Giants
game. Health of Matt Hasselbeck and wide receivers is a huge concern,
though.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the Arizona Cardinals. On paper these guys
should be all right. But WR Anquan Boldin is trying to shoot his way out of
town, and Matt Leinart hasn’t shown that he’s mature enough to be the starting
quarterback on a team ready to make a playoff run.

NFC
NORTH


Does anyone have Spergon Wynn’s cell phone number? This
division is desperate for a quarterback. Brett You-Know-Who has taken his act to
New York, and basically that leaves us with the Pips minus Gladys Knight. Aaron
Rogers may or may not be ready, Jon Kitna throws way too many INTs, Tavaris
Jackson is hurting and the Bears could barely make up their mind between Rex
Grossman and Kyle Orton.

OFF TO A FAST START - Detroit Lions (?!) - The
door is wide open for Rod Marinelli’s Lions. Incredibly, the Lions do not face a
top-quality quarterback until Dec. 14 at Indianapolis. They could actually be
good enough to keep people awake on the couch after Thanksgiving dinner. That
2-6 road record has to improve, though.

STICK A FORK IN . . . da Bears.
The offensive and defensive lines are a mess, and the running game is a work in
progress. They might be outscored by the Chicago Fire this season.

AFC
EAST

Red flags are up from Montpelier to Cape Cod after the
Patriots mailed in three exhibition losses. But can the Jets or Bills make a
serious run at the Tyrannosaurus Rexes of the NFL? It’s an axiom in politics
that you can’t beat somebody with nobody, and that applies here. Brett Favre is
a nice addition, but aren’t the Jets morphing into the old Redskins by signing
every over-the-hill veteran on the market? The Dolphins appear light years from
contending, and Buffalo/Toronto will continue to be a tough out but doesn’t
appear to have enough juice offensively to make the playoffs.

OUT OF THE
GATE FAST – New England Patriots - First four opponents: KC, Jets, Dolphins and
49ers. That’s all you need to know. According to one publication’s mathematical
formula, New England has the easiest schedule of any team since 1992, which
should soften any dropoff.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the Dolphins. San Diego
in the opener. Ugh. On a positive note, Ricky Williams is reportedly playing
well.

NFC SOUTH

How can you not like the Jaguars?
They play hard, they don’t whine, they work in the weight room. You know they
went to see “300” and not “Sex and the City.” Beating Pittsburgh and New England
back-to-back on the road in the playoffs last year was just too high a hill to
climb. They’re not going away.

OUT OF THE GATE FAST – Indianapolis Colts,
assuming Peyton Manning is OK. But if the Colts head into November at less than
5-2, there is a very uncomfortable five-game stretch that includes a home game
against New England and road grinders at Pittsburgh, San Diego and
Cleveland.

STICK A FORK IN . . . nobody. OK, if you crave negativity,
defenses might figure out that Tennessee’s Vince Young is not developing as fast
as everyone in Music City wants. But come on. The Titans went 10-6 last year
without Pacman Jones (or maybe because he was gone). As mathematically
impossible as it sounds, every team might be at least .500 against this
season.

AFC WEST

Everyone seems to like the
Chargers, and a benign early-season schedule should grease the skids for them.
But there’s something about those guys that makes me a bit queasy. Can’t Philip
Rivers shut his mouth and play? Did LaDainian Tomlimson have to spend that
entire AFC Championship Game planted on the bench with his helmet on? When (or
is) Shawne Merriman coming back?

OFF TO A FAST START – San Diego
Chargers. It’s hard to figure out a scenario in which the Chargers don’t win
this division. All they have to do is survive early; the last part of the
schedule includes a slew of bottom-feeders.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the
Denver Broncos. Consider this: Denver gave up almost as many points as the
Dolphins did last season, including 44 to Detroit. And they resorted to signing
37-year-old Tyrone Poole to shore up a secondary that is already banged up. If
you’re thinking the Chiefs should be here instead, note that they have Oakland
at home in Week 2 and are at Atlanta in Week 3.

AFC
NORTH


OK, you give Derek Anderson a ton of money in the
offseason, commit to him as your QB and then allow him to get knocked senseless
in an exhibition. There’s good reason the Browns have never been to a Super
Bowl. Not much is settled in this division. Everyone plays each other early
before crossover games start against the NFC East and it’s possible that every
team could be 2-2 at the quarter pole. The only thing certain here is that this
division will not produce a wild card team.

OUT OF THE GATE FAST – The
best bet would be Pittsburgh, which at least has a stable quarterback. Baltimore
hasn’t had any traction since the Super Bowl in 2001, Cleveland’s defense
doesn’t appear as strong as advertised, and Cincinnati, as always, is a
mess.

STICK A FORK IN … the Ravens. Don’t you get the feeling that every
football, hockey, basketball and baseball franchise in the Baltimore/Washington
corridor is stuck in
quicksand?