Saturday, October 27, 2007

Week 8 Angles


New England (7-0 SU&ATS) crushed Miami last week for its seventh straight victory, both straight up and against the spread. The Patriots thus became the ninth team in the last 10 years to cash as many as seven games in a row. It doesn't require a long memory to recall the last two teams to accomplish this relatively rare feat: Buffalo and Tennessee rewarded its loyal supporters seven straight times last year.
Should New England get the money this Sunday when it hosts Washington (3-3, 3-2-1) , it would become the third team in the past 10 seasons to get the green in eight straight games, joining Pittsburgh and San Diego, who both turned the trick in 2004. The Philadelphia Eagles have the longest regular-season spread run of late, getting the cheddar in nine straight games in 2004.
The Patriots have 'covered' their last eight games in October and they are 11-1 ATS off a double-digit division win.
New England has been on the high side in six of seven games while averaging 39.9 points. However, the potent Pats have been on the low side in 23 of 33 games following a two-game road trip. They have also slipped 'under' in 12 of 16 when hosting an NFC team and in 17 of 23 off a SU road win versus a division foe.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 8 menu appear below.



BROWNS (3-3, 4-2) at RAMS (0-7 SU&ATS)
St. Louis has lost and failed in its first seven tries and is 0-5 as dogs this year and 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home. However, there are signs that skid could end. The Rams are 20-6 ATS at home off a division game and they have cashed at a 22-12-1 clip when hosting AFC teams. Conversely, Cleveland is 5-9-1 ATS on the road of late against NFC foes and 5-13-1 ATS coming off a SU win. The Browns have 'covered' 17 of 21 on the road when the total was 40 or more. Cleveland has zipped 'over' at a 5-0 clip while St. Louis has knuckled 'under' in five of six tries. The Browns have been on the low side in 16 of 19 when playing in domed stadiums and in 18 of 26 against a non-division opponent. The Rams have eclipsed the 'total' in 15 of 23 as non-conference dogs.


LIONS (4-2, 3-2-1) at BEARS (3-4, 2-5)
Chicago looks for revenge after losing the initial series meeting at Ford Field, 37-27. The series short-ender has cashed at an 11-4-1 clip. Detroit is 17-37 ATS on the road off a win and it is 1-8 as road pups of seven points or less. The Bears are 11-6-2 ATS versus division opponents. They have zipped 'over' in 15 of 19 as favorites and 11 of 13 as home chalk. The Lions have ducked 'under' in 15 of 23 as division road dogs.


COLTS (6-0, 4-1-1) at PANTHERS (4-2 SU&ATS)
Indianapolis must avoid looking ahead to next week's titanic tussle with New England. The Colts are 17-5-1 ATS on the road outside their division. They have also 'covered' 10 of 13 off a division road contest. Carolina is just 2-9-1 in its last dozen home games. However, the Panthers have 'covered' at a torrid 24-5-1 clip as underdogs. The defending champs have been on the high side at a 20-11-1 pace on the road when facing a non-division foe. Carolina has headed in the opposite direction in 13 of 17 after winning by 14 points or more and in 18 of 27 after yielding 10 points or less.


GIANTS (5-2 SU&ATS) versus DOLPHINS (0-7, 1-4-2) at London
The New York Giants have cashed five straight this year and seven straight in October. They are also 12-6 ATS prior to their bye week. Miami is 1-11 ATS during the first half of the past two seasons and it is 0-6 ATS after facing New England. The winless Dolphins have 'covered' nine of 11 as dogs of more than six points and at a 7-3-1 clip as short-enders when facing an NFC foe. New York has zipped 'over' in 14 of 21 games as a non-conference favorite. Miami has ducked 'under' in seven of nine as double-digit dogs.


RAIDERS (2-4 SU&ATS) at TITANS (4-2 SU&ATS)
Oakland is 19-10 as road dogs after two SU losses. However, the Raiders are 5-15 ATS after losing by three points or less and 2-14-1 ATS after losing SU as favorites. Tennessee has failed to get the cash in 20 of 28 as favorites of 3 1/2 to seven points. The Titans are also 2-9-1 ATS after winning by three points or less and 2-11 ATS after scoring 28 points or more. Oakland has trickled 'under' in 17 of 19 on the road when facing teams with a winning record and in 13 of 15 on the highway after the first month of the season. Tennessee has topped the 'total' at a 20-8-1 clip at LP Field.


EAGLES (2-4 SU&ATS) at VIKINGS (2-4, 2-2-2)
Philadelphia is 25-12 ATS against NFC-North opposition and 14-9 ATS on the road as favorites against conference opponents. The Eagles have also cashed at a 21-13-1 clip when playing under domes. Minnesota has cashed 20 of 29 as home pups. The Vikings have dipped 'under' in 23 of 32 on the heels of a two-game trip. Philadelphia has been on the low side in 10 of 13 as a non-division road favorite.


STEELERS (4-2 SU&ATS) at BENGALS (2-4, 2-3-1)
Pittsburgh has won 13 of its last 16 at Cincinnati (12-4 ATS). The Steelers are also 18-6-2 ATS versus division foes on the road. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS at home in October off a SU win. They have cashed 15 of 18 when playing their second division game at Paul Brown Stadium. The home team has failed to cash in nine of the past 10 series showdowns. Pittsburgh has slipped 'under' in 13 of 17 on the road after losing SU as favorites. Cincinnati has topped the 'total' in 25 of 36 as division home dogs.


BILLS (2-4, 4-2) at JETS (1-6, 1-5-1)
Buffalo has 'covered' three straight and 11 of its last 15, though it has come up short in its last three on the road. The Bills are 4-15 ATS away from home after cashing three of four. They have 'covered' six of eight division road tests. The New York Jets have cashed 10 of 15 series meetings at The Meadowlands and five of seven clashes overall. The Jets are 4-13-1 ATS after allowing 28 points or more. Four of the last five series encounters have zipped 'over.' New York has eclipsed the number in eight of nine at home when it was between 35 1/2 and 38.


TEXANS (3-4, 2-4-1) at CHARGERS (3-3 SU&ATS)
Houston is 16-6 ATS after losing by 10 points or less and 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Texans are 12-21-1 ATS when facing a non-division foe and just 4-13 as non-division dogs of three points or more. San Diego is 13-6 ATS off a double-digit division win. The SU winner is 8-0 ATS when Houston faces an AFC-West opponent. The Texans have gone 'under' in 18 of 29 as road dogs.


JAGUARS (4-2, 3-3) at TAMPA BAY (4-3 SU&ATS)
Jacksonville is 22-10-1 outside its division while Tampa Bay is 31-16-2 at home against non-division opponents. The Bucs have been on the low side at a 36-13-1 pace at home when facing teams outside their division.


SAINTS (2-4, 1-5) at 49ERS (2-4, 2-3-1)
New Orleans has lost eight of its last 10 at San Francisco, but cashed seven of 10. The Saints are 16-5 ATS off a home win versus a division rival. The 49ers are 2-7 ATS in Game 8. Seven of the past 10 series scrapes at San Francisco have been on the high side.


PACKERS (4-2 SU&ATS) at BRONCOS (1-5 SU&ATS)
Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS versus AFC foes. Denver has cashed nine of 12 after scoring 28 points or more. The Broncos are 5-15 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 1-9 ATS at home before playing back-to-back road games. They have zipped 'over' in 24 of 36 as favorites against NFC opposition and at a 20-5-1 clip as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or less.

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