Monday Night Football Dallas @ Buffalo

I am going to start this game off by looking at the consensus numbers. I use consensus numbers as part of my handicapping process but they are never a primary tool. The theory with consensus is simple bet against the teams the public are betting on because more than likely the public will lose. This is not always the case which is why I don’t make it a major tool.

Tonight’s consensus as of now:
69% are on Dallas
65% are on the over

Food for thought, if you went against every team that had a 60% or more following you would have gone 5-1.

GET THE BEST LINE FOR TONIGHT'S GAME HERE


Pure Numbers: Some handicappers overlook pure numbers and I think that could be a crucial mistake. Make sure to look at defensive numbers and turnovers and penalties. Dallas numbers look very nice punctuated by a 4-0 ATS the mark, but look at the teams they have played. Giants, Miami, the Bears and the Rams, two of these teams have yet to win a game so you would expect to take the nice numbers that Dallas shows with a grain of salt. Dallas is second only to the Baltimore Ravens in total penalties (32) and penalty yards (266). The numbers for the Cowboys’ run defense are respectable only because opponents trail by three scores in the third quarter and have to abandon the ground game. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is concerned. Why else would he bring in Tank Johnson to play nose tackle, a position unfamiliar to him? The Bills however are not the great themselves ranking last in or close to it in defensive categories.

Team reports: It is important to try and get into the psyche of the players and the teams as they prepare for the game, for that I look at fan sites and local newspapers and try to sift through the mediocre stuff and find the meat if there is any. The first thing that I found is the obvious the Bills are at home on a Monday night for the first time in a long time. When it comes to the starting QB you get the usual rhetoric from the coach: “Trent’s the guy playing this week, and we hope he does an unbelievable job and he gives us a chance to win the game,” said Bills coach Dick Jauron. “And then we’ll see what happens.” The truth of the matter is that this is Edwards team now and he played well against the Jets, if he does it again tonight the job will be his all year. The one great thing is that he is starting to get his players to believe in him. “Trent Edwards did a good job of dishing the ball out and finding the open guy,” said receiver Roscoe Parrish. “That’s something he needs to continue to do, have faith in getting the ball in guys’ hands. We know we’re going to have to score some points.” The game plan will be to set up the pass with running Lynch, which could work considering Williams likes to cheat on the run and running between tackles will eat the clock and have Williams biting and that will open the Dallas secondary up to slants and deep outs. In the Dallas papers there is plenty of talk about the record setting pace the team is on offensively and of course next week’s game against the Patriots. I am not sold on them looking past this game tonight, but I don’t see them giving the Bills too much respect either.

Trends: When looking at trends I like to find trends that are evident to the games of late and that matter in tonight’s meeting. Dallas is 2-12 ATS off a win by 28+ points and Buffalo is 24-7 ATS off a win by 3 points or less. The Bills are 9-3 ATS as home dogs in non conference play. The Cowboys are 5-15 ATS away vs the AFC and cold be looking ahead to this Patriot game. Super Trends: When ANY NFL Team played as a Home team - Before a conference game - During the month of October - During Week 4 to 8 - Scored 14 - 21 POINTS FOR in their last game - Coming off a 1 ATS win they are 22-11-1 ATS (Buffalo)When ANY NFL Team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Playing on Monday - Coming off a win - Coming off a Win over NFC West opponent they are 8-15 ATS (Dallas)

Overall: The Bills always play tough at home which was proven when they took the Broncos to the last second in week one and playing on Monday night will make this game even bigger. What everyone fails to notice because they score so many touch downs is that the Cowboys have a rookie kicker and he could feel the heat in National TV if he has to make a big kick. The home crowd will help and the Boys defense will have to work hard to keep Lynch at bay leaving the passing lanes open, and look for a special teams play by the Bills. If you have not figured it out by now I am on the home team.Total: I am not going to play the total tonight but if I did it would be the under. The Bills will look to keep the cowboys off the field as much as possible and control the clock and look at the weather. Multiple weather stations are forecasting a 30 percent chance of precipitation with a possibility of thunderstorms in the Buffalo area.

Buffalo +10.5 +100