Monday Night Football

Jacksonville +3

The home dog angle on Monday night is something I covet (19-8-2 ATS,L29 70.3%) but you have to be careful on the team. Last week the Falcons showed that it doesn’t always matter if you are the home team. This week it will matter. The Jacksonville M.O. has been clearly identified. The Jaguars will run the ball behind running backs Fred Taylor and electric Maurice Jones-Drew. The duo is averaging 154 yards a game on the ground against defenses that have allowed 30 yards less per game. The 4.8 yards per carry is among the best in the league against a much improved Indianapolis run defense. David Garrard is playing with the calm of a quarterback, who is not filling in for someone else, rather as one who earned the job and is in control of the situation. The Colts want revenge but defense wins ballgames and the Jags have a superb defense and out weighs the Colts offensive line. I do not think it will be a blowout and thin it will be close so I will take the points.

Trends:
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games21-17 over the last 10 seasons. ( 55.3% 0.0 units )0-3 this year. ( 0.0% 0.0 units )

When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as a Home team - After a conference game - Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 15-3-1ATS

When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a win on grass they are 24-15-4ATS

When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as Home team as a Underdog - Playing on grass surface - Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 7-4-1 ATS