Saturday, December 15, 2007

Saturday Night NFL

NFL Tonight

Sorry so late about getting this one out, but I do like it.

Game:

Bengals/ 49ers Over 42
SF +8

First Half:
SF +5
Over 21.5 -105

SF ML +300

This game looks ugly on paper but I think we are in for a good game tonight. Sure both teams have lost plenty of ball games and they don’t have anything to play for so what’s so good about it? The defenses are both very suspect and this will open up the scoring and that always makes for a good game. The Shaun Hill era begins tonight for the 49ers. The Bengals are nothing special on defense, ranking 26th overall, 22nd against the run and 25th against the pass. The 49ers will probably have Hill throw safe, high-percentage passes. Look for tight end Delanie Walker to have a big day based on his history with Hill in the preseason and scout offense. "It's been looking good with Shaun at quarterback," Walker said. "The game plan is very simple. We're going to do what we did last week - execute underneath passes and get the ball out as quickly as possible. I'm going to be a key factor again this week. I do run a lot of underneath routes. It'll be there if he looks for it."
I have plenty of reasons for backing the home niners but my main one is this. The Benglas not only have a horrible defense but they have only one once on the road this year and that is not a good recipe to back the chalk. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS off an Under and San Francisco is 10-3 ATS after scoring 9 or less points. The 49ers have motivation to win this game tonight and do well on offense and with that they warrant a play tonight.

The Bengals are 4-8 ATS.
The Bengals are 1-4 ATS away.
The Bengals are 3-4 ATS as the favorite.
The Bengals are 0-2 ATS as an away favorite.

When CINCINNATI BENGALS team played as a Road team - During the month of December - Scored more than 10 points in back to back games - Coming off a win on grass they are 4-14-1 ATS

When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as a Home team - During Week 12 to 16 - Coming off a 1 under they are 9-3 ATS AND 11-1 SU!
When ANY NFL Team played as a Home team - During Week 12 to 16 - vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % they are 165-83-1 SU

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