NFL Week 9 Trends

The Detroit Lions (5-2, 4-2-1) have the Motor City faithful excited for the first time in nearly a decade. The Lions haven't finished with a winning record since 1998 and they have advanced to the postseason since 1999. They have a golden opportunity to approach both of those milestones in 2007 following a surprising 5-2 start.
Detroit has reestablished its home field advantage this year, winning its first three at Ford Field after coming up short in 11 of its previous 15. The Lions will try to win three in a row for the first time since 2000 this Sunday when they welcome Denver (3-3, 1-5 prior to Monday) to Motown.
The Broncos have cashed 27 of 42 when playing the first of back-to-back games on the road. They have also 'covered' at a 28-14-1 clip as underdogs and at a 10-5-1 pace on the highway against NFC opposition.
Detroit is 15-3 ATS at home after two SU wins in a row and 7-0 in November. However, the Lions are just 11-20-1 as home favorites and 3-9 as non-conference chalk.


Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 9 NFL menu appear below.


SKINS (4-3, 3-3-1) at JETS (1-7, 1-6-1)
The New York Jets have come up short in their last five trips to the post ATS and they are 0-3-1 ATS at the Meadowlands. The Jets are 10-21-1 ATS at home when facing NFC teams and 10-21-1 as underdogs. They have cashed 21 of 27 off a home loss to a division rival. Washington is 2-5-1 in its last eight chances as favorites. The Redskins have been on the low side in nine of their last 13 as non-conference favorites and in nine of 11 as road chalk of 3 ½-points or less. New York has eclipsed the 'total' in eight of nine at home when the number was between 35 ½ and 38.


PACKERS (5-1, 4-2 prior to Monday) at CHIEFS (4-3, 5-2)
Kansas City is 19-6-1 ATS at home off a straight up and ATS win. Green Bay had failed at a 9-3-1 clip versus AFC opponents pending the results of Monday's battle with Denver. The Chiefs have zipped 'over' in 21 of 30 as non-conference favorites.



CARDS (3-4, 5-1-1) at BUCS (4-4 SU&ATS)
Arizona is 3-18 ATS on the highway versus a non-division foe off a SU loss. However, the Cards have 'covered' 12 of 17 after a bye, including nine of their last 11 as underdogs. Tampa Bay has thrived at home versus non-division opponents, getting the green at a 32-17-2 clip. The Bucs have also cashed 25 of 34 after losing SU as favorites and 23 of 35 after losing by three points or less. Arizona has soared 'over' in 12 of 15 as road dogs and in 10 of 11 away from home when the 'total' was between 35 ½ and 42. Conversely, Tampa Bay has strayed below the limit in 16 of 20 as home favorites.


PANTHERS (4-3 SU&ATS) at TITANS (5-2, 4-3)
Carolina has cashed at a 49-26 clip as road dogs and it is 32-15 as short-enders of seven points or less away from home. Tennessee is 8-21 as home chalk of between 3 ½ and seven points. However, the Titans are 10-4 as non-conference home favorites and 21-11 ATS overall against NFC foes. The Panthers are 20-10-2 as non-division road pups, but just 3-11 ATS on grass. Tennessee has been on the high side in 29 of 43 non-conference tests and in 14 of 16 after scoring and allowing 14 points or less.


49ERS (2-5, 2-4-1) at FALCONS (1-6, 4-3)
Atlanta is 11-23-1 ATS at home as non-division home favorites. The Falcons have floundered in six of their last nine overall as home chalk. San Francisco has blown 'over' at a 28-16-1 pace on the road outside its division. Atlanta has ducked 'under' in eight of nine as home favorites and in 22 of its last 31 in November at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have eclipsed the number in 24 of 30 off a division road loss.


JAGUARS (5-2, 4-3) at SAINTS (3-4, 2-5)
New Orleans hasn't fared well against AFC teams in the Big Easy (4-11-1 ATS). The Saints are a dismal 9-21-1 ATS at home. Jacksonville has 'covered' at a 16-7-1 rate as dogs and at a 23-10-1 clip versus non-division foes. New Orleans has slipped below the number in 13 of 19 as home favorites of 3 ½-points or less.


BENGALS (2-5, 2-4-1) at BILLS (3-4, 5-2)
Buffalo has won six straight and cashed five of six versus Cincinnati dating back to 1992. The Bills are 21-8 ATS in November at home. However, they are 7-19 ATS off a double-digit division win. The Bengals are 1-8 ATS after losing two of three and 5-12 ATS on the road after losing by 14 points or more. They have also come up short in six of their last eight against NFC-East opponents. Buffalo has slipped 'under' in 13 of 15 as home favorites of 3 ½-points or less.


CHARGERS (4-3 SU&ATS) at VIKINGS (2-5, 2-3-2)
San Diego has several impressive numbers on this week's resume. The Chargers are 21-6 ATS on the road after allowing 10 points or less and 26-10 ATS after winning by 13 points or more. They have also 'covered' 22 of 30 on the road against NFC foes. Minnesota is 20-10 as home dogs, but 0-2 this season. San Diego has eclipsed the 'total' in 20 of 28 games as a non-conference favorite.


SEAHAWKS (4-3, 3-3-1) at BROWNS (4-3, 5-2)
Cleveland looks to win three in a row for the first time since 2001. The Browns are 17-6-1 ATS after scoring 23 points or more, but 7-14-1 ATS off a SU win. Seattle is 3-10 ATS on the road against AFC rivals and 0-8 ATS off a blowout win over a division rival. The Seahawks have zipped 'over' in 10 of 13 as non-conference dogs. Cleveland has headed in the opposite direction in nine of 10 as home favorites of 3 ½-points or less.


PATS (8-0 SU&ATS) at COLTS (7-0, 5-1-1)
Indianapolis has cashed 11 of its last 14 at home. The last time the Colts were home underdogs was in Game 4 of the 1999 season when they lost to Miami, 34-31. New England has won six straight on the road and cashed 12 of 14. The Patriots are 8-1 as road favorites the last two years and 12-2 SU. They have 'covered' 10 of 12 versus Indianapolis and won and cashed three straight at the RCA Dome. Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS in Weeks 5-9. They are 4-10 ATS at home versus an opponent with a win percentage of over .666. New England has bounced 'over' in seven of eight games this year. The Colts have followed suit at a 22-9-3 rate as underdogs.


TEXANS (3-5, 2-5-1) at RAIDERS (2-5, 3-4)
Oakland is 0-7 ATS at home after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games and 5-16 as favorites. Houston has failed to get the green in its last five trips to the post and in five of its last seven on the road. The Raiders have gone 'under' in 14 of 16 at home after the first month of the season. The Texans have stayed on the low side at an 18-11-1 rate as road short-enders.


COWBOYS (6-1, 4-2-1) at EAGLES (3-4 SU&ATS)
Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 15 at home versus Dallas. The SU winner in this NFC-East rivalry is 27-4-1 ATS. The Cowboys are 24-12-1 as road favorites of seven points or less and they have cashed 12 of 14 the week before facing the Giants. The Eagles have trickled 'under' in 24 of 33 at home during Weeks 5-9, but they have topped the 'total' in 13 of 16 as underdogs.


RAVENS (4-3, 1-6) at STEELERS (5-2 SU&ATS)
The visiting team is 10-5-1 ATS in this AFC-North rivalry. Pittsburgh is 16-6 as favorites of 3 ½ to 9 ½-points. The Steelers have 'covered' 11 of their last 13 at home under the Monday night lights and five straight with revenge. Baltimore has cashed four straight against Pittsburgh and won three of four SU. The Ravens are 18-5 off an upset loss as favorites and 10-5 ATS on the road after scoring 14 points or less. However, they have dropped 16 of 23, both SU and ATS on the road. The Steelers have topped the number in 15 of 18 as home favorites and in 12 of 13 at home against conference rivals. Conversely, Baltimore has ducked 'under' in 19 of 27 against conference foes and in 22 of 32 on grass.