test run

Test run

Superbowl Selection

My superbowl selection is posted at my all-sports blog as well as some great bonuses!

http://takeagamble.wordpress.com/

Check it out and enjoy the big game!

AFC / NFC Championship Games

NFC Championship

This post season has been a post season for the underdogs and its nice to get a home one for this game. The Cardinals are at home and that to me is a huge, because they have played well here all year. Here is a great stat against the Eagles.Since 1982, teams that knock off the Super Bowl champ are 0-10 straight up and 1-9 against the spread the following week! That is amazing and that just shows you how hard it is to rebound from a big win in the playoffs like that!

The Cardinals have been doing it with defense and running and the fact that no one can stop Larry Fitzgerald.

Arizona +3

The Cardinals have’covered seven of their last 10 at home and look great with the points this week!The energy and the crowd will help the Cardinals get revenge for a loss to the Eagles earlier this season.

Take the points and the Cardinals!

Arizona +3

AFC Championship

The Steelers have looked poised all year to make a run at the big game as they have played the best defense in the game. This week they face a Ravens team that they have already beaten twice with a unproven rookie at the helm in Joe Flaco.Baltimore has cashed eight of nine against conference foes and six of seven versus division opponents.

The Ravens are 9-0 ATS coming off an extremely close road win by three points or less as well. Even thought they are at home it will be asking for alot to have a team beat another team for the third time in the season.The Steelers have come up short in four of their last five ATS in conference championship games.Pittsburgh has also dropped nine straight spread decisions after scoring 35 points or more in its last game.Baltimore has won 11 of its past 13 games and is 7-3 on the road, including 2-0 in the postseason. This will be a tough game that will go down to the wire with Baltimore having a real shot of pulling off what seems like the impossible upset. Take the Ravens plus the points as meetings between these two teams always end up close!

Ravens +6

GET A FREE $100 BET ON THE GAMES BY CLICKING THIS BANNER AND SIGNING UP TODAY! Free play for new customers only! Deposit $100 and get $100!

AFC Wild card Ravens vs Dolphins

These two teams have shocked the world by even making it this far.

The Ravens had to do it with a young offensive unit and rookie coach behind an aging defense.

For the Dolphins they had to come out of the cellar with the the help of a new coach and a new sheriff in town in Bill Parcells.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST LINE:


One thing that we noticed yesterday is that the home teams will be playing tough and we get our second rookie signal caller on the road. Miami comes into the game with revenge for losing in week seven. When it comes to turnovers this game gets interesting. Baltimore has caused the most in the league while the Dolphins are the best at holding on the the ball. So in essence something has to give.

The Ravens covered five of last six road games, but are just 1-8 ATS as road chalk. Teams like Miami that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years are 18-8 ATS in the Wild Card round and they are 18-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points.

Note that Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco did not start or end the regular season particularly well. Through five games, he had just one TD against seven INT’s and 2:3 ratio over the final four games. With Matt Ryan’s loss yesterday, rookie QB’s dropped to 2-7 all-time in the first-time playoff starts.

Home Underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95 as mentioned yesterday and Miami has the talent to keep this close. As I mentioned Miami is very good at holding on to the ball one of the best in the league and that is good news.

Turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 119-24-3 ATS (83.2%).

The fish keep this close where the points are worth the take and don’t be surprised if they are moving on to the next round!

Miami +3.5

Saturday Wild Card Games

Sign up at Bet Jamaica and get in the free $50,000 playoff contest!

Here are my plays for today!



Colts @ Chargers

The biggest news is that it was just announced that LT is a game time decision and he has a detached tendon in his groin! (Ouch!)

--So let me stop right here and say if you like the Colts then get them now because this news will make the line jump! Now back to your scheduled write up

While this is big news in the playoffs for LT to be hurting I don’t think it will matter I think he will suit up and play tonight and he may not be at 100% but Sproles has been elusive and a yard gainer when filling in.

The Colts went on a nine in a row run to win the wild card and get an invite to San Diego for this game. With that run Peyton Manning went on to secure an MVP trophy. It is interesting to note that wildcard road teams that won 11 games or more in the regular season are just 5-6 SU & 4-6-1 ATS (40%) in their first playoff game.

The Chargers had to go on an impressive run to win four straight down the stretch to include a comeback against KC and a tough road win over the Bucs. Phillip Rivers is having one of his best years of his career and is ready for this game tonight. Rivers now faces a Colts defense that’s allowed just six touchdown passes - the fewest ever by a team in a 16-game season. That unit, though, will be without linebacker and defensive captain Gary Brackett, who will miss his fifth straight game with a cracked bone in his lower right leg. With the announcement of the injury of LT, this line should go up and make the Chargers a dog of maybe even 3 or more which is good to know for Bolt backers as home underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95.

There are some other good statistical trends that back the bolts
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 24-16 ATS (60.0%)
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 27-19 ATS (58.7%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing are 25-18 ATS (58.1%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing and yield fewer rushing yards per game are 10-5 ATS (66.7%)
And some against the Colts

Road teams that allow 4.15 YPR or more are just 11-17 ATS (39.3%)
Teams that allow fewer passing yards per attempt on the season are 37-45 ATS (45.0%).

I am going with the Chargers in this game. The colts beat them once at home and will try to do it for a second time this year and the Chargers have proven that they can play the Colts tough. The Chargers are 19-8 ATS vs. conference and 6-0 ATS at home off SU win. The Chargers are 10-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. They are also 14-4 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.


Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO) good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )


I am taking the Chargers in this game. I am going to wait to game time thinking that the line will move in favor of the Colts and I will be able to steal some points in what could be a close game.

Chargers

Size: 160 X 120 pixels




NFC Wild Card Game

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals 1 / 50.5

This line like all of them this weekend are interesting as home teams are either a dog or a pick’em going into today’s action. That would indicate these teams are somewhat even.

The Cardinals had a great year as Kurt Warner regained his MVP form and they showed they have the best wideouts in the game. They clinched a home game in Arizona for the first time in forever and got the state a buzz with NFL playoff fever. They then hit the skids, getting hammered at home to the Vikings and giving up New England before rebounding late in the season against Seattle, but are they too late?

The Falcons are one of the surprise teams of the year and they have the offensive rookie of the year in Matt Ryan at QB. Michael Turner has been a stud behind one of the better yet lesser known offensive lines in football. They now take their game to the road to see if they can move forward and get a win. Matt Ryan has done well in college post season but it’s another story in the NFL. Unlike the Cardinals the Falcons ride a three game winning streak headed into the playoffs.

Backing a rookie on the road is a scary proposition but its one that I am willing to do here and it’s mostly due to Michael Turner. Teams that can run the ball pounded the Cardinals and pulled away early and with Turner running well that will free up passing lanes for Ryan using play action. In the Wild Card round being at home is not always the best thing as hosts are 8-8 and 6-10 against the spread. Arizona is just 2-7 ATS as an underdog of late. The Falcons laid down in the last game and gave up chunks of yardage on defense but if you look closer you will see they have a pretty decent defense. The Falcons defense gave a flat performance in allowing the reeking Rams to gain 400 yards and are 26-6 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. There are some pretty decent trends that favor the Cardinals too but I am taking the Falcons in this game.

Atlanta -1

Week 17 picks

1. Sunday December 28th Tampa Bay -13
The Raiders looked great last week in the final game at home but don’t look for a repeat performance this week. Tampa needs the win and have killed their own position down the stretch. It is also the last game for DC Monty Kiffin. Tampa Bay has lost three straight and now not only needs to beat Oakland, but also hope for Philadelphia to beat Dallas to earn a post-season berth. The Bucs are 20-12-1 ATS at home in December and 27-10 ATS after losing SU as favorites. The Raiders have come up short in 20 of their last 25 on the road during the final month of the season and dropped 17 of their last 21 finales ATS. Oakland is 0-7 ATS vs. NFC and loses big!

2. Sunday December 28th Philly -2
This is a big game for both squads as it is a must win to even have a shot at the playoffs. The Cowboys had a big chance but lost at home when the defense collapsed in the waning minutes of the game. Philadelphia is 25-8 ATS avenging a close loss by seven points or less. The Eagles are also 8-1 ATS off a division setback. Dallas has flopped in 19 of its last 26 season finales ATS. There is nothing McNabb would like more than to send T.O. home for the playoffs. A big game from McNabb and Westbrook will put Dallas to rest for the season.

3. Sunday December 28th Vikings -6.5
The Giants have nothing left to play for while the Vikings have everything in the world to play for. Minnesota wins the NFC North with a victory or a Chicago loss. The Vikings play very well at home and the Giants will look to avoid injuries. The defending champs are 12-19 as road favorites of three or more and 10-16 ATS on the road after allowing 28 points or more. The Giants should just go through the motions and this will be close if not an outright win for the Vikings.

4. Sunday December 28th Houston -2.5
The Bears won an overtime game on Monday night to stay alive in the playoffs but now have to go to Houston. The Texans were playing great ball until they ran into a buzz saw in the pathetic Oakland Raiders. The last game at home and off an embarrassment the Texans will throttle the Bears on a short week. Chicago has struggled on the road down the stretch, posing an 8-29-1 spread mark on the road in December and failing at a 2-10-2 clip in its last 14 tries. The Bears are 6-10-1 ATS on the highway against AFC opponents. Take the Texans to win big!

5. Sunday December 28th Jets -3
The Jets need this win and they need the Patriots to lose if they are going to make into the playoffs. New York has won 12 of 16 against Miami, including a 24-14 win as 2 1/2-point road favorites this year. The Jets have 'covered' at a torrid 12-3-2 clip versus the Dolphins at the Meadowlands. Miami has dropped 14 of its last 20 road finales ATS and is 10-25 ATS versus division foes the last four week of the season. Miami is a pathetic 49-72 ATS vs. the division. The Jets win after an embarrassment last week in Seattle.

6 Sunday December 28th Buffalo +6.5
Everyone is talking about how the Patriots need the Jets to win or Baltimore to lose to make the playoffs, but hold the phone. The Patriots still need to win to make sure that they even have a shot at the playoffs and as you can tell by the performance in Buffalo the bill are not done playing by a long shot. They have cashed seven of nine as home dogs off a SU win and would love to knock New England out of the playoffs after all the beatings they have taken by them this year.

7. Sunday December 28th Bengals -2.5
No one has been paying attention but the bengals are playing pretty good football. They have a solid ground game in Cedric Benson who put up some gaudy numbers last week against the Browns and the defense has been playing well overall. This week they play a bad team with a bad defense and have a shot at ending the season on a good note. The Bengals have covered 15 of 17 versus poor pass defenses - allowing seven or more yards per play - during the second half of the season. The Bengals win in easy fashion over a tired KC team.

DEPOSIT $100 AND GET A FREE $100 ONLY FROM MY BLOG!

NFL Sunday

Sunday NFL Special from WagerWeb!
WagerWeb wanted to give all the readers of the blog a special thanks for reading! Anyone who signs up and deposits at least $100 with get a $100 free play! That's a 100% Bonus for signing up! You can only get it if you sign up here at the blog and are a new customer! Click the baner and sign up today!

Sunday December 21st Chiefs +3.5
the Dolphins are looking towards the playoffs while the Chiefs are looking towards the draft and off a very tough loss. That won’t stop them from playing hard at home. The Chiefs are 46-15-2 as home dogs and they have won 19 of 23 (16-5-2 ATS) at home in December. On the other hand, the Dolphins are 0-8 as favorites of between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2-points and 3-10 as road chalk in December. They are also 0-9 ATS against poor passing defenses (allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or more). The Dolphins slip up against the Chiefs on the road!

Sunday December 21st Patriots -8
The pats play much better at home and welcome the Arizona Cardinals a team that does not travel well at all. Arizona has had a tough time on the road outside the NFC-West, failing to 'cover' 21 of 31, and the Cardinals are 5-21 ATS on the highway versus a non-division foe off a SU loss. New England is 21-5 ATS versus marginal winning teams (win percentage of 51-60). The Cardinals are still shell shocked after losing to the Vikings at home badly and will drop the ball against a team in a must win situation. The Patriots need to win to keep their slim hopes alive in the AFC! This play becomes more attractive if Baltimore loses on Saturday!

Sunday December 21st Philly -5.5

It’s hard to take road chalk, but even on a short week the Eagles are hot and the Redskins are not. Philadelphia will be looking to avenge a 23-17 loss to Washington as six-point home favorites. The visiting team has cashed in 19 of the past 29 series squabbles, getting the green in the last four. The Eagles are 25-8 ATS in revenge mode after a close loss by seven points or less. They have covered 21 of 31 on the road against division rivals. Hey Bill Cowher if you’re listening you can have a job next year in the capitol!

December 21st Seattle +4.5
this will be an emotional games for the Seahawks as they look to win the last home game for coach Mike Holmgren and his old quarterback will be there to try and make sure he fails. The New York Jets are 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS away versus non-division opponents. Even though the birds have had a bad year this is still one of the toughest places to play!

Take the Seahawks to get the upset!

Sunday December 21st 49ers -5
The Rams have given up after a tough loss last week and Mike Singletary has the niners playing for his job! San Francisco spanked St. Louis as six-point home favorites in the first meeting of the season, 35-16. The 49ers have won 24 of 36 against the Rams (25-10-1 ATS) and they are 13-4-2 ATS at St. Louis. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS in this NFC-West rivalry. The Rams have floundered at a 19-5-1 pace as division home dogs and they are 9-22 ATS against division foes overall. San Francisco is 37-19 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back road games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS 2nd half of season will win big on Sunday!