NFL Wagering

test run

2009-02-05T15:28:00.000-08:00

Test run

Deathberries

Toxic

Fatal

Deadly

Killer

Devastating

Lethal

Superbowl Selection

2009-01-31T07:47:00.000-08:00

My superbowl selection is posted at my all-sports blog as well as some great bonuses!

http://takeagamble.wordpress.com/

Check it out and enjoy the big game!

AFC / NFC Championship Games

2009-01-18T08:56:00.000-08:00

NFC Championship

This post season has been a post season for the underdogs and its nice to get a home one for this game. The Cardinals are at home and that to me is a huge, because they have played well here all year. Here is a great stat against the Eagles.Since 1982, teams that knock off the Super Bowl champ are 0-10 straight up and 1-9 against the spread the following week! That is amazing and that just shows you how hard it is to rebound from a big win in the playoffs like that!

The Cardinals have been doing it with defense and running and the fact that no one can stop Larry Fitzgerald.

Arizona +3

The Cardinals have’covered seven of their last 10 at home and look great with the points this week!The energy and the crowd will help the Cardinals get revenge for a loss to the Eagles earlier this season.

Take the points and the Cardinals!

Arizona +3

AFC Championship

The Steelers have looked poised all year to make a run at the big game as they have played the best defense in the game. This week they face a Ravens team that they have already beaten twice with a unproven rookie at the helm in Joe Flaco.Baltimore has cashed eight of nine against conference foes and six of seven versus division opponents.

The Ravens are 9-0 ATS coming off an extremely close road win by three points or less as well. Even thought they are at home it will be asking for alot to have a team beat another team for the third time in the season.The Steelers have come up short in four of their last five ATS in conference championship games.Pittsburgh has also dropped nine straight spread decisions after scoring 35 points or more in its last game.Baltimore has won 11 of its past 13 games and is 7-3 on the road, including 2-0 in the postseason. This will be a tough game that will go down to the wire with Baltimore having a real shot of pulling off what seems like the impossible upset. Take the Ravens plus the points as meetings between these two teams always end up close!

Ravens +6

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AFC Wild card Ravens vs Dolphins

2009-01-04T07:39:00.000-08:00

These two teams have shocked the world by even making it this far.

The Ravens had to do it with a young offensive unit and rookie coach behind an aging defense.

For the Dolphins they had to come out of the cellar with the the help of a new coach and a new sheriff in town in Bill Parcells.

CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST LINE:

One thing that we noticed yesterday is that the home teams will be playing tough and we get our second rookie signal caller on the road. Miami comes into the game with revenge for losing in week seven. When it comes to turnovers this game gets interesting. Baltimore has caused the most in the league while the Dolphins are the best at holding on the the ball. So in essence something has to give.

The Ravens covered five of last six road games, but are just 1-8 ATS as road chalk. Teams like Miami that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years are 18-8 ATS in the Wild Card round and they are 18-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points.

Note that Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco did not start or end the regular season particularly well. Through five games, he had just one TD against seven INT’s and 2:3 ratio over the final four games. With Matt Ryan’s loss yesterday, rookie QB’s dropped to 2-7 all-time in the first-time playoff starts.

Home Underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95 as mentioned yesterday and Miami has the talent to keep this close. As I mentioned Miami is very good at holding on to the ball one of the best in the league and that is good news.

Turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 119-24-3 ATS (83.2%).

The fish keep this close where the points are worth the take and don’t be surprised if they are moving on to the next round!

Miami +3.5

Saturday Wild Card Games

2009-01-03T12:31:00.001-08:00

Sign up at Bet Jamaica and get in the free $50,000 playoff contest!

Here are my plays for today!

Colts @ Chargers

The biggest news is that it was just announced that LT is a game time decision and he has a detached tendon in his groin! (Ouch!)

--So let me stop right here and say if you like the Colts then get them now because this news will make the line jump! Now back to your scheduled write up

While this is big news in the playoffs for LT to be hurting I don’t think it will matter I think he will suit up and play tonight and he may not be at 100% but Sproles has been elusive and a yard gainer when filling in.

The Colts went on a nine in a row run to win the wild card and get an invite to San Diego for this game. With that run Peyton Manning went on to secure an MVP trophy. It is interesting to note that wildcard road teams that won 11 games or more in the regular season are just 5-6 SU & 4-6-1 ATS (40%) in their first playoff game.

The Chargers had to go on an impressive run to win four straight down the stretch to include a comeback against KC and a tough road win over the Bucs. Phillip Rivers is having one of his best years of his career and is ready for this game tonight. Rivers now faces a Colts defense that’s allowed just six touchdown passes - the fewest ever by a team in a 16-game season. That unit, though, will be without linebacker and defensive captain Gary Brackett, who will miss his fifth straight game with a cracked bone in his lower right leg. With the announcement of the injury of LT, this line should go up and make the Chargers a dog of maybe even 3 or more which is good to know for Bolt backers as home underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95.

There are some other good statistical trends that back the bolts
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 24-16 ATS (60.0%)
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 27-19 ATS (58.7%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing are 25-18 ATS (58.1%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing and yield fewer rushing yards per game are 10-5 ATS (66.7%)
And some against the Colts

Road teams that allow 4.15 YPR or more are just 11-17 ATS (39.3%)
Teams that allow fewer passing yards per attempt on the season are 37-45 ATS (45.0%).

I am going with the Chargers in this game. The colts beat them once at home and will try to do it for a second time this year and the Chargers have proven that they can play the Colts tough. The Chargers are 19-8 ATS vs. conference and 6-0 ATS at home off SU win. The Chargers are 10-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. They are also 14-4 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO) good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )

I am taking the Chargers in this game. I am going to wait to game time thinking that the line will move in favor of the Colts and I will be able to steal some points in what could be a close game.

Chargers

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NFC Wild Card Game

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals 1 / 50.5

This line like all of them this weekend are interesting as home teams are either a dog or a pick’em going into today’s action. That would indicate these teams are somewhat even.

The Cardinals had a great year as Kurt Warner regained his MVP form and they showed they have the best wideouts in the game. They clinched a home game in Arizona for the first time in forever and got the state a buzz with NFL playoff fever. They then hit the skids, getting hammered at home to the Vikings and giving up New England before rebounding late in the season against Seattle, but are they too late?

The Falcons are one of the surprise teams of the year and they have the offensive rookie of the year in Matt Ryan at QB. Michael Turner has been a stud behind one of the better yet lesser known offensive lines in football. They now take their game to the road to see if they can move forward and get a win. Matt Ryan has done well in college post season but it’s another story in the NFL. Unlike the Cardinals the Falcons ride a three game winning streak headed into the playoffs.

Backing a rookie on the road is a scary proposition but its one that I am willing to do here and it’s mostly due to Michael Turner. Teams that can run the ball pounded the Cardinals and pulled away early and with Turner running well that will free up passing lanes for Ryan using play action. In the Wild Card round being at home is not always the best thing as hosts are 8-8 and 6-10 against the spread. Arizona is just 2-7 ATS as an underdog of late. The Falcons laid down in the last game and gave up chunks of yardage on defense but if you look closer you will see they have a pretty decent defense. The Falcons defense gave a flat performance in allowing the reeking Rams to gain 400 yards and are 26-6 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. There are some pretty decent trends that favor the Cardinals too but I am taking the Falcons in this game.

Atlanta -1

Week 17 picks

2008-12-28T06:33:00.000-08:00

1. Sunday December 28th Tampa Bay -13
The Raiders looked great last week in the final game at home but don’t look for a repeat performance this week. Tampa needs the win and have killed their own position down the stretch. It is also the last game for DC Monty Kiffin. Tampa Bay has lost three straight and now not only needs to beat Oakland, but also hope for Philadelphia to beat Dallas to earn a post-season berth. The Bucs are 20-12-1 ATS at home in December and 27-10 ATS after losing SU as favorites. The Raiders have come up short in 20 of their last 25 on the road during the final month of the season and dropped 17 of their last 21 finales ATS. Oakland is 0-7 ATS vs. NFC and loses big!

2. Sunday December 28th Philly -2
This is a big game for both squads as it is a must win to even have a shot at the playoffs. The Cowboys had a big chance but lost at home when the defense collapsed in the waning minutes of the game. Philadelphia is 25-8 ATS avenging a close loss by seven points or less. The Eagles are also 8-1 ATS off a division setback. Dallas has flopped in 19 of its last 26 season finales ATS. There is nothing McNabb would like more than to send T.O. home for the playoffs. A big game from McNabb and Westbrook will put Dallas to rest for the season.

3. Sunday December 28th Vikings -6.5
The Giants have nothing left to play for while the Vikings have everything in the world to play for. Minnesota wins the NFC North with a victory or a Chicago loss. The Vikings play very well at home and the Giants will look to avoid injuries. The defending champs are 12-19 as road favorites of three or more and 10-16 ATS on the road after allowing 28 points or more. The Giants should just go through the motions and this will be close if not an outright win for the Vikings.

4. Sunday December 28th Houston -2.5
The Bears won an overtime game on Monday night to stay alive in the playoffs but now have to go to Houston. The Texans were playing great ball until they ran into a buzz saw in the pathetic Oakland Raiders. The last game at home and off an embarrassment the Texans will throttle the Bears on a short week. Chicago has struggled on the road down the stretch, posing an 8-29-1 spread mark on the road in December and failing at a 2-10-2 clip in its last 14 tries. The Bears are 6-10-1 ATS on the highway against AFC opponents. Take the Texans to win big!

5. Sunday December 28th Jets -3
The Jets need this win and they need the Patriots to lose if they are going to make into the playoffs. New York has won 12 of 16 against Miami, including a 24-14 win as 2 1/2-point road favorites this year. The Jets have 'covered' at a torrid 12-3-2 clip versus the Dolphins at the Meadowlands. Miami has dropped 14 of its last 20 road finales ATS and is 10-25 ATS versus division foes the last four week of the season. Miami is a pathetic 49-72 ATS vs. the division. The Jets win after an embarrassment last week in Seattle.

6 Sunday December 28th Buffalo +6.5
Everyone is talking about how the Patriots need the Jets to win or Baltimore to lose to make the playoffs, but hold the phone. The Patriots still need to win to make sure that they even have a shot at the playoffs and as you can tell by the performance in Buffalo the bill are not done playing by a long shot. They have cashed seven of nine as home dogs off a SU win and would love to knock New England out of the playoffs after all the beatings they have taken by them this year.

7. Sunday December 28th Bengals -2.5
No one has been paying attention but the bengals are playing pretty good football. They have a solid ground game in Cedric Benson who put up some gaudy numbers last week against the Browns and the defense has been playing well overall. This week they play a bad team with a bad defense and have a shot at ending the season on a good note. The Bengals have covered 15 of 17 versus poor pass defenses - allowing seven or more yards per play - during the second half of the season. The Bengals win in easy fashion over a tired KC team.

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NFL Sunday

2008-12-21T07:01:00.000-08:00

Sunday NFL Special from WagerWeb!
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Sunday December 21st Chiefs +3.5
the Dolphins are looking towards the playoffs while the Chiefs are looking towards the draft and off a very tough loss. That won’t stop them from playing hard at home. The Chiefs are 46-15-2 as home dogs and they have won 19 of 23 (16-5-2 ATS) at home in December. On the other hand, the Dolphins are 0-8 as favorites of between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2-points and 3-10 as road chalk in December. They are also 0-9 ATS against poor passing defenses (allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or more). The Dolphins slip up against the Chiefs on the road!

Sunday December 21st Patriots -8
The pats play much better at home and welcome the Arizona Cardinals a team that does not travel well at all. Arizona has had a tough time on the road outside the NFC-West, failing to 'cover' 21 of 31, and the Cardinals are 5-21 ATS on the highway versus a non-division foe off a SU loss. New England is 21-5 ATS versus marginal winning teams (win percentage of 51-60). The Cardinals are still shell shocked after losing to the Vikings at home badly and will drop the ball against a team in a must win situation. The Patriots need to win to keep their slim hopes alive in the AFC! This play becomes more attractive if Baltimore loses on Saturday!

Sunday December 21st Philly -5.5

It’s hard to take road chalk, but even on a short week the Eagles are hot and the Redskins are not. Philadelphia will be looking to avenge a 23-17 loss to Washington as six-point home favorites. The visiting team has cashed in 19 of the past 29 series squabbles, getting the green in the last four. The Eagles are 25-8 ATS in revenge mode after a close loss by seven points or less. They have covered 21 of 31 on the road against division rivals. Hey Bill Cowher if you’re listening you can have a job next year in the capitol!

December 21st Seattle +4.5
this will be an emotional games for the Seahawks as they look to win the last home game for coach Mike Holmgren and his old quarterback will be there to try and make sure he fails. The New York Jets are 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS away versus non-division opponents. Even though the birds have had a bad year this is still one of the toughest places to play!

Take the Seahawks to get the upset!

Sunday December 21st 49ers -5
The Rams have given up after a tough loss last week and Mike Singletary has the niners playing for his job! San Francisco spanked St. Louis as six-point home favorites in the first meeting of the season, 35-16. The 49ers have won 24 of 36 against the Rams (25-10-1 ATS) and they are 13-4-2 ATS at St. Louis. The SU winner is 23-3-1 ATS in this NFC-West rivalry. The Rams have floundered at a 19-5-1 pace as division home dogs and they are 9-22 ATS against division foes overall. San Francisco is 37-19 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back road games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS 2nd half of season will win big on Sunday!

Saturday Night NFL

2008-12-19T12:05:00.000-08:00

It is great to have the NFL on Saturday Night!

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Baltimore /Dallas under 39

This game is going to be one full of defense and running. The Ravens live to play against prime time performers so you know they will be geared up for a game against T.O. and company on prime time! The Cowboys have been playing great football and its been all about the defense to get them there. Prime time games have had a tough time staying under, but not this one.

Monday Night Football

2008-12-15T16:50:00.000-08:00

Under 39.5 Cleveland / Philly

Cleveland is fighting for the coaches life just not sure if anyone wants him to stay. Regardless the offense is in trouble! I look for a low scoring game with Philly winning a closer than expected game!

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Sunday Pix

2008-12-14T06:19:00.001-08:00

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Sunday December 14th Oakland +7
wow this is a tough take for anyone with as bad as the Raiders have looked, but they are at home and they are underdogs and they have beaten the Jets in this same spot. They also have extra days to prepare for this game. The Patriots are severely banged up for this game and they will have spent an entire week on the west coast. They did this before this year and won the first game and lost the second against an AFC west team. The Patriots have dropped 18 of 24 ATS versus terrible teams - win percentage of less than 25 percent - during the second half of the season.

Sunday December 14th Packers -1
these two teams are having very disappointing seasons after they had huge off-season expectations. Green bay is the better team as many of the Jacksonville players have quit on the coach and each other. Fred Taylor came out and almost said it a couple of weeks ago and it is showing in how they play. Green Bay is 9-0 ATS off non-conference game
and Jacksonville is 0-6 ATS in home games. The Packers win as a road favorite.
Sunday December 14th Houston +3
this is our favorite spot to back a team we like and we are at it again with the Texans. The theory is to play a team coming home as an underdog off a win outright as an underdog. It helps that we have the Titans playing off a clinching game and the Texans have revenge. Houston has won three straight for the first time in franchise history and also covered four in a row for the first time. Houston is 9-1 ATS at home avenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 points or more. The Texans impress with yet another victory!

Sunday December 14th Buffalo +7.5
The Bills are done for the season not even coming close to winning up in Toronto against the fish. We think you will see a different Buffalo team this week. This is another perfect fade spot we like to take when you get a team that is playing as badly as the Jets and they are a favorite of at least a TD. No team should ever be backed on a losing streak when giving points. The Bills would love to play spoiler and if they want to try and make a run they need this game the most! Buffalo has covered eight of 12 division tests on the road and could pull the upset here!

Sunday December 14th Arizona -3
the cardinals are not happy with a playoff spot, they want a game in Arizona and will push hard to get the win here. With Jackson at the helm for Minnesota they had to rally against Detroit. They will get blown out on the road here. Minnesota has failed to get the money in 22 of its last 26 road finales. The Vikings are 11-20-1 ATS on the road when facing a non-division foe. They have dropped five of seven spread decisions on the highway this year. Arizona has won five of six at home (4-2 ATS). The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS off a straight up win and get buried in the desert this Sunday!

Sunday December 14th Seattle -3
It is always a dangerous proposition when you take a road favorite especially if they just have two wins but we like Seattle here. The Rams have all but given up and the Seahawks are playing inspired football with it being Holmgren’s last season. It may be a little late but it will be enough to get the win here. Seattle is 8-2 ATS off BB ATS losses
and St. Louis is 3-11 ATS off division game. Seattle trashed St. Louis in the first clash of the season as nine-point home favorites, 37-13. The Seahawks are 14-6 ATS versus a division foe over the last four weeks of the season. The Rams are 6-20 ATS avenging a same season setback. Take the birds to beat the Rams!Size: 125 X 125 pixels

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Thursday Night Saints / bears

2008-12-11T15:43:00.000-08:00

Saints / Bears

Okay let's dissect this puppy---first things first its going to be cold in Chicago tonight so much so that it is being addressed by the teams as they head into the game tonight.

So let's look at the weather....

Right now..

Temperature: 32° F Feels like: 22° F--looks like it will drop to about 25 F around kick and get lower through the night. It is the Windy city so....

Wind From the West Northwest at 13 gusting to 18 mph and that is across the field so to me that may make it tough for FG's and whoever is kicking this week for the Saints.

So there we have it cold and windy got it, but if we know it so do the Bears and the Saints and I am sure they will dress warm so let's move along....

Both of these teams need this game so the motivation is there---Bears in a dead heat in the division and the Saints clinging on to a Wild Card spot....

The Saints have one just once outside the state of Louisiana and are even ATS and the Bears are even ATS at home so that's an even pull, so what about the pure numbers?

When it comes to offense and passing the Saints are at the top of the heap in the league, which is hard to ignore but to me that means the Bears can read the papers too. When it comes to total defense they drop to 21st in the league but the Bears are just 17th so not too great there either. The thing that should worry Bear backers is that they are 28th against the pass, so how do you back the Bears with that information? Well the Bears are 6th against the rush which will make the Saints one dimensional (like they are not already) and they can put extra focus on the pass--the Saints meanwhile struggle against the run so if the Bears want to win this they may want to get into a game of keep away and hit the ground with Forte.

The wind will also help defend the pass and when the Saints try to mix it up on the ground they will run into the strength of the Bears. Stopping the run maybe more important than stopping the pass. When New Orleans runs the ball 30 or more times during the tenure of coach Sean Payton, they are 14-0.

Chicago wants to take away the run (the Bears are No.6 in the NFL, yielding 91.2 yards per game) and put consistent pressure on Brees. Stopping the runs on early downs can get the Saints gunslinger in third-and-longs, where turnovers are more likely to happen.

Saints backers will talk about how well Brees has played against Chicago but the rarely talk about the results. The Saints have been outscored 72-39 in their last two visits to the Windy City and in those two losses they threw 109 passes and ran just 32 times.

How about the intangibles? The Bears field is bad and heard to play on literally....

MY Plays:

okay let's quit babbling and get to playing ball

UNDER 46

I am going to wait and see if I can't get the hook or even 47----

Bears -3 +100

Bucs vs Panthers MNF

2008-12-08T15:28:00.000-08:00

Bucs +3

This game should be a close defensive battle. With two evenly matched teams playing in what amounts to a huge game the points should always be taken!This week’s Monday Night system is to play on any division team that won by three or less points last week. As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay won 23-20 last Sunday, making them the qualifying team for a system that is 17-5 ATS, 77.2 percent.

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Sunday December 7th

2008-12-07T06:38:00.000-08:00

Sunday December 7th Colts -13.5
double digit chalk is always a tough call, but this is a play that has to be made. The Colts are at home and need to win and get the offense back on track after a tough performance against the subpar Browns. This is the perfect team to do it against since the Bengals have thrown in the towel. Take the Colts to finally reward backers at home with a big win. The Bengals are 1-8 ATS vs the conference and that will go to 1-9.

December 7th Eagles +8
going against the Giants has been tough this year, but this is a great spot. Mcnabb is back and ready to prove himself against a worthy opponent and has extra days to prepare. The Eagles have cashed 25 of 33 avenging a loss by seven points or less. The dog is 5-1 in the past six series showdowns. Philadelphia is 20-11 on the road against division rivals and 8-2 as road dogs. The Plaxico issue gets too much for the Giants to bare.

Sunday December 7th Niners +4
last week in this article we declared the niners gave up, boy were we wrong. They went coast to coast to beat the Bills and now come home to face the Jets. The Jets don’t travel well and they lost on the road this year to lowly Oakland. The New York Jets are 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS on the road versus non-division foes. The Jets showed plenty of weaknesses in the game against the Broncos and with travel I am not sold that they will be able to get them fixed in time, thus the small line. Take the niners to get the job done.

Sunday December 7th Buffalo PK
This game is in Canada and this is huge for the NFL and Canadian fans. They pour a ton of support and money into Buffalo and will make sure they show up to support the “home” team. Miami has a track record of playing poorly in Buffalo so traveling to Canada can’t help. Buffalo is off a bad loss at home and revenge should get them ready for this game. The Dolphins are 8-18 ATS versus a division rival after a SU road win. They have also dropped 16 of their last 21 spread decisions versus AFC East foes. The frozen fish get filleted in Canada.

6. Sunday December 7th Dallas +3
this is the game that Dallas needs. It shows that they are back and they can win against top shelf teams and not the bottom feeders that they have faced of late. They get extra time to prepare while Pittsburgh is off a physical game against the Patriots. Pittsburgh has struggled at Heinz Field, failing to get the green in four of six. The Steelers have floundered in 18 of their last 22 as home favorites of 3 1/2-points or less. The Steelers are just 1-10 ATS after scoring over 30 points and the Cowboys beat the Steelers.

7. Sunday December 7th Baltimore -6
It is time to give this team credit. They are doing it with solid defense and with a rookie QB that can manage the system. Baltimore is 17-2 ATS as non-division favorites off a SU win. The Ravens have also cashed 14 of 20 as favorites versus the NFC and 32 of 45 at home against non-division foes. Those numbers are staggering! The redskins are just 2-7 ATS against the AFC and they are reeling after losing big in the division. The Ravens look toward the playoffs and win big at home!

Thursday Night Football

2008-12-03T17:19:00.000-08:00

Thursday

December 4th

Over 43.5 San Diego/ Oakland
this game is a good one for total players. The Chargers do not play defense and the Raiders have actually started to click on offense, a little. This will be a breakout game for the Chargers offensively and I look for a huge game on offense from LT and fantasy players should play him! This line is hovering right around the total but the edge goes to the over!

It's been a great season as it winds down to the end of the season, celebrate the winners and please sign up with a sponsor, so the blog can keep going and come back next year!

Sunday Nov 30th Picks!

2008-11-30T06:37:00.000-08:00

November 30th Denver +8
The broncos are off the most humiliating loss of the season as they were blown out at home against one of the worst teams in the league. The Jets on the other hand are off two huge wins against the Patriots and the undefeated Titans and they will not be able to get up for this one. Denver has cashed at a 17-8-2 pace off a SU division loss. The Broncos are also 33-20-1 as dogs. Take Denver and the points to keep this one close.

Sunday November 30th Buffalo -7
If you want to witness a team that has given up just take one look at the 49ers! They were demolished by the Cowboys and they have not fire when they hit the field. Now the 49ers hit the road for an east coast trip and that has not been good all season for any team in the NFL. Buffalo is 23-12 ATS at home off a SU and ATS win and 16-8-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more. San Francisco is 3-9 ATS after scoring 21 points or more and losing. The 49ers are 8-23-1 ATS when playing in the Eastern time zone. San Francisco is 7-16 ATS as an underdog and Buffalo is 17-5 ATS vs. NFC West. The Bills roll at home!

Sunday November 30th Redskins +3
Whenever you want to bet against the Giants this year it has been a mistake but we like to fade Big Blue here. The Giants face the Skins who they beat already once, but division revenge has been a good play of late and the Redskins need to win this if they want to prove they are a contender not a pretender. The Skins will try to play keep away from the Giants and these games in the past have been close so we will take the points here.

Sunday November 30th Bengals +7
We had the Bengals last week and they barely missed the back door cover as they were stopped at the goal line. This week they are getting too many points at home against the Ravens. Like the redskins the Bengals are at home in a divisional revenge situation as well. The ravens are a miserable 0-6 ATS in the last six as road favorites and might get caught napping here. Fitzpatrick is starting to come into his own and they keep this oe close at home.

Sunday November 30th Patriots PK
Matt Cassell is getting very comfortable in this Patriot offense and he has put up back to back 400 passing yard days in the last two weeks. Don’t expect for that to happen against the leagues best defense in the Steelers but we do think the Patriots will win the game. New England is 39-16-2 as non-division home favorites and the Patriots have cashed 16 of 21 after allowing 28 points or more. Pittsburgh is 3-11 ATS off SU win and come up short again in New England.

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Happy Thanksgiving!

2008-11-26T15:10:00.000-08:00

Happy Turkey Day everyone! Enjoy time with the family and watching the games!

1. Thursday November 27th
Eagles -3

Wait on this line as there is a very good chance you will be able to get it lower than this before kickoff. McNabb has had a tough week but against the Cardinals he should be able to rebound. The Eagles have a good track record of rebounding after bad losses. Philadelphia is 16-5 ATS after a loss by 21+ points. Arizona has failed to get the cheese in 20 of 24 on the road versus a non-division foe after a SU loss. The Cards have also dropped 23 of 33 on the highway against non-division opponents overall. Philadelphia is 15-8 ATS at home after allowing 28 points or more. Take the Eagles.

2. Thursday November 27th

Turkey teaser! Two team 6 points Titans-5 and over 38

The Titans are angry off the loss against the Jets and the poor Lions lie in wait. They jumped out to a 17 point lead against the Bucs just to see the lead disappear. This week could get even uglier against a Titans offense ready to explode. The Titans have covered 16 of 23 after losing by 14 points or more. They have cashed at a 23-11-1 clip versus NFC opponents as well. Detroit is 34-18 ATS after losing by 15 points or more. Tennessee has zipped over in 16 of 24 as non-conference favorites and in 13 of 16 after losing SU as favorites. Titans and the over in a teaser!

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Monday Night Football

2008-11-24T15:20:00.000-08:00

Saints PK

The Saints need this game and the public is loading up against them based off the big win by the Packers last week, but don't forget the Saints have the best QB in the league right now and they are finally home again where they always play well! This game has Green Bay in a great go against system.

This week’s Monday night system is to play against any road team that plays outdoors versus a home team in a dome. This system is 29-14 ATS, 67.4 percent.

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Is Mcnabb done?

2008-11-23T14:53:00.000-08:00

Mcnabb was benched today by the Eagles and it looks like this could be the end of his career in Phiily. Do you think it's time for him to go? He has had a great career and I am sure he could pick up with another team but where and does he have anything left to be effective?

McNabb, who had turned the ball over seven times in his last six quarters and was just 8-18 for 59 yards in the first half of this game, was replaced by former second-round pick Kolb with the Eagles down 10-7. The game was still in reach but they benched him. That is not good news for his future with the club.

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Sunday NFL

2008-11-23T06:58:00.000-08:00

Sunday November 23rd Patriots +1
This line may jump back and forth all week but we are on the Patriots. They are looking to get sweet revenge after the embarrassing beating they took at home the first time these two met. This is a pivotal game for the playoff run and we like the Pats experience. New England is 16-6 ATS in road games and will be ready for this! The Patriots are 25-10 avenging a same season loss. They have also covered 18 of 22 against marginal winning teams (percentage of between 51 and 60). Take the Pats to roll!

Sunday November 23rd Seattle +3.5
The Redskins are off a short week and a tough loss and the Seahawks have given time for Hassleback to get a game under his belt. The Seahawks trounced the Redskins at home last season, 35-14. Washington is 0-7 ATS on the highway avenging a blowout loss by 21 points or more. Washington is 2-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 and Seattle is 7-1 ATS off back to back losses. Look for the Seahawks to regain form and jump on the Redskins again this week!

Sunday November 23rd San Diego -2.5
The Chargers played well in the last game but came up short. This should give them some confidence coming home where they play much better. San Diego has dominated against Indianapolis, getting the cheese in 10 of 13 showdowns. The Colts are 5-20 ATS versus marginal losing teams (win percentage of 40-49). The Chargers have covered nine straight against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season. They are also 12-2 ATS against AFC-South rivals. The Chargers will see this as a must win to keep pace with Denver for the West!

Sunday November 23rd Eagles +2
We love to look for an NFL team that is off an embarrassing game. Not only was it embarrassing to tie a lousy Bengals team but then they have trouble with the press. Mcnabb says that he didn’t even know there was a tie and the fans want Reid and Mcnabb out! The way to fix this is with a win on the road at Baltimore. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS as road underdog and Baltimore is 3-11 ATS off SU loss. The Eagles regain their form and win at Baltimore!

Sunday November 23rd Detroit +9
They came up short but the Lions still put a scare in the Panthers and with Cullpepper at the helm they seem like a different team. Tampa Bay is 5-22 ATS on the road versus a non-division opponent. Detroit has cashed 12 of its last 16 against the Bucs. Those are some serious numbers that cannot be ignored. They are off a very big come from behind win in the division and may have to pull another out against the Lions on the road. The Detroit Lions are a live dog this week!

Thursday night Football

2008-11-20T14:12:00.000-08:00

Thursday November 20th

Bengals +11

I really like the Bengals in this game and the trends support it. They are off a game where they played toe to toe with the Eagles and it looks like Fitzpatrick is finding his groove. The Steelers easily beat them earlier so may be looking at this as an easy game. The Bengals have been a viable option on the road, getting the green at a 21-12-1 clip and cashing seven of their last 10 versus division foes on the highway. They are also 20-8 ATS away from home in Weeks 10-13. The Steelers are 4-7-1 when favored by 6 1/2 points or more and the home team is a dismal 2-11 ATS in this AFC North rivalry. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards back to back games. Even with injuries the Bengals make this a close one!

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Monday Night Football

2008-11-17T15:19:00.000-08:00

Buffalo -5

I like the Bills at home. The Browns are a team that quit on the field last week and that to me means that the players are no longer believers of the coach and his philosophy. To stay with the Jets and the Dolphins for that matter the Bills have to win now. They will be at home in cold conditons in front of a great crowd. I'll take the Bills.

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2008-11-16T06:18:00.000-08:00

Sunday November 16th
Broncos +5.5
The Broncos broke a skid by upsetting Cleveland on the road as dogs and they are in the dog role again against improving Atlanta. The win against the Browns give them the confidence they need to win again this week. The Falcons are 1-9 ATS versus very good offensive teams - averaging more than 5.65 yards per play. They have also failed to get the green in 11 of 12 off a double-digit home win. The Broncos are 11-1 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards and put together another solid performance against the Falcons.

Sunday November 16th
Jaguars +3
The Titans are on their way to the best season ever and they have been winning in every scenario that they have been confronted with. So why go against them this week? The Jaguars play the same smash mouth football that the Titans do. The Jaguars have covered seven straight following a two-game road trip. The home team is 11-7 SU and ATS in the last 18 encounters. The Jaguars have revenge and are in an excellent spot as home divisional dogs. Take the Jaguars to get revenge and break the winning streak of the Titans!

Sunday November 16th
Baltimore +6.5
The Giants have looked great this year but fading them in a short week is the way to go this week. Baltimore has won and covered four straight while averaging 33.5 points per game. The Ravens are quietly having a great season and they are doing it by playing sound defense and smart football. This week they can make a statement by playing well against the Giants. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS after scoring 40+ points and the NY Giants are 0-3 ATS vs. Baltimore. The Ravens are an amazing15-4 ATS after winning SU as dogs and they will give the champs a fight to the finish!

Sunday November 16th
Tampa Bay -3.5
The Buccaneers will face a formidable foe in the Vikings this week. The Vikings will try to get fired up after a huge win against the Packers at home but don’t look for it to happen. Tampa has been winning with defense and they will load up to stop Adrian Peterson. Tampa Bay has cashed at a 38-18-3 rate at home versus non-division opponents and Tampa Bay is 16-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Tampa Bay will show up and play well and defeat Minnesota handedly at home!

Sunday November 16th
Dallas -1.5
The Cowboys finally get every weapon back in the arsenal to include quarterback Tony Romo. The Cowboys have to win if they want to prove they are the team everyone thought they were in the preseason. Dallas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 35+ points and Washington is 1-8 ATS off DD loss as favorite. The straight up winner in this fierce rivalry has cashed at a torrid 26-4-1 clip. This will be a huge win for the Cowboys as they get back into the playoff hunt with a big road win over a division rival!

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2008-11-13T03:30:00.000-08:00

UNDER 41.5 Jets /Pats

The mind games have already started for these two clubs as the jets announced that they signed ex Patriot Ty Law this week and they may start him this week. Since these teams and these coaches know each other so well you can expect a chess match between these two that comes down to a battle of field goals. The Jets have been on the low side in 20 of 26 after three or more consecutive wins. New England has ducked under in 16 of its last 22 as division home favorites. This one stays well below the 41.5 on Thursday.

Monday Night Football

2008-11-10T13:55:00.000-08:00

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL!

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Arizona / SF Over 47.5

This game will be a shootout! Jump on it now!!

Week 10 in the NFL

2008-11-09T07:14:00.001-08:00

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Here is my NFL selections for today!

Sunday November 9th Bears +3
Betting against the Titans has been a mistake for bettors all year long as they have been magnificent but this is a good spot to fade them in. They were off a short week and had to get up against Green Bay and will be on the road again this year against a defense that can play the exact type of ball that they do. Grossman has something to prove with all of the skepticism he has had this week and in a control type offense he can do it. The Bears have cashed 18 of 24 versus AFC teams in the Windy City and they are 6-0 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by six-plus PPG. The Packers game plan gave the Bears something to work with.

Sunday November 9th Philly -3
The Giants have looked very impressive this year and look like they should roll right into the playoffs and have a serious shot at winning the whole thing again! Philly on the other hand has been inconsistent but lately and very quietly have made some noise and are winning very nicely albeit against weaker opponents. This is the game they need to win to show they can play in the East with the other powerhouses. Philadelphia has won and covered three of four at home this season while allowing just 11.5 PPG. The fact that they are favorites here should tell you something. The odds makers know this is the game the Eagles want to win and they will!

Sunday November 9th St. Louis +9
The jets are in a tough spot here and it kills plenty of great NFL teams every year. The dreaded divisional sandwich. They are off a huge win against Buffalo on the road and after this speed bump against the Rams they have a huge game on national television against the Patriots. This is way too many points for the Jets against the Rams. Steven Jackson should be ready to play for this one and will make this close and don’t be surprised to see the upset in this game! Even without Jackson the Rams will keep this close!

Sunday November 9th Colts +3
The Colts are in must win mode and they did a great job against the Patriots. The Steelers defense has looked outstanding but now get a short week to get ready for the Colts, with injury issues at QB you will get either a sub par Ben or Leftwich. The Colts have all the key players left and this is the game that they want and they need to stay in the playoff hunt! Indianapolis is 19-6 SU and 15-9 ATS in its last 25 outings in November. Pittsburgh has come up short in eight of its last 11 in November. The Colts are 8-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses-allowing three yards per rush or less. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS off BB ATS win and will get the win on the road in an impressive game.

Monday night Football

2008-11-03T14:32:00.001-08:00

Monday November 3rd

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Pittsburgh / Washington Over 36.5
The Monday night games have been great to watch and another staple this year is that the Monday night games have always found away to go over the total. This game should be no different. Pittsburgh has a great defense but Washington plays a type of offense that can score against the Steelers. The Steelers will look to go to a faster paced offense and will want to prove they can beat the NFC East after getting dumped by the Giants. Look for scores by the defense and the special teams as this one keeps up the trend of Monday night games going over the total.

Monday NIght Football! Colts Vs Titans

2008-10-27T03:43:00.000-07:00

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Monday October 27th Colts +4
The titans have been winning with a solid running game and a quality defense and this week that defense will be put to the test against a Colts team that is off an embarrassing loss. The Colts need to win this game and will give the Titans the first loss of the year. The titans have not really played any tough teams up until this game. The titans are just 10-22 ATS as home favorites between 3.5 and 7 points. The Titans finally get a true test and fail as the Colts keep hopes alive of winning the division. The last four series encounters have been decided by a grand total of 12 points and Indianapolis has won eight of nine versus the Titans. Indianapolis has thrived against top-level opposition (win percentage of 75 or more), cashing eight straight. The Colts win on Monday Night!

NFL Picks Oct 26th

2008-10-26T08:03:00.000-07:00

1. Sunday October 26th San Diego / Saints Over 47 (London)
I know Reggie Bush won’t be in the lineup for the Saints when they got o London but the Saints and the Chargers can still give the fans what they want and that is a high scoring game. Neither team has played impressive on defense but on offense they know how to score. San Diego has been on the high side in 23 of 31 as non-conference favorites and the Saints are 5-1 over off back to back unders. This is a high scoring giving the fans in London some fireworks!

2.

Sunday October 26th Miami +1
Every week we find a stinky line that sticks out and take advantage of it. Our stinky lines have done well as last week it was the Packers over the Colts, and the week before that the Falcons over the Bears. This week it’s the Dolphins and it helps that we get a home divisional dog in this game. The Bills have lost eight of their last 13 at Dolphins Stadium and the Bills are only 3-9-1 as division favorites on the highway. The Dolphins unleash a offense that Bills will have trouble keeping up with. The small dog bites back at home this week, take Miami!

3. Sunday October 26th Pittsburgh -3
Two of the best teams match up in what is easily the best game of the week. The edge this week goes to the Steelers as they have one of the best fan basses in the league and that will lead to a great home field advantage. The Steelers have also played the toughest schedule in the league and will be ready for this one. They know how to play against good teams as evident by this stat. Pittsburgh is 27-9 ATS versus top-level teams (win percentage of 75 of more). The Steelers pull off a huge win at home and defeat the defending champions showing the world they are ready to compete for the crown this year!

4. Monday October 27th Colts +4
The titans have been winning with a solid running game and a quality defense and this week that defense will be put to the test against a Colts team that is off an embarrassing loss. The Colts need to win this game and will give the Titans the first loss of the year. The titans have not really played any tough teams up until this game. The titans are just 10-22 ATS as home favorites between 3.5 and 7 points. The Titans finally get a true test and fail as the Colts keep hopes alive of winning the division. The last four series encounters have been decided by a grand total of 12 points and Indianapolis has won eight of nine versus the Titans. Indianapolis has thrived against top-level opposition (win percentage of 75 or more), cashing eight straight. The Colts win on Monday Night!

5. Sunday October 26th Browns +7
The Browns may not be winning all games but it’s not for lack of effort. After whipping the defending champions they came back to the play the Skins to the wire after it looked like they were going to get blown out. Cleveland has covered 10 straight after playing its last game on the road. The Browns are also 14-3 ATS on grass and 6-0 ATS off a road loss. Jacksonville never seems to put a complete game together and that leaves the door wide open for the Browns to steal a big game on the road. Take the Browns.

6. Sunday October 26th Raiders +7
We are taking a chance on my second road seven point dog of the week. In fact this is the second week in a row the Raiders make the cut as we had them last week to beat the Packers. Flaco has looked good for the Ravens but enough to warrant them big home favorites against anyone in the NFL? I don’t think so. The Raiders are adjusting under the new head coach and they are not making as many mistakes as they have in the past. This line is set off last years Raiders team not this year. This one stays close thanks to the long range kicking from the Raiders.

7. Sunday October 26th Patriots -7
The Patriots are off a short week but its time for the Rams to revert back to normal form. Jackson is beat up after last game and Cassell has finally begun to grasp the offense. New England has prospered against the NFC-West, cashing 11 straight. The Patriots are 38-14-2 as non-division home favorites while St. Louis is 12-29-2 ATS on the road outside the NFC-West. The Rams are 2-13 as dogs off a double-digit spread win versus a non-division foe. The Patriots roll again this week for the big win!

NFL Big Week! Week Seven!

2008-10-19T05:56:00.000-07:00

1. Sunday October 19th Oakland +3
The Jets win over the hapless Bengals assured them that they can still have a shot at the title if they keep beating up bad teams along the way. The problem is a trip to the west coast could be exactly what they need to fall down. The raiders need a win for the interim head coach and have some raw talent that could vault them into victory lane. The New York Jets are 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS on the road when facing a non-division opponent. The Raiders may not be the best home dog in the league but they have enough talent where they can win here.

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2. Sunday October 19th Steelers -9.5
Betting against a home divisional dog is a big no-no in our book unless it’s the Bengals. With Palmer out again this week the Bengal players have been accused of playing with no effort thinking the season can’t be saved. The Steelers on the other hand are playing great football and after a week of rest they will be eager to finally have a game against a weak opponent. Pittsburgh has won and cashed 12 of 15 at Cincinnati and the road team is 20-9 ATS in the last 29 encounters. The Steelers are 19-7-2 ATS when facing a division foe on the highway. The struggling Bengals are 7-18 as home dogs off a road game. The Steelers stomp the Bengals.

3. Sunday October 19th Chargers / Bills over 44.5
If the Chargers have shown anything this week it is that they can score points but the defense has been inconsistent. San Diego has eclipsed the total in 16 of 22 road games after scoring 28 points or more. The Bills are off a bye week and will be eager to return to the field off of a bad loss. The inconsistency of the Chargers defense will show again this week and this game turns into a shootout this week when the Bolts come to Buffalo!

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4. Monday October 20th Patriots -3
The way the Patriots have played this season it will be hard to take them in any games especially against a team as talented as the Broncos, but the Pats were on an extended road trip and look forward to being at home and the doubters are out in full force that is when the Patriots play at their best. The Broncos have failed in seven of eight Monday road tests ATS off a SU loss. New England is 38-15-2 as non-division home chalk. The Patriots have cashed 14 of 19 after allowing 28 points or more and 20 of 26 off a SU loss. The Patriots win and cover under the Monday night spotlight!

5. Sunday October 19th Packers +1
The Colts band wagon seems to be full again after a blowout of the Ravens, but the Packers offer something the Ravens don’t and that is a decent offense and a home field advantage. Green Bay is 16-7 ATS the last two seasons and need a big win at home to keep driving towards the playoffs. The offense of the Packers can control the clock and keep Manning and company off of the field and allow the defense to rest when they do play. The cheese heads steal a big win in the marquee game of the week!

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6. Sunday October 19th Chiefs +9
Last week we took the Rams to play tight against the Redskins and the won outright! This week our big dog is the Chiefs. They have not always looked well but we were on them when they beat the Broncos at home as big dogs and we will back them again here. The Chiefs are 37-13-2 as home dogs and they have covered 19 of 28 after losing by 14 more. In addition, Kansas City is 21-9-2 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium after allowing 30 points or more. Tennessee is 3-9-1 ATS after winning by three or less. The titans have one eye on their game next week against the Colts and will have to wake up late to get a victory on the road!

7. Sunday October 20th Seattle / Tampa Bay Under 38.5
The smart money already hit this total this week dropping it from 41 to 38.5. Tampa Bay is 35-15 under after a win by 14+ points and has proven to have one of the best defenses in the league holding good offenses to little or no points this year. Seattle has enough trouble with injuries and Frye did not look his best last week against the Packers. When Tampa Bay played as a home team as a Favorite and Vs Conference Opponent and Coming off a Home win the under is 10-2. When Seattle played as a Road team and is playing on a grass surface with six days off and coming off a Home loss as a Favorite the under is 11-3! This is a low scoring game controlled by the kickers, take this one to stay well below the total!

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Monday Night Football

2008-10-13T09:51:00.000-07:00

Monday October 13th
Cleveland Browns +9

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Wait on this line because it will rise by Monday night and may even reach ten points. The Browns have had an extra week to prepare for this game as they are off the bye week and they get a Giants teams that will be hard pressed to have a repeat performance off last weeks results. We have another angle here and that is betting against a team that gets a superstar back in the lineup for the first game and this week the Giants welcome Plaxico back to the fold. The New York Giants have flopped in five of its last seven as road favorites when playing on Monday night and may get surprised on Monday night!

Sunday picks

2008-10-12T09:25:00.000-07:00

1. Sunday October 12th Colts -5.5

The win by the Colts last week was improbable and inspirational and they will use that win to propel them towards a good season. The Ravens let a win slip through their grasp and will have a tough time getting up for a game on the road. Baltimore has failed to cash eight straight when facing teams from the AFC-South. Baltimore has lost and failed in 21 of its last 28 road games. Indianapolis is 23-14-2 ATS after scoring 28 or more points. Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in road games and Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS off BB ATS losses. Take the Colts to blow out the ravens.

2. Sunday October 12th Bengals +6

Taking the winless Bengals may be a tough road to travel but they have played tough against some of the NFL's best in the Giants and the Cowboys. The face a Jets team that has been inconsistent and although Favre has shown flashes of brilliance the Bengals can pull the upset here. Cincinnati is 21-10-1 ATS on the road and the edition of Benson will be a good one for the bengals. When the Jets team played as a Home team Vs Non Division Opponent During Week 4 to 8 and allowed 35 points or less in their last game they are a putrid 6-22-3 ATS! The Bengals pull the upset on the road and finally win!
3. Monday October 13th Cleveland +7.5
Wait on this line because it will rise by Monday night and may even reach ten points. The Browns have had an extra week to prepare for this game as they are off the bye week and they get a Giants teams that will be hard pressed to have a repeat performance off last weeks results. We have another angle here and that is betting against a team that gets a superstar back in the lineup for the first game and this week the Giants welcome Plaxico back to the fold. The New York Giants have flopped in five of its last seven as road favorites when playing on Monday night and may get surprised on Monday night!
4. Sunday October 12th Falcons +1
Are you sold on the Falcons yet? You should be. With the addition of Turner in the backfield and Ryan at QB the falcons look impressive on the season as they took down Green Bay in the last game at Lambeau field. One of our favorite angles to take is betting on a home dog after they won outright on the road the week prior. The confidence of the road win carries over to the home game and the result is another impressive performance and another win for Atlanta! When the bears played as a Road team and are Vs Non Division Opponent and Allowed 4 - 7 against in their last game they are 2-10 ATS. Take the Falcons to get the win!

5. Sunday October 12th AFC SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH: San Diego -6The Chargers got caught in a trip to the East Coast and fell to the rising Dolphins. The Patriots are in a similar situation and will be on the west coast for this entire week after playing the niners. The Cardinals did this when playing Washington and New York in back to back games and it ended with a thumping loss. Look for the same beating for the Patriots. The chargers are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 home games 13-4-2 ATS off a SU loss. The Chargers offense gets on track and has big results.

6. Sunday October 12th
Houston -3
After a huge heartbreaker to the Colts that Texans look to rebound and get the first win of the season. This line has to be a bit stinky, after all the Dolphins are off back to back wins against two of the best in the AFC in the Chargers and the Patriots and they are dogs to a team with no wins? That's because the Dolphins will be in letdown mode here. Miami is 12-28 ATS off a SU win as underdog and Houston is 26-12 ATS off BB SU losses. Houston has cashed 17 of 27 after losing by 10 points or more and will get the win in surprisingly impressive fashion!

7. Sunday October 12th St. Louis +13.5
The Redskins have just had two huge wins against NFC East rivals and on the road nonetheless so you can't blame them for not being so excited this week for the game against the lowly Rams. The Rams are off a bye week and got a new coach in the meantime. Haslett will restore team in the Rams locker room and proved it by putting Bulger in the starting lineup and that will make the Rams offense happy. The Redskins have been money burners as double-digit home favorites, coming up short in 13 of 18. They have also dropped 14 of 18 spread decisions off a SU dog win.

Week 5 NFL

2008-10-05T07:55:00.000-07:00

1. Sunday October 5th Houston +3
We have had the pulse of the Houston Texans this year taking them at the right time like last week against Jacksonville. For anyone that is not sold on the Colts having a rough year they are not watching closely and the Texans always play well against the Colts. Taking them as a home division dog is worth a look here. The Colts are 3-10-1 ATS after losing by three points or less. The Texans are 6-2 ATS after losing by three or less and they have also cashed 10 of their last 15 at home versus a division opponent. The Texans played tough against the Jags and will here too.
2. Sunday October 5th Lions +3.5
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The Bears have proven one thing this year and that is they are inconsistent. They play well and beat some good teams in the Colts and the Eagles and then fall flat and the defense looks old blowing leads. Now they face one of the worst teams in the league and will fall flat again. Millen was fired and it will sound a warning shot that no one is safe inspiring them to play better. When Detroit team played as Home team as a Underdog and are playing in dome surface and coming off a under they are 18-10-1 ATS. The Super Seven gets another home divisional dog.

3. Monday October 6th Vikings / Saints Over 47
Monday night football has been a scoring machine this year as the over has cashed on a consistent basis. This week the Saints and the Vikings go at it and you can expect from fireworks. The saints have a high powered offense that will score and the defense can’t stop anyone and that will allow the Vikings to score as well. Minnesota is 42-19 Over Away off ATS loss and the New Orleans Saints is 8-1 over off home win! This one goes way over the total as both teams light up the scoreboard.

4. Sunday October 5th Giants -7
The Giants are proving all the doubters wrong that said they could not have a good year after the Super bowl win. Off a bye the Giants will be ready for a good performance even without Plaxico. Seattle is 0-6 ATS Away off win by 14+ points and the NY Giants are 16-7 ATS L23 games. Seattle has struggled on the road in October, failing to cover 25 of 32. The Seahawks have also come up short at a 4-12-1 clip as non-division road pups. The New York Giants are 29-12-5 ATS off a SU home win. The Giants defensive line cannot be stopped as they crush the birds!

5. Sunday October 5th Baltimore +2.5
This is our system play for the week and we yield another home dog for this one. Baltimore showed the world on Monday night that they are the real deal and will be able to bottle up the run of the Titans and force Collins to try and win this game. Here is the system: When ANY NFL Team played as Home team as an Underdog - Total is between 33 to 36.5 - Coming off vs. American Conference opponent they are 91-58-8 ATS. The ravens hand the Titans the first loss of the season behind the terrorizing defense!

6. Sunday October 5th Pittsburgh / Jacksonville Over 37
The Steelers offense is running out of running backs and the only one they have left is basically a third down back. The Steelers played to this in Monday night Football by running a no huddle offense and this allowed them to score so expect more of the same this week. The defense on the other hand will be on the field more than normal allowing some points from the jaguar’s side of the ball. When Jags team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Playing on grass surface - Coming off vs. American Conference opponent the over is 19-12. This one goes way over the number.

7. Sunday October 5th Denver -3
Tampa Bay is off an emotional win over Green bay and will be spent for this one. They run into a Bronco team off a very disappointing loss against the lowly Chiefs and looking for someone to take out on. Tampa Bay is 4-20 ATS on the road outside its division. Denver is 17-8-2 ATS off a SU loss to a division foe. The Broncos have also covered at a 17-10-1 clip after allowing 30 points or more. When Tampa played as a Road team in the month of October and they are coming off a win on grass they are 4-13-2 ATS. The Broncos roll in this one!
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Monday Night Football

2008-09-29T15:37:00.000-07:00

Baltimore +6

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Monday
September 29th
Another team that is starting to believe is the Baltimore Ravens as they have put together a nice start to the season behind a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. The visiting team is 12-5-1 in this AFC-North rivalry. The Ravens have cashed 12 of their last 18 as division road pups. The Ravens getting eight points in this game is a gift as they are playing and winning using a similar style the Steelers have made work with sound running game and great defense. Take the Ravens to keep it close in this game.

NFC Game of the Month!!

2008-09-27T16:03:00.000-07:00

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NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Tampa Bay -1 (Two Units)

Sunday September 28th
The come from behind win from the Bucs over the bears shows you just how well this team works with Griese at QB and it puts them in a situation we love. Take a home team that is home off a straight up win as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 32-17-3 ATS at home versus a non-division foe and will hand it to the Packers this Sunday in our NFC GAME OF THE MONTH!

49ers +7
Sunday September 28th
The Saints lost another close one and will look forward to coming home but the offense took another hit when they lost TE Shockey for 4-6 weeks with an injury. The 49ers are starting to do well under Martz on offense and they should be able to score plenty against a suspect Saints defense. The Saints are 5-10 as home favorites in September and 12-24-1 at home overall. The road team has cashed in 10 of the past 14 series showdowns.
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Titans -3
Sunday September 28th
The Titans have surprised a few teams as they have come out and done quite well to start the season even without Vince Young. They have done it with a solid running game and great coaching. Tennessee has won six straight dating back to last season. The Titans are 11-4 as non-conference home favorites and 23-10-1 ATS versus NFC teams overall. Minnesota is 9-18-1 as non-division road pups. The Vikings will try to keep this close with their own veteran quarterback but a banged up Peterson will prevent them from doing well today.

KC +9
Sunday September 28th
The Chiefs have established themselves as one of the worst teams in the league but at home getting points they deserve a look. The home team in this AFC-West rivalry is 11-3-1 against the spread and has won 14 of the past 16 encounters straight up. Kansas City has cashed 11 straight versus a division opponent after allowing 34 points or more. The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS at home in double revenge mode. The Chiefs showed some signs of success with the running game last week and they should be able to put up a fight in a must win game. Take the points in this one!
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Houston +8
Sunday September 28th
Taking a team that is yet to win or bring home the money ATS is a tough pull but the Jaguars have a habit of falling down after a big game. Houston has held the upper hand against Jacksonville, cashing the ticket in nine of the past dozen meetings. The Jaguars are 12-21-1 as favorites of eight points or more. The Texans are 13-6-1 ATS off two straight spread losses, and will keep this close enough to get the money with the eight points.

NFL This Week

2008-09-24T13:23:00.000-07:00

Check out this page every day leading up to the NFL kickoff and there will be new games posted!!

Washington +11
Sunday September 28th

Dallas has set themselves up to be one of the best in the league with convincing wins, but the line and popularity has grown to high for this game. The Dallas bandwagon has pushed this line into double digits when it should be around seven. The dog in this NFC-East rivalry has won 13 of the past 22 meetings SU and cashed 17 of 22. Dallas is 10-21-1 as double-digit favorites. Washington is 45-28 as dogs of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Washington always rises to the occasion to play the cowboys and they will keep it within the number in this division game.

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NFL Week 2

2008-09-11T20:43:00.000-07:00

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1. Monday September 15th
Dallas / Philly Over 47
The thing with both of these teams is that the offense for both squads looked to be in mid-season form. McNabb put up the best numbers of the week although they beat up the hapless Rams and Romo and TO were on the same page out the gate. Philadelphia has zipped 'over' in 16 of 21 as dogs and for those that want to play a side it is interesting to note that the straight up winner is 29-4-1 ATS in this series.

2. Sunday September 14th
Bengals -1
The Bengals are off a tough loss to the start the season to the Ravens in a game where the offense was silent. Carson Palmer came out publicly and said that the offense is fine and it will show this week. The titans have not been able to focus much on football with all of the drama surrounding Vince Young. The team came off a big win but they will stumble to the home team Bengals here.

3. Sunday September 14th
Saints PK
The Saints got some bad news this week when the realized Colston would be out with an injury and take away one of the Saints best weapons for 4-6 weeks. The good news is the Saints just re-load as Henderson will be fine at wide out and they will bring the backs into the set more often catching passes. It was revealed in week one the Redskins have problems at the QB spot. New Orleans has 'covered' in eight of its past 10 road openers. Washington is 7-21 ATS at home in September and the Saints are 17-5 ATS off home division win.

4. Sunday September 14th
Patriots +1.5
The biggest news of the week was the Patriots losing Brady and how they would respond. This is when the Patriots are at their best when everyone counts them out and the coaching and the veteran leadership will get them through this. Watch Randy Moss have one of his biggest games as he has already said to watch out for the Pats even without Tom Brady. New England is 70-43 ATS as an underdog and the NY Jets are 6-19 ATS at home in September. New England has won eight of its last nine road meetings with the Jets and cashed nine straight. The Patriots have also 'covered' eight of their last 11 road openers while New York has floundered at a 2-13-1 clip in its last 16 home debuts.

5. Sunday September 14th
Detroit +3
Aaron Rodgers played brilliantly and the Packers looked just fine without #4 and the Lions lost to the Falcons and most people would say the Lions are in for another beating this week. Not so fast. Kitna is a much better QB than Jackson and they get the Packers on a short week. The home team is 27-7 SU and 24-8 ATS in this heated NFC-North rivalry. Detroit lost both meetings with the Packers by double-digits in 2007. The Lions are 20-6 ATS at home in double revenge mode. The lions roar and beat the Packers.

6. Sunday September 14th
Cleveland +6
The Sunday night game should be a good one as the Browns will be at home to take on the Steelers after getting shell shocked by the Cowboys. Cleveland is 15-2 ATS after allowing 27 points or more and it has cashed 17 of its last 26 as dogs in September. The Steelers have owned this series of late but the Browns get revenge as home divisional dogs on national television! Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS after scoring 35+ points and fall flat here.

7. Monday September 15th
Houston NL
This is aplay if the Texans are dogs or favorites of four or less. The line is slow to come here for many reasons but the storm has moved the game to Monday night. The Ravens rookie QB will finally face a defense this week and the Texans will rebound off a bad loss at Pittsburgh. Baltimore has lost 20 of 27 on the road and failed to cash 21 of 27 and it was 0-8 ATS on the highway in 2007. The Ravens have come up short in their last seven ATS versus AFC-South foes and in 18 of 23 ATS after playing at home. Take the Texans to win here!

Monday Night Total

2008-09-08T15:07:00.000-07:00

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Raiders / Denver Over 41

This game will be close to over by the half. The Raiders offense will be ready to play tonight and McFadden will be able to take pressure off Russell and give him some time to throw. The Raiders and the Broncos had a horrible defensive posture in the preseason as they ranked 30th and 22nd. That should allow Cutler to get some open lanes and score early and often. Many of the people are on the Raiders and I like them do but the bigger and better play to me is on the Over in this game.

Sunday picks and last chance for $500!

2008-09-06T07:45:00.000-07:00

1.Oakland +3

Monday September 8th

Mark my words: At the end of the season the Raiders will have a better record than the Denver Broncos. The Raiders are eager to start the season and I can’t blame them with McFadden on the team and that will take some pressure of Russell at QB. That is exactly what this offense needed. Denver is 5-15 ATS as favorite and Oakland is 4-0 ATS vs. Denver. The Black Hole is back on Monday night and the Raiders win!
2. Kansas City +16.5 - Sunday September 7th Pre season makes a difference in the NFL and the Patriots have looked GOD awful in the early going and Tom Brady has yet to take a snap. Yet Patriot backers will expect them to cover a double digit spread. Tom Brady’s health is questionable and the Chiefs will surprise some teams this year. With a running game that can slow down the clock these points look nice. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 as double digit dogs.

3. San Francisco / Arizona Over 41.5 - Sunday September 7thThere are plenty of bad qualities that you can see these two teams have but it’s not on offense. Kurt Warner is back with a solid group at wide out and a running game that will open things up and get plenty of points on the board. The 49ers counter with JT O’Sullivan and he has had an awesome pre-season and has gotten his offense on board. Points will be a plenty in this game. Arizona has gone over the total in 9 of the last 12 games against the division.

4. Tampa Bay +3.5 - Sunday September 7thThe Saints and the Buccaneers will be two of the most improved teams this year and should do well. The Saints however had to play the part of nomads again as they left to practice in Indianapolis to avoid Hurricane Gustav. The Buccaneers have looked great in preseason and this will be a close well fought game and that means I want the points. The Saints are a wretched 3-11 ATS in the last 14 as home favorites.

5. Cleveland +5.5 - Sunday September 7thThe Browns were 12-4 ATS last season and many of the experts predict that they will be even better this year. The reason I am sold on this game is because we have a home dog at plus points and a offense that will put up plenty of points whether it is Anderson or Quinn. The Cowboys have an offense that can match them but it will come down to the end and I will take the points.

6. Pittsburgh -6.5 Sunday September 7thThe more things change the more they stay the same. Houston is improved but not in the league of the Steelers. This is my only chalk play for a reason because the Steelers will blow the doors off Houston. Watch the most impressive rushing attack in the league take over and the Steelers to leave Houston in the dust!

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$500 NFL Weekly Contest!

2008-09-04T18:16:00.000-07:00

All, I just finished working with the folks at HailMary and they have offered for me to put a contest in this forum and it pays $500 a week!

The thing is I need to have AT LEAST ten players a week in the contest to run. It will be a pick 'em contest with lines coming from the new sportsbook. All you have to do is sign up and you can play! Interested?

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Thursday NFL Selections

2008-09-02T13:06:00.000-07:00

Thursday NFL

Redskins +4

Washington is 28-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and always
get up for a game against the Giants. I am going to go out on a limb and say
that I don't even think the defensing champs go to the playoffs this year and
will have the hangover that usually comes with winning a championship.

Weekly NFL Contest!

I am working with the good folks to get a contest coming for the
NFL and want to see how many people would be interested. I would put lines in
the forum and players could make picks and the player with the best record would
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interest you please let me know. Replye here or email me at jtsneaks@gmail.com

Preseason Report Card

2008-09-01T07:42:00.001-07:00

Grabbed this from another site but it has good info!

Is the NFL ready for its own Tampa Bay Rays? The Patriots have been the gold
standard, but with Tom Brady hurt they look old and disinterested. Who knows
what’s going on with Peyton Manning’s knee? Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora
is done for the year and there is noise in New York about trying to lure Michael
Strahan out of retirement. The winds of change may be blowing as the NFL counts
down to the Sept. 4 opener. An early look at teams that figure to get out of the
gate quickly, and some that might not:

NFC
EAST

Has any Super Bowl champion ever gotten less love than
these Giants? You beat the 18-0 Patriots one day, and 24 hours later the wise
guys are saying you won’t even make the playoffs next season. The press in New
York wants Michael Strahan to come out of retirement to shore up the banged-up
defensive line.

OFF TO A FAST START –Dallas Cowboys- There’s a bit of a
problem at WR, where Terry Glenn’s departure could force Terrell Owens to catch
more balls in traffic. And you wonder how long Tony Romo will survive by running
around. Still, the Cowboys have the most talent in the division and the early
going isn’t exactly Normandy.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the Eagles. There are
always issues with Arlen Specter’s homies. Brian Westbrook has a new contract,
but he’s touched the ball 1,461 times (carries and receptions) over six seasons.
Eagle fans will learn that Asante Samuel gambles a bit too much and can give up
big plays.

NFC SOUTH

Ok, it was only an
exhibition. But Tampa Bay was going up against the Patriots’ starting Front 7 in
the second preseason game, and the Bucs dominated. If New Orleans can’t figure
out what went wrong last year, and fix it, Tampa can go 9-7 again and steal this
division. Fans in Florida were shocked when reserve safety Donte Nicholson was
tasered and arrested during a late-July scuffle with police at a St. Petersburg
nightclub. Who knew St. Petersburg had nightclubs?

OFF TO A FAST START –
Just a guess here - New Orleans. The Saints have moved the ball well in
exhibitions, Jeremy Shockey should behave for at least a few months before
mouthing off, and maybe Reggie Bush will finally get it. The opener, at home
against the Bucs, could set the tone for the season.

STICK A FORK IN . .
. the Falcons. Who else? Jim Plunkett was tossed around like a rag doll early in
his career but survived. Hopefully Matt Ryan will stay off the operating table
long enough to figure out NFL defenses.

NFC
WEST

You know you’ve had a bad season when San Francisco and
Arizona are in your division, and you still finish last. But the Rams have been
dead in the water since losing to Carolina in the 2003 playoffs, going 25-39
since that day. Maybe the team is suffering from perpetual jet lag, since it has
to travel halfway across the country for division roads games at San Francisco,
Arizona and Seattle.

OFF TO A FAST START – Seattle Seahawks– Seattle
plays like manure in big road games, and the Seahawks are at the Giants in Game
4. But if they can get by the opener in Buffalo, they have two layups at home
(49ers, Rams) and would be 3-0 with lots of momentum heading into the Giants
game. Health of Matt Hasselbeck and wide receivers is a huge concern,
though.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the Arizona Cardinals. On paper these guys
should be all right. But WR Anquan Boldin is trying to shoot his way out of
town, and Matt Leinart hasn’t shown that he’s mature enough to be the starting
quarterback on a team ready to make a playoff run.

NFC
NORTH

Does anyone have Spergon Wynn’s cell phone number? This
division is desperate for a quarterback. Brett You-Know-Who has taken his act to
New York, and basically that leaves us with the Pips minus Gladys Knight. Aaron
Rogers may or may not be ready, Jon Kitna throws way too many INTs, Tavaris
Jackson is hurting and the Bears could barely make up their mind between Rex
Grossman and Kyle Orton.

OFF TO A FAST START - Detroit Lions (?!) - The
door is wide open for Rod Marinelli’s Lions. Incredibly, the Lions do not face a
top-quality quarterback until Dec. 14 at Indianapolis. They could actually be
good enough to keep people awake on the couch after Thanksgiving dinner. That
2-6 road record has to improve, though.

STICK A FORK IN . . . da Bears.
The offensive and defensive lines are a mess, and the running game is a work in
progress. They might be outscored by the Chicago Fire this

season.

AFC
EAST

Red flags are up from Montpelier to Cape Cod after the
Patriots mailed in three exhibition losses. But can the Jets or Bills make a
serious run at the Tyrannosaurus Rexes of the NFL? It’s an axiom in politics
that you can’t beat somebody with nobody, and that applies here. Brett Favre is
a nice addition, but aren’t the Jets morphing into the old Redskins by signing
every over-the-hill veteran on the market? The Dolphins appear light years from
contending, and Buffalo/Toronto will continue to be a tough out but doesn’t
appear to have enough juice offensively to make the playoffs.

OUT OF THE
GATE FAST – New England Patriots - First four opponents: KC, Jets, Dolphins and
49ers. That’s all you need to know. According to one publication’s mathematical
formula, New England has the easiest schedule of any team since 1992, which
should soften any dropoff.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the Dolphins. San Diego
in the opener. Ugh. On a positive note, Ricky Williams is reportedly playing
well.

NFC SOUTH

How can you not like the Jaguars?
They play hard, they don’t whine, they work in the weight room. You know they
went to see “300” and not “Sex and the City.” Beating Pittsburgh and New England
back-to-back on the road in the playoffs last year was just too high a hill to
climb. They’re not going away.

OUT OF THE GATE FAST – Indianapolis Colts,
assuming Peyton Manning is OK. But if the Colts head into November at less than
5-2, there is a very uncomfortable five-game stretch that includes a home game
against New England and road grinders at Pittsburgh, San Diego and
Cleveland.

STICK A FORK IN . . . nobody. OK, if you crave negativity,
defenses might figure out that Tennessee’s Vince Young is not developing as fast
as everyone in Music City wants. But come on. The Titans went 10-6 last year
without Pacman Jones (or maybe because he was gone). As mathematically
impossible as it sounds, every team might be at least .500 against this
season.

AFC WEST

Everyone seems to like the
Chargers, and a benign early-season schedule should grease the skids for them.
But there’s something about those guys that makes me a bit queasy. Can’t Philip
Rivers shut his mouth and play? Did LaDainian Tomlimson have to spend that
entire AFC Championship Game planted on the bench with his helmet on? When (or
is) Shawne Merriman coming back?

OFF TO A FAST START – San Diego
Chargers. It’s hard to figure out a scenario in which the Chargers don’t win
this division. All they have to do is survive early; the last part of the
schedule includes a slew of bottom-feeders.

STICK A FORK IN . . . the
Denver Broncos. Consider this: Denver gave up almost as many points as the
Dolphins did last season, including 44 to Detroit. And they resorted to signing
37-year-old Tyrone Poole to shore up a secondary that is already banged up. If
you’re thinking the Chiefs should be here instead, note that they have Oakland
at home in Week 2 and are at Atlanta in Week 3.

AFC
NORTH

OK, you give Derek Anderson a ton of money in the
offseason, commit to him as your QB and then allow him to get knocked senseless
in an exhibition. There’s good reason the Browns have never been to a Super
Bowl. Not much is settled in this division. Everyone plays each other early
before crossover games start against the NFC East and it’s possible that every
team could be 2-2 at the quarter pole. The only thing certain here is that this
division will not produce a wild card team.

OUT OF THE GATE FAST – The
best bet would be Pittsburgh, which at least has a stable quarterback. Baltimore
hasn’t had any traction since the Super Bowl in 2001, Cleveland’s defense
doesn’t appear as strong as advertised, and Cincinnati, as always, is a
mess.

STICK A FORK IN … the Ravens. Don’t you get the feeling that every
football, hockey, basketball and baseball franchise in the Baltimore/Washington
corridor is stuck in
quicksand?

NFL is finally here!

2008-08-31T09:45:00.000-07:00

Are you ready for the NFL! It is finally here! Let's get some good feedback on the games this week and pick some winners! I will be in here all week posting information trends and my picks!!
Post your thoughts on this week's games!

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Week One --Public Picks

2008-08-14T15:37:00.001-07:00

Today I want to cover the week one numbers...with so many weeks before the
season starts week one really gives the bettors an edge to get the information
needed to make a sound selection or maybe even seven. ;) So what pick do you
think the public will be all over in week one? Players should line up to take
the Patriots over the Chiefs and Bret Favre in his first game agianst the
Dolphins, but I think the most popular bet on game will be the:

Colts over the Bears

The bears have had some off season issues and the Colts are at home and this
game is national TV! The chargers will get alot of looks over the Panthers but
to me the Colts will be the team to get the most action in week one by the
public. What do you think?

NFLX Friday Night Pre-season

2008-08-08T15:02:00.001-07:00

Why not?

SEATTLE +3

Don't go crazy after all it is pre-season, but why not? The seahawks are
looking to get the running game going without Alexander so look for some battles
in the backfield! This game is going to be a decent pre-season spot for the
birds!!

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year!!

Tom Brady Injured

2008-01-22T06:38:00.000-08:00

BET THE SUPER BOWL HERE!

Tom Brady may have an actual reason to be on the injury report for Super Bowl XLII.
Tom Brady's right foot was under wraps yesterday in New York, but he promises he'll be in full uniform for the Super Bowl. (Insight News and Features)
related content

The quarterback, who has played in 126 straight games despite being a staple of the injury ledger because of his right shoulder, was photographed in New York City yesterday with what appeared to be a walking boot on his right foot.
The gossip website TMZ.com posted a 1-minute-18-second video clip featuring Brady and his supermodel girlfriend Gisele Bundchen in New York. On the video, a hooded Brady, who is seen carrying a duffel bag and flowers, is noticeably favoring his right foot.
Last night, Patriots spokesman Stacey James said the team had no comment on the picture of Brady. The team is off until Thursday and the next injury report isn't due until Wednesday of next week.
Brady appeared to be limping Sunday as he left his news conference following the Patriots' 21-12 victory over the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Championship game.
Yesterday, Brady did not directly answer a question about being hurt during his regular appearance on WEEI's "Dennis and Callahan" show. When he was asked about having his leg looked at on the sideline early in the fourth quarter, he replied:
"There are always kind of bumps and bruises. I'll be ready for the Super Bowl. I'm not missing this one. I'd have to be on a stretcher to miss this one. There will just be some treatment this week and, like I said, games like this you get a little nicked up, but it's nothing serious."
Brady was sacked twice Sunday and appeared to be slightly hobbled after Igor Olshansky and Stephen Cooper tackled him for an 8-yard loss on the final drive of the game.
An injury might explain Brady's subpar - by his MVP standards - performance against the Chargers. He was 22 of 32 for 209 yards and two touchdowns, but was intercepted three times, including once in the end zone by Antonio Cromartie late in the third quarter, Brady's first red zone pick in two seasons.
However, it should be noted that a presumably healthy Brady threw three interceptions against the Chargers in the postseason last year as well.
Brady seemed subdued and frustrated after Sunday's game.
Just the week before, in a 31-20 playoff victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette Stadium, Brady had been pinpoint accurate, completing his first 16 passes and setting an NFL record for highest completion percentage in a game by going 26 of 28 (92.9 percent) for 262 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions.
During the regular season, Brady threw an NFL-record 50 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions, authoring another mark with a plus-42 TD/interception differential.
The 18-0 Patriots will try to complete a perfect 19-0 season by defeating the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII Feb. 3. If Brady were unable to play, the Patriots backups are third-year player Matt Cassel, who in six games this season has completed 4 of 7 passes for 38 yards and an interception that was returned for a touchdown, and undrafted rookie Matt Gutierrez.

Wild Card Weekend

2008-01-05T09:34:00.000-08:00

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NFL Playoffs

Washington @ Seattle
I really want to ride the motional band wagon that is the Washington Redskins winning games in honor of Taylor and getting into the playoffs. The problem is Seattle is a dark horse to me to get to the super bowl. They have experience and are getting healthy at the right time. Collins has played great but the playoff experience will get him and they are playing on one of the best home fields in the league. I just can’t see Washington winning this game today. The passing game will play a role in this game today and that edge goes to the Seahawks.

Seattle -3

Teams with a passing yards per game edge on offense going into a playoff game are 80-63 ATS, or 55.9% since ’93, an improvement of 4.9% over rushing yardage. Since ’00, that record improves to 46-32 ATS for 58.9%, showing that passing is clearly becoming a more important ingredient to playoff success.

When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as a Road team - Playing on turf surface - Total is between 37 to 41 - Coming off a win on grass they are 4-11-1 ATS

When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS team played as a Home team - After a non division game - Coming off a 0-3 point loss they are 10-6 ATS

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

This has been the most hyped playoff game out of all of the games of this wild card weekend. The Jaguars are playing some great football and the Steelers come limping into this game and will be without Willie Parker. I am going to stay away from the side.

Under 40
The Jags ran all over the Steelers the last time they played and the Steelers front line will have a ton to prove against this team and will stack the line to stop the run and they get help in the secondary with Polamalu coming back from injury. This puts the ball in Garrad’s hands and although he has had a great year this is his first playoff start and that is something I can’t bet on.

When PITTSBURGH STEELERS team played as a Home team - After a division game - Scored 14 - 21 POINTS FOR in their last game the under is 12-3

When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as Road team as a Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - Scored 28 points or less FOR in their last game the under is 7-3

Patriots at Giants Game of the year!!

2007-12-29T11:22:00.000-08:00

Patriots Vs Giants

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Since the Patriots / Giants game is such a big game I wanted to post as much information as possible on the game.

My selection is UNDER 46.5

The information posted below is just some solid information I have found on the game and does not reflect how I feel but the goal is to share as much information as possible.

New England at NY GiantsWhile both teams are locked into their respective playoff spots, the Patriots still have plenty to play for both on the individual front for Tom Brady (single-season TD passing record) and Randy Moss (single-season TD receiving record), and the team front (perfect season). The Giants are not likely to play much of the game at full strength. But even with all their starters in the lineup, they are the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record at home (3-4). New England should have just enough to cover (-14 1/2) in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-14 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29Game 411-412: New England at NY GiantsDunkel Ratings: New England 148.567; NY Giants 133.003Dunkel Line: New England by 15 1/2; 42Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 44 1/2Dunkel Pick: New England (-14 1/2); Under

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 17

Saturday, December 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------NEW ENGLAND (15 - 0) at NY GIANTS (10 - 5) - 12/29/2007, 8:15 PMTop Trends for this game.NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.NEW ENGLAND is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in December games since 1992.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.NEW ENGLAND is 75-50 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.NEW ENGLAND is 52-27 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.Head-to-Head Series HistoryThere were no past matchups in this series during this time period. NFL SHORT SHEETWeek 17Saturday, December 29thNew England at NY Giants, 8:15 EST TV- NFL, NBC, CBSNew England: 6-0 ATS away off a division gameNY Giants: 0-7 ATS at home in the second half of the season

NFL WRITE-UP

Week 17Week 17 NFL scoreboardVery strange week looms ahead, as most of the playoff spots are already sewn up, so motivation and who-plays-how much is the big question of the week. More than most weeks, keeping your ears to the TV for late news Saturday night/Sunday will be very helpful in your handicapping efforts.Saturday, December 29Patriots (15-0) @ Giants (10-5) -- New York has playoff game next week, so they're more likely to sit any nicked-up starters than the Patriots, who have next week off. NE covered just one of last five games, winning by 3-3-21-10-21 points- they're 5-2 as road faves with five wins by 21+ pts. Pats allowed two offensive TDs in last 31 drives by opponents. Giants are 3-2 vs spread as an underdog this season- their losses are by 10-22-11-24-12 pts. Does anyone think Giants would beat New England, even if they did go all out? Over is 5-2 in New England road games this season.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---

Tips and Trends

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---New England Patriots at New York Giants(NFL/CBS/NBC 8:15 PM ET)There are no playoff implications in this game yet it's obviously one of the biggest regular-season finales in the history of the NFL as the Patriots look to complete the 1st unbeaten 16-0 season. "We know we have an opportunity to get to 16," New England QB Tom Brady said. "That would be a great accomplishment for this team." Brady also needs just 2 touchdown passes to break Indy QB Peyton Manning's single-season record, and WR Randy Moss needs 2 TD catches to replace Jerry Rice as the single-season record holder. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTSOf New England's last 6 wins, 4 have been decided by 10 points or less. New York also knocked off a previously unbeaten 13-0 Denver team at the Meadowlands back on December 13th, 1998. "Of course you play every game to win, and so all of our thoughts are on that," Giants head coach Tom Coughlin said. "All of our thoughts are on trying to figure out how we can be in a position to defeat a team that is 15-0 and a very, very good team." SLIGHT EDGE: GIANTSThe Giants are just 3-4 at home this season and has not won at the Meadowlands since beating San Francisco there on October 21st. They have lost their last 3 at home and are also expected to rest key starters, including RB Brandon Jacobs, who has a nagging ankle injury and rushed for a season-high 145 yards last week at Buffalo.EDGE: PATRIOTSGiants are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games.Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Week 17 games.The UNDER is 8-0-1 in New England's last 9 Saturday games.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---NFL game day buzz: Week 17 betting notes--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---

Monday Night Football

2007-12-17T13:27:00.000-08:00

Monday Night Sneak Sheet

Monday night Football

At the start of the year no one would have guessed that the Vikings would be fighting for a playoff spot and the Bears would be looking forward to next year. That is exactly the case going into tonight’s game and the Vikings have more reason to win now than ever as the Saints and the Redskins yesterday putting some serious heat on the Vikings to stay ahead of the game in the playoff hunt.

The fall of the Bears defense has been as swift as it has been demoralizing. It almost incomprehensible to believe the defense in the white and navy uniforms with orange trim was in a Super Bowl just over 10 months ago and is now ranked 29th in the league. Such is life in the ever-changing NFL , taking on a Minnesota squad that is 44-20 ATS when they rush for 125 or more yards.
With Chicago’s porous run defense, it hardly seems fair for them to face Peterson and Taylor behind the domineering blocks of T Bryant McKinnie and G Steve Hutchinson. Minnesota averages 27 points a game at home and is 6-0 ATS at the Metrodome when they score 22 to 28 points.
When CHICAGO BEARS team played as a Road team - During the month of December - vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % they are 2-8 ATS

When MINNESOTA VIKINGS team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Coming off a Road win they are 8-3-1 ATS

The Vikings control the line of scrimmage and dominate against the Bears tonight at home.

Vikings -10

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Saturday Night NFL

2007-12-15T15:58:00.000-08:00

NFL Tonight

Sorry so late about getting this one out, but I do like it.

Game:
Bengals/ 49ers Over 42
SF +8

First Half:
SF +5
Over 21.5 -105

SF ML +300

This game looks ugly on paper but I think we are in for a good game tonight. Sure both teams have lost plenty of ball games and they don’t have anything to play for so what’s so good about it? The defenses are both very suspect and this will open up the scoring and that always makes for a good game. The Shaun Hill era begins tonight for the 49ers. The Bengals are nothing special on defense, ranking 26th overall, 22nd against the run and 25th against the pass. The 49ers will probably have Hill throw safe, high-percentage passes. Look for tight end Delanie Walker to have a big day based on his history with Hill in the preseason and scout offense. "It's been looking good with Shaun at quarterback," Walker said. "The game plan is very simple. We're going to do what we did last week - execute underneath passes and get the ball out as quickly as possible. I'm going to be a key factor again this week. I do run a lot of underneath routes. It'll be there if he looks for it."
I have plenty of reasons for backing the home niners but my main one is this. The Benglas not only have a horrible defense but they have only one once on the road this year and that is not a good recipe to back the chalk. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS off an Under and San Francisco is 10-3 ATS after scoring 9 or less points. The 49ers have motivation to win this game tonight and do well on offense and with that they warrant a play tonight.

The Bengals are 4-8 ATS.
The Bengals are 1-4 ATS away.
The Bengals are 3-4 ATS as the favorite.
The Bengals are 0-2 ATS as an away favorite.

When CINCINNATI BENGALS team played as a Road team - During the month of December - Scored more than 10 points in back to back games - Coming off a win on grass they are 4-14-1 ATS

When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as a Home team - During Week 12 to 16 - Coming off a 1 under they are 9-3 ATS AND 11-1 SU!
When ANY NFL Team played as a Home team - During Week 12 to 16 - vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % they are 165-83-1 SU

NFL Thursday Night

2007-12-13T15:03:00.000-08:00

Thursday Night NFL

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Houston +1.5

Don’t sleep on the Texans tonight. The Texans showed they still have some fight left as they steamrolled the Buccaneers when Tampa really needed the win. Some that back Houston may think it is about the offense that is looking good, but I point to the defense and the pass rush that is living up to the hype! At home on national TV (sort of) I will take Houston to win this one! When Houston plays the AFC West the straight up winner is 11-0 ATS
When DENVER BRONCOS team played as a Road team - Playing on grass surface - Before a conference game - Coming off a Home win they are 6-13-2 ATS

When HOUSTON TEXANS team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Coming off 1 ATS win they are 9-4 ATS

More NFL Sunday

2007-12-09T09:06:00.000-08:00

NFL Best Bet

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Sunday’s Best Bet

Today for my best bet I am going to look at the game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.

The play is OVER 44.

Arizona comes into this game with a chance to have the best record they have had since 2001 but they have to get by the Seahawks and they are looking for revenge after losing in the desert. Seattle has started passing a bit more this year than last year and that will equal plenty of points as the Cardinals secondary is in shambles decimated by injury. Five of the past six series encounters have been on the high side. Arizona has topped the 'total' in 13 of 17 as road pups. In fact 15 of the last 21 games have gone over for the Cardinals when they play as road dogs.

When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS team played as a -7.0 to -9.5 Favorite - Before a non division game - Scored 28 points or more FOR in their last game the over is 8-2

When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as a 7 to 9.5 Road Underdog - With 6 day off - Coming off a Home win - Allowed 21 points or less AGAINST in their last game the over is 9-2

When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Last 4 years - Coming off a Home win the over is 10-2

When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as Road team as a Underdog - With 6 day off - After a non division game - Coming off 1 ATS win the over is 20-13

More great plays:

49ers +8.5
Vikings / 49ers
The Vikings are having a good year but catch the lowly niners in a tough spot as they are in a divisional sandwich. It gets worse for the Vikings. The Vikings are 2-11-1 against the spread as road favorites the last four weeks of the season. In addition, they have failed to cash at a 4-18 clip on the highway versus poor passing teams that average 5.7 or less yards per attempt during the second half of the season

When MINNESOTA VIKINGS team played as Road team as a Favorite - With 6 day off - Coming off back to back SU wins they are 4-12-2 ATS

When MINNESOTA VIKINGS team played as a Road team - During the month of December - Coming off vs National Conference opponent - Coming off a win in dome they are 3-8-3 ATS.

Houston +3
Houston/ Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Bucs can clinch with a win today in Houston but that will be easier said than done. The second game on the road for the Bucs and they will not get the breaks they got last week against the Saints.
The Bucs have dropped 18 of 21 ATS on the road against non-division foes and 16 of 25 on the highway ATS in December. They have also stumbled in 11 of 15 ATS after winning SU as underdogs. Houston is 12-4-1 ATS following two straight spread setbacks.
When HOUSTON TEXANS team played as a Home team - With 6 day off - Coming off a lost on grass they are 11-6 ATS
When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as Road team as a Favorite - During Week 12 to 16 - Allowed 24 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 1-10 ATS

When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as a Road team - During Week 12 to 16 - vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % they are 3-10-1 ATS

When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as a pk to 3 Road Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Allowed 24 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 1-9 ATS

Sunday NFL

2007-12-08T20:03:00.000-08:00

Sneak Sheet

Wall to Wall Football!

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NFL Today

One unit: Carolina +10.5
Carolina / Jacksonville

Carolina has had a tough season with injuries taking them out of the playoff race and making it very tough on the panthers. Jacksonville is off a tough loss to the Colts in a game where they wanted to win to prove to the Colts they could take the division. Carolina has the edge in this one, it may be close which is one I kept it at one unit but this number is inflated and off by about 4-5 points. Carolina is 17-6 ATS away in December. Carolina is 49-28 as road dogs and it has cashed 19 of 26 after coming up short in three of its previous four games ATS.The Jaguars are 2-8 ATS before facing Pittsburgh
Play On - Road teams (CAROLINA) after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, in December. games
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as a Home team - Vs Non Division Opponent - Playing on grass surface - Coming off 1 game loss they are 3-7-1 ATS
When CAROLINA PANTHERS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Non Division Opponent - After a conference game - Allowed 14 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 11-1 ATS
When CAROLINA PANTHERS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Non Division Opponent - Allowed 14 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 13-3 ATS

One Unit: Lions +10.5
Detroit / Dallas
This game has brought a lot of attention to the Dallas defense as they have gone on record as saying that they are coming after Kitna and will pay a fine if they need to. This is not good to make public in my opinion and the referees will be watching and you can be sure the 15 yard flags will be flying against that defense. A small play on the lions looking to try and win one and get back in the playoff hunt. Detroit is 18-7 ATS off 3+ ATS losses. The Cowboys have dropped 18 of 21 ATS on the highway after 'covering' the spread in three of their last four games. Conversely, Detroit is 18-7 ATS after three or more straight losses. The Lions have shown resiliency after being out-gained by 100 or more total yards two consecutive games with 12-2 ATS mark, including 4-0 the last three seasons.

One Unit: Miami +7
Miami / Buffalo
The Dolphins have yet to win and its hard to think that will change in Buffalo where they have always had problems in the winter. With the exceptions of a few games the Dolphins have managed to keep it close in the losses they have and they should do that again!
PLAY AGAINST any NFL division home favorite of -4 or more who failed to score 21 or more points in any of its last three games if he is off a SU and ATS win and is going into revenge.

26 Year ATS = 13-1 for 92.8%.
When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as a Road team - With 6 day off - Coming off 1 ATS lost they are 17-9-1 ATS

Three Units: Eagles -3
Eagles / Giants
Finally a favorite makes my list of plays and it’s with the Eagles. The Eagles are looking for revenge and will have the key components back in action. Eli Manning has had a poor season and the Eagles defense will take advantage of this. New York upset Philadelphia as three-point home dogs in the first meeting of the season, 16-3, cashing for only the third time in the last nine encounters. The Eagles are 44-22 ATS when in revenge mode and 17-6 ATS avenging an upset loss against an opponent as favorites.
When NEW YORK GIANTS team played as a Road team - Vs NFC East opponent - Coming off a Road win - Allowed 14 - 21 AGAINST in their last game they are 5-10 ATS
When PHILADELPHIA EAGLES team played as a pk to -3.0 Favorite - Playing on grass surface - Before a conference game - Scored 24 points or less FOR in their last game they are 8-3 ATS

Two units: Over 39.5
Oakland / Green Bay
This game is going to be all about the offense and the numbers should be high and I would not be surprised if this total is eclipsed in the first half. Green Bay has zipped 'over' in 16 of 26 at Lambeau Field in December.
When GREEN BAY PACKERS team played as a -10.0 or more Home Favorite - Playing on grass surface - Coming off vs National Conference opponent the over is 11-6.
When OAKLAND RAIDERS team played as a Road team - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off 2 game winning streak - Coming off back to back SU wins the over is 8-5 ATS.

San Diego / Tennessee
I have a lean to the Titans at home but I am going to pass on this game. I did dig up some interesting trends so I will post them but overall it is a pass. San Diego is 21-8 ATS on the road after allowing 10 points or less and 12-3 ATS on the highway after having won six or seven of eight. Tennessee has 'covered' 24 of 29 as non-division dogs off a SU win. The Chargers have eclipsed the 'total' in 10 of 12 when it was between 35 1/2 and 42 and the Titans have followed suit in 15 of 20 with the same numbers in play. Tennessee has also been on the high side in 12 of 15 as home dogs of three points or less. San Diego is 6-0 Over after winning 3 of their last 4 games and Tennessee is 17-6 ATS off a division home win.
When ANY NFL Team played as Home team as a Underdog - Playing on grass surface - vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % they are 80-52-9 ATS (TENN)

Cincinnati / St. Louis
This is another pass for me as I really want to take the bengals since Bulger will not be playing for the Rams, but the bengals defense is so bad I don’t know if I can trust them, but again here are some good trends and information for those that are playing it. St. Louis is 34-17 Over vs. non-conference opponents and Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS after scoring 14 or less points. St. Louis is 10-28-2 ATS on the road against a non-division foe. Cincinnati is 20-13-2 ATS hosting an NFC team. The Rams have slipped 'under' in seven of 11 games this year, including four of five on the road. But they have zoomed 'over' in 16 of 24 as non-conference dogs.
When ST. LOUIS RAMS team played as a Road team - During Week 12 to 16 - Coming off 1 ATS win they are 2-9 ATS. When CINCINNATI BENGALS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - Coming off a lost on grass the over is 7-3.

Monday Night Football

2007-12-03T15:23:00.000-08:00

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Now on to the games:

NFL
This game is a big one for the Ravens as they have a beef to pick with Thomas as he left the Ravens for the Patriots and since has been in a verbal joust with Ray Lewis. The Ravens offense has been a mess, but they are at home on a Monday Night and to me that is always worth a look at the dog. The defense can learn from the Eagles and pressure Brady and keep this close, but I can’t trust the offense of the Ravens so with all of this, I am going to pass.

There is a wind advisory and tonight the wind will play a factor in the game. I will play the total tonight. Brady has played more than one game with tough winds and he played brilliantly and scored plenty of points. The under seems to be the fan favorite but I am going the other way here. Just keeping this at one unit, but will play the over.

Over 47

NFL Super Picks!

2007-12-02T09:16:00.001-08:00

NFL Today!

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Buffalo +6

The Redskins are the sentimental pick with the death of Sean Taylor, but the team has not played well at all losing games they had a good chance of winning. The Redskins have a habit of falling down late in the year. When WASHINGTON REDSKINS played as Home Favourite- in the month of November they are 7-23 ATS. Buffalo is 7-2 ATS off BB Overs and Washington is 0-5 ATS off BB games with 400+ total yards

Detroit +4

The lions need to win now to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Vikings are off an impressive win against the Giants, but are not ready to move to the next level. Lions passing attack can expose the Vikings and win outright. Detroit is 18-6 ATS off 3+ ATS losses and Minnesota is 2-11 ATS off a win by 14+ points as an underdog

When MINNESOTA VIKINGS team played as a Home team - After a conference game - Coming off 2 game winning streak they are 3-9 ATS
When DETROIT LIONS team played as a Road team - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off vs National Conference opponent - Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog they are 8-3 ATS.

Arizona -1
The Cardinals are a much different team at home as evident by the win earlier in the year against the Steelers. The Browns are another team that has had problems playing late in the season.
When CLEVELAND BROWNS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Non Division Opponent - Before a non division game - Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 3-8-1 ATS.
When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as a Home team - Last 4 years - Coming off a lost on grass they are 12-3 ATS

Arizona / Cleveland OVER 51.5
This game is going to be a meeting of some serious offenses and the defenses will not be able to slow them down. Look for some solid passing numbers this week. When CLEVELAND BROWNS team played as a Road team - Playing on grass surface - Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game the over is 13-3-1. When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as a pk to -3.0 Home Favorite - With 6 day off - Coming off vs National Conference opponent the over is 17-9-1. When CLEVELAND BROWNS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a Home win the over is 11-1-1. Arizona is 13-5 Over playing on artificial turf.

KC +6
The Chiefs already beat the Chargers once and are now pegged as big dogs at home. The chargers have the revenge, but the Chiefs match up well against them which are why they beat them so badly the first time. San Diego is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and Kansas City is 5-1 ATS off a division loss. When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as Home team as a Underdog - With 6 day off - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a lost on grass they are 15-1-2 ATS. When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as Home team as a Underdog - Playing on grass surface - Allowed 20 points or more AGAINST in their last game they are 18-4-2 ATS.

Atlanta +3
The Rams are not a good team, and while the Falcons are not very good but they can play at the same level as the Rams and that makes those three points very valuable. Atlantais 6-1 ATS off BB Overs and St. Louis is 1-6 ATS off an Under. When ST. LOUIS RAMS team played as a Home team - Vs Conference Opponent - Coming off 1 game loss they are 4-14 ATS. When ST. LOUIS RAMS team played as a Home team - During Week 12 to 16 - Coming off a Home loss they are 4-12 ATS. When ST. LOUIS RAMS team played as a Home team - Total is between 41.5 to 44 - Scored 20 points or less FOR in their last game - Scored more than 10 points in back to back games they are 5-13-2 ATS. When ATLANTA FALCONS team played as a Road team - Last 5 years - Coming off a lost in dome they are 9-5-1 ATS.

Oakland +3.5
The Denver Broncos narrowly escaped with a win the last time they played the Raiders and now the have to travel to the black hole. Is anyone paying attention to Justin Fargas? This running back is finally getting some carries and he is one the leading rushers over the last 3 weeks. When DENVER BRONCOS team played as a Road team - During the month of December - Coming off 1 ATS lost they are 3-9 ATS.

Packers / Cowboys

2007-11-29T15:05:00.001-08:00

I have the NFL, College Football and NBA!

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NFL

There has not been a bigger game in a long time!

One Unit:
Under 51

The Game should have a playoff like atmosphere and look for the defenses to play tight early and that will be enough to go under.

Game of the year!

2007-11-27T17:22:00.000-08:00

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PACKERS (10-1, 9-2) at COWBOYS (10-1, 7-3-1)

Green Bay has been one of the toughest dogs in the NFL kennel this year, cashing at a 6-0 clip. The Packers are 10-2 as road dogs the past two seasons and 8-1 when getting seven points or less. Dallas is 15-5 ATS at home versus teams from the NFC-North and it has won eight straight and cashed seven of eight versus Green Bay, though the last meeting was in 2004. The Cowboys are 2-13 ATS off a win by 28 points or more. Green Bay has zipped 'over' in 12 of 16 road games after four or more straight spread wins. Dallas has followed suit in 18 of 23 at home after three or more SU wins in succession.

Green Bay at Dallas, 8:15 EST NFL
Green Bay: 11-2 ATS in road games
Dallas: 2-13 ATS off a win by 28+ points

GET THE BEST LINE HERE!

PICK: GREEN BAY +7

Thanksgiving Plays

2007-11-21T20:13:00.001-08:00

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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Two units: Detroit +3

I never have a problem backing a home team on a holiday! Detroit has 'covered' 11 of its last 16 versus the Packers at home and the host is 14-4 ATS in this NFC Central rivalry. In addition, the Lions are 14-5 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses and 18-10 ATS after scoring 10 points or less. They have also 'covered' eight of nine at Ford Field in November with revenge versus a division opponent.

One Unit: Jets +15

The jets have played much better ball and are off a big win over the Steelers. They have set up the running game to defeat the Steelers and if they can do it again this one will be close. The Cowboys will be looking ahead to the showdown with the Packers. Dallas has been no bargain as a double-digit favorite (9-18-2).

Three Units: Colts/Falcons over 41

The Colts have had issues in the last week but all should be cured when they face the Falcons at home on Thanksgiving. The Falcons will be able to put a few up late in the game to push this over the top. The Falcons have been on the high side in 14 of 22 as double-digit dogs and in 14 of 20 as short-enders versus non-conference opponents. They have also topped the 'total' in 11 of 15 at home after scoring 10 points or less.

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2007-11-19T17:34:00.000-08:00

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Monday Night Football

2007-11-19T15:43:00.001-08:00

NFL

One unit:
Over 38

These teams have not played defense very well and the weapons should be able to move the ball. Not ready to take a side and treading lightly after yesterday’s debacle!

When DENVER BRONCOS team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a conference game - Coming off 2 game Road stand the over is 8-2

When DENVER BRONCOS team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a conference game - Coming off vs American Conference opponent the over is 40-18-3

When TENNESSEE TITANS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - Playing on grass surface - Coming off 1 ATS lost the over is 10-5

NFL Week 11

2007-11-18T08:36:00.000-08:00

NFL Today

Bengals -3
[img] http://www.statfox.com/images/helmets/NFL/CINCINNATI.gif[/img]
The bengals are starting to win again but can you trust them? You can against the Cardinals banged up secondary. Palmer will be able to throw against this team and get a couple of victories strung together. Arizona is 4-10 as non-conference dogs of more than three points. The Cards have also floundered in 20 of 28 on the highway against non-division opponents. Cincinnati is 20-12-2 at Paul Brown Stadium versus NFC foes.
When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - With 6 day off - Coming off a win on grass they are 4-11-1 ATS
When CINCINNATI BENGALS team played as a Home team - During the month of November - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a 1 under they are 12-4-1 ATS

[IMG]http://www.statfox.com/images/helmets/nfl/New%20Orleans.gif[/IMG] AT [IMG]http://www.statfox.com/images/helmets/nfl/Houston.gif[/IMG]
New Orleans / Houston Over 48
Houston has a decent passing offense and the Saints have not been able to slow a team like that down this year. Johnson returns for the Texans and that will make them even deadlier. This won’t stop the Saints from putting points on the board.

NEW ORLEANS is 18-3 OVER (+14.7 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.3, OPPONENT 29.3

Houston: 10-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3

When HOUSTON TEXANS team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game the over is 10-2

When HOUSTON TEXANS team played as a Home team - Last 5 years - Coming off 2 game Road stand the over is 9-2

When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS team played as a Road team - During the month of November - Coming off 1 game loss the over is 12-5

Panthers +9.5
[img] http://www.statfox.com/images/helmets/nfl/Carolina.gif[/img]
Call me crazy to back the Panthers at Green Bay but I like this spot against Green Bay.
Carolina is 20-11-2 as non-division road dogs. Green Bay is 2-10 ATS off a division game, 2-11-1 as double-digit favorites and 6-12-1 as home chalk. John Fox is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) as a road underdog as the coach of CAROLINA. The average score was Fox 19, OPPONENT 17.9
When CAROLINA PANTHERS team played as a Road team - Last 4 years - Coming off a lost on grass they are 11-6 ATS
Carolina: 30-16 ATS away off an ATS lossGreen Bay: 0-8 ATS at home off an Under

Atlanta +3

[IMG] http://www.statfox.com/images/helmets/nfl/Atlanta.gif[/img] Backing the Atlanta Falcons is never an easy proposition but in this case it works. The Falcons are playing much better football lately and getting inspired play at defense and even at the QB spot. Dunn always likes to play against his former team and the home dog will have some bite today.

When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as Road team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite they are 4-11
The Bucs are 5-10 as division road favorites and 2-7 as road chalk of 3 1/2 points or less.

Jon Gruden is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games after the first month of the season as the coach of TAMPA BAY. The average score was Gruden 15.6, OPPONENT 19.7 –

Washington +11
[img] http://www.statfox.com/images/helmets/nfl/Washington.gif[/img]
Going against the Cowboys is always tricky but today it’s warranted. The boys are playing the third straight divisional game and get a Redskin team that is ready to play tough against its rivals. Moss will be back in the lineup for Washington giving them a boost on offense. The Redskins are 11-5-1 as division road dogs.
When DALLAS COWBOYS team played as a Home team - Total is between 44.5 to 47 - Coming off a win on turf they are 2-8-1 ATS

NFL Picks and Plays

2007-11-11T09:07:00.000-08:00

1) Arizona -1

The fishy line was the first thing that jumped out on me for this game, why only a one point line for teams that look like they are going into different directions? Arizona will win this game and match up well in ever facet of the game especially on the defensive side of things. When DETROIT LIONS team played as a 0 to 3 Road Underdog - With 6 day off - Coming off a win in dome they are 2-8-2 ATS. When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as a Home team - Last 3 years - Coming off a lost on grass they are 7-3 ATS.

2) Browns +10

If the Browns are going to prove to people that they are an elite team in the AFC they have to win against the Steelers. Coming off a short week and a blowout win the Browns will keep this close. When PITTSBURGH STEELERS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Coming off 2 ATS win they are 6-15 ATS. When CLEVELAND BROWNS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Last 4 years - Allowed 30 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 6-4 ATS

3) Buffalo -2.5

The Dolphins have thrown in the towel on the year and injuries have not helped. Meanwhile in Buffalo the offense has been brought back to life with Losman back and they are ready to go over .500 and stay there. When BUFFALO BILLS team played as a Road team - Vs AFC East opponent - Coming off a win on turf - Coming off 3 game winning streak they are 6-4-1 ATS. When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a lost on grass they are 1-10-1 ATS.

4) Philly +3

After the blowout loss to the Cowboys the Eagles started talking about benching McNabb so it is important he has a good game today and proves to the ownership and his team mates he can still play. The Redskins will come up short this week going against an embarrassed Eagle defense that is angry and ready to go. When PHILADELPHIA EAGLES team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs NFC East opponent - vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % they are 10-3 ATS. When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a win on turf they are 4-7 ATS.

5) Giants +1.5

Revenge is sweet and the G men will look to get it tonight against their arch rivals. The last time they played the blue defense was torched by the Cowboys, but they are a much different defense this year. They will be ready to play and force Romo into bad play making and scores. When DALLAS COWBOYS team played as Road team as a Favorite - With 6 day off - Allowed 14 - 21 AGAINST in their last game they are 6-12 ATS. When NEW YORK GIANTS team played as a Home team - Before a non division game - Allowed 10 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 31-18 ATS

6) Titans -4

With the loss by the Colts to the Patriots the Titans see a shot at grabbing the title in this division and they have to trounce the Jags to do that. Young has played well against the Jags in the past and the Titan defense has been impressive. When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Before a conference game - Coming off 1 ATS lost they are 3-8 ATS. When TENNESSEE TITANS team played as a Home team - Vs Conference Opponent - After a non division game - Coming off a win on grass they are 10-5 ATS.

7) Ravens -3

Ray Lewis opened his mouth about the Ravens and how well they will play at home and this week they will have to back it up. The good news is they face the Bengals and their defense has made every offense in the NFL look good. The Ravens are out to prove something and they will do it in blowout fashion. When BALTIMORE RAVENS team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a conference game - Coming off 2 game Road stand they are 11-3-1 ATS. When CINCINNATI BENGALS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Before a non division game - Coming off a 11-13 point loss they are 2-10 ATS.

NFL Sunday

2007-11-04T08:42:00.000-08:00

Colts +6

This line is too high for an undefeated team at home. The Colts keep this close with Vinateri kicking the FG's for the Colts.

Arizona +3.5

Garcia showed his weakness last week turning over the ball and throwing the game away for the Bucs. The Cardinals have a solid defense and will have a serious shot of winning this on the field so the points are a gift. This will be a defensive battle and the kicker will decide the winner.

When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as a Home team - After a non conference game - Coming off 1 over they are 3-8-1 ATS

When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Home Favorite - After a non division game - Scored 24 points or less FOR in their last game they are 7-13 ATS

ARIZONA at TAMPA BAYPlay On - Road teams (ARIZONA) off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )

Cleveland -1

The Browns are a good club and they are getting some respect this week as a favorite at home over a good Seattle team. There is a reason for it. The offense of Cleveland has finally caught up to a good defense and they are winning games just like this. The Browns run away with it at home today. Seattle historically has played badly off a bye.

Seattle: 0-8 ATS off a division win by 21+ points

When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS team played as a Road team - During the month of November - Coming off a 1 under they are 3-7 ATS

Since the line is so small some straight up numbers factor in

When ANY NFL Team played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - With 6 day off - Allowed 20 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 1427-645-4 SU (CLE)

When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Non Division Opponent - Scored 29 - 35 POINTS FOR in their last game they are 75-180 SU (SEA)

Kansas City -2.5

The Packers travel off a Monday Night win and that puts them in one of the toughest road venues in the league. KC has one of the best red zone defenses in the league and will give the Packers fits with the rushing scheme.

When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a Home team - Last 4 years - After a conference game they are 11-4 ATS

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Buffalo +1

Buffalo is a very decent home team that has taken good teams to the wire on many occasions this year. Now they get the bengals with a limping defense that has been torched by every team they face. Losman is at QB and that will get the offense going in high gear.

Cincinnati: 1-8 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 gamesBuffalo: 8-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

When CINCINNATI BENGALS team played as a pk to -3.0 Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a lost on grass they are 3-7-1 ATS

When BUFFALO BILLS team played as a Home team - Last 3 years - Scored more than 10 points in back to back games they are 7-4 ATS

NFL Week 9 Trends

2007-11-02T15:13:00.000-07:00

The Detroit Lions (5-2, 4-2-1) have the Motor City faithful excited for the first time in nearly a decade. The Lions haven't finished with a winning record since 1998 and they have advanced to the postseason since 1999. They have a golden opportunity to approach both of those milestones in 2007 following a surprising 5-2 start.
Detroit has reestablished its home field advantage this year, winning its first three at Ford Field after coming up short in 11 of its previous 15. The Lions will try to win three in a row for the first time since 2000 this Sunday when they welcome Denver (3-3, 1-5 prior to Monday) to Motown.
The Broncos have cashed 27 of 42 when playing the first of back-to-back games on the road. They have also 'covered' at a 28-14-1 clip as underdogs and at a 10-5-1 pace on the highway against NFC opposition.
Detroit is 15-3 ATS at home after two SU wins in a row and 7-0 in November. However, the Lions are just 11-20-1 as home favorites and 3-9 as non-conference chalk.

Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 9 NFL menu appear below.

SKINS (4-3, 3-3-1) at JETS (1-7, 1-6-1)
The New York Jets have come up short in their last five trips to the post ATS and they are 0-3-1 ATS at the Meadowlands. The Jets are 10-21-1 ATS at home when facing NFC teams and 10-21-1 as underdogs. They have cashed 21 of 27 off a home loss to a division rival. Washington is 2-5-1 in its last eight chances as favorites. The Redskins have been on the low side in nine of their last 13 as non-conference favorites and in nine of 11 as road chalk of 3 Â½-points or less. New York has eclipsed the 'total' in eight of nine at home when the number was between 35 Â½ and 38.

PACKERS (5-1, 4-2 prior to Monday) at CHIEFS (4-3, 5-2)
Kansas City is 19-6-1 ATS at home off a straight up and ATS win. Green Bay had failed at a 9-3-1 clip versus AFC opponents pending the results of Monday's battle with Denver. The Chiefs have zipped 'over' in 21 of 30 as non-conference favorites.

CARDS (3-4, 5-1-1) at BUCS (4-4 SU&ATS)
Arizona is 3-18 ATS on the highway versus a non-division foe off a SU loss. However, the Cards have 'covered' 12 of 17 after a bye, including nine of their last 11 as underdogs. Tampa Bay has thrived at home versus non-division opponents, getting the green at a 32-17-2 clip. The Bucs have also cashed 25 of 34 after losing SU as favorites and 23 of 35 after losing by three points or less. Arizona has soared 'over' in 12 of 15 as road dogs and in 10 of 11 away from home when the 'total' was between 35 Â½ and 42. Conversely, Tampa Bay has strayed below the limit in 16 of 20 as home favorites.

PANTHERS (4-3 SU&ATS) at TITANS (5-2, 4-3)
Carolina has cashed at a 49-26 clip as road dogs and it is 32-15 as short-enders of seven points or less away from home. Tennessee is 8-21 as home chalk of between 3 Â½ and seven points. However, the Titans are 10-4 as non-conference home favorites and 21-11 ATS overall against NFC foes. The Panthers are 20-10-2 as non-division road pups, but just 3-11 ATS on grass. Tennessee has been on the high side in 29 of 43 non-conference tests and in 14 of 16 after scoring and allowing 14 points or less.

49ERS (2-5, 2-4-1) at FALCONS (1-6, 4-3)
Atlanta is 11-23-1 ATS at home as non-division home favorites. The Falcons have floundered in six of their last nine overall as home chalk. San Francisco has blown 'over' at a 28-16-1 pace on the road outside its division. Atlanta has ducked 'under' in eight of nine as home favorites and in 22 of its last 31 in November at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have eclipsed the number in 24 of 30 off a division road loss.

JAGUARS (5-2, 4-3) at SAINTS (3-4, 2-5)
New Orleans hasn't fared well against AFC teams in the Big Easy (4-11-1 ATS). The Saints are a dismal 9-21-1 ATS at home. Jacksonville has 'covered' at a 16-7-1 rate as dogs and at a 23-10-1 clip versus non-division foes. New Orleans has slipped below the number in 13 of 19 as home favorites of 3 Â½-points or less.

BENGALS (2-5, 2-4-1) at BILLS (3-4, 5-2)
Buffalo has won six straight and cashed five of six versus Cincinnati dating back to 1992. The Bills are 21-8 ATS in November at home. However, they are 7-19 ATS off a double-digit division win. The Bengals are 1-8 ATS after losing two of three and 5-12 ATS on the road after losing by 14 points or more. They have also come up short in six of their last eight against NFC-East opponents. Buffalo has slipped 'under' in 13 of 15 as home favorites of 3 Â½-points or less.

CHARGERS (4-3 SU&ATS) at VIKINGS (2-5, 2-3-2)
San Diego has several impressive numbers on this week's resume. The Chargers are 21-6 ATS on the road after allowing 10 points or less and 26-10 ATS after winning by 13 points or more. They have also 'covered' 22 of 30 on the road against NFC foes. Minnesota is 20-10 as home dogs, but 0-2 this season. San Diego has eclipsed the 'total' in 20 of 28 games as a non-conference favorite.

SEAHAWKS (4-3, 3-3-1) at BROWNS (4-3, 5-2)
Cleveland looks to win three in a row for the first time since 2001. The Browns are 17-6-1 ATS after scoring 23 points or more, but 7-14-1 ATS off a SU win. Seattle is 3-10 ATS on the road against AFC rivals and 0-8 ATS off a blowout win over a division rival. The Seahawks have zipped 'over' in 10 of 13 as non-conference dogs. Cleveland has headed in the opposite direction in nine of 10 as home favorites of 3 Â½-points or less.

PATS (8-0 SU&ATS) at COLTS (7-0, 5-1-1)
Indianapolis has cashed 11 of its last 14 at home. The last time the Colts were home underdogs was in Game 4 of the 1999 season when they lost to Miami, 34-31. New England has won six straight on the road and cashed 12 of 14. The Patriots are 8-1 as road favorites the last two years and 12-2 SU. They have 'covered' 10 of 12 versus Indianapolis and won and cashed three straight at the RCA Dome. Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS in Weeks 5-9. They are 4-10 ATS at home versus an opponent with a win percentage of over .666. New England has bounced 'over' in seven of eight games this year. The Colts have followed suit at a 22-9-3 rate as underdogs.

TEXANS (3-5, 2-5-1) at RAIDERS (2-5, 3-4)
Oakland is 0-7 ATS at home after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games and 5-16 as favorites. Houston has failed to get the green in its last five trips to the post and in five of its last seven on the road. The Raiders have gone 'under' in 14 of 16 at home after the first month of the season. The Texans have stayed on the low side at an 18-11-1 rate as road short-enders.

COWBOYS (6-1, 4-2-1) at EAGLES (3-4 SU&ATS)
Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 15 at home versus Dallas. The SU winner in this NFC-East rivalry is 27-4-1 ATS. The Cowboys are 24-12-1 as road favorites of seven points or less and they have cashed 12 of 14 the week before facing the Giants. The Eagles have trickled 'under' in 24 of 33 at home during Weeks 5-9, but they have topped the 'total' in 13 of 16 as underdogs.

RAVENS (4-3, 1-6) at STEELERS (5-2 SU&ATS)
The visiting team is 10-5-1 ATS in this AFC-North rivalry. Pittsburgh is 16-6 as favorites of 3 Â½ to 9 Â½-points. The Steelers have 'covered' 11 of their last 13 at home under the Monday night lights and five straight with revenge. Baltimore has cashed four straight against Pittsburgh and won three of four SU. The Ravens are 18-5 off an upset loss as favorites and 10-5 ATS on the road after scoring 14 points or less. However, they have dropped 16 of 23, both SU and ATS on the road. The Steelers have topped the number in 15 of 18 as home favorites and in 12 of 13 at home against conference rivals. Conversely, Baltimore has ducked 'under' in 19 of 27 against conference foes and in 22 of 32 on grass.

More Patriots Vs Colts

2007-11-01T11:59:00.000-07:00

Pats VS Colts Take Two

As the hype commences in earnest for the true NFL Game of the Century, I wonder what was happened to Bill Belichick. If Belichick doesn’t care what a Hall of Fame coach like Joe Gibbs thinks in running up the score on his team, he’s not going to care what I or anyone else thinks. Still I question the motives of a man who gives the appearance he is now bigger then the game.

Being caught spying with cameras only confirmed what many others either knew or believed for the last several years about a Belichick coached team. Since being punished, Bill the Bully has made a point to go out of his way to not only defeat opponents but embarrass them. His obsession with perfection is well known and for someone to be that intent on seeking such high levels of performance can not be faulted. What seems clear, Bruising Bill is bitter and he wants to teach the world a lesson.

The argument of running up the score has different perspectives. When Bobby Bowden and Lou Holtz were a couple of young head coaches working there way up, Bowden had a superior team to Holtz’s and delivered a Chris Fowler “woodshed” job. The two coaches knew each other as they were moving up the ranks and Holtz was slightly chafed and asked Bowden why he didn’t call off the dogs so to speak. Bowden’s answer was something like this, “It’s not my job to help you get better players that can compete with mine, that’s your job.” Holtz said it was a lesson he never forgot. Another that comes to mind is former Hall of Fame quarterback John Brodie used to be the lead analyst for NBC for the AFC contests and was asked be legendary broadcaster Curt Gowdy about Kansas City running up the score at home against the Oakland Raiders when they were at the pinnacle of there success. Brodie responded “You know Curt; the Chiefs should score all the points they want and have a good time. The only thing they should remember, there is always another game, and do what you have to do.”

What’s really odd about New England’s behavior is it seems so contrarian to owner Robert Kraft public perception. Kraft has an every man quality about him and wants to win in what he has cultivate as the right way. He has never come across as a marauder. New England awesome display this season has finally got the oddsmakers attention, bleeding money from the public incessantly pounding the Pats. For years I wondered how despite winning three Super Bowls this decade, most Patriots games have not had the appearance of being weighted heavily. Think about it, the Yankees, Red Sox, and San Antonio Spurs all are shaded towards public perception, decreasing value. I asked John Salerno from LeRoy’s Sportsbook in Las Vegas (63 Nevada outlets), about why until this season New England seemed to lack the panache other public teams have had. “Over the last several seasons, the Patriots have not been wagered on significantly more than other NFL teams. That has changed this season with how they continue to cover spreads.”

One last point on Belichick. He has been around football long enough and knows what he has in terms of talent. If by chance his Patriots were to go undefeated and win the Super Bowl, wouldn’t the legacy of a gracious winner make more sense, as he seems driven to be known as the greatest coach of all-time? New England sadly seems to have gone the route of out of control corporate leaders who believe they are so powerful they are above the rules that govern them.As Steve Young said on Monday Night Countdown, "This is the best team (New England) I have seen in over 10 years, do it with a little class."

It’s a good thing Chicago discovered quarterback Rex Grossman was taking them down and giving the Bears the best chance to win. All those bad passes he was throwing into tight coverage and being intercepted really worked to the detriment of the team. Thank goodness Bears fans got what they wanted Brian Griese. Isn’t it hilarious how players today just throw just throw out “guaranteed win” and lose games.

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At last count St. Louis was up to three by my accounting, with the end result less than desirable. This used to mean something when an athlete would say something like this, these days it is taken with the same seriousness as most anything Jesse Jackson has to offer.

It’s time for Carolina and Tampa Bay to officially become nervous as New Orleans Saints are marching towards first place in the NFC South. Drew Brees is like Austin Powers, he’s found his Mojo (in a manner of speaking) and the Saints offense is clicking again. Reggie Bush might not last 12 years as an every down back, yet you have to be impressed with his toughness as a runner. He unquestionably has led to the Saints confidence turnaround.

Tasty Tidbits – Last week introduced yards per point statistic that was winning against the spread at a remarkable clip. The top five Play On teams held steady and are wallet stuffing 28-9, 75.6 percent and can be found under NFL banner line at Team Statistics page. The Play Against are nearly as good, with powerful 23-11, 67.6 percent record….Here is a system to watch for the rest of the season that has a proven track record. Play On home teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, playing a team with a winning record. This system is a rock solid 16-4, 80 percent as this time over the last five NFL seasons and will have several opportunities with good to better then average teams not taking terrible clubs seriously…. All NFL teams off a road dog win have fallen to 6-9-1, 40 percent against the spread in next game including 1-6 the last five weeks….As all teams work diligently to force turnovers, in 2007 creating too many has been a bad thing the next week. Of the teams that have forced five or more turnovers in a game, only one has covered against the number is next trip to the gridiron (1-5-1 ATS).

Patriots Vs Colts

2007-10-31T16:37:00.000-07:00

The preliminaries are over. Eight blowout wins in eight games.Now the New England Patriots are preparing for their main event. Their weekly chatter about how good the upcoming opponent is finally makes sense when they talk about the Indianapolis Colts.''They've won however many straight, won a championship last year,'' Patriots coach Bill Belichick said Monday. ''They haven't been beaten since then. They've won however many straight at home. That's more than anybody else can say. That would put them No. 1 in my book.''Other readers of the NFL scene might disagree.Yes, Indianapolis has won 11 straight at home and 12 in a row overall. That includes the 38-34 win over New England in the AFC championship game, the last time the Patriots lost.This season, though, the Patriots (8-0) have been the best. Why else would they be favored by 5 1/2 points next Sunday against the Super Bowl champions, who are 7-0 and playing at home?One reason: Tom Brady, who has thrown 30 touchdowns and two interceptions and is on target to shatter NFL single-season records for scoring passes and passer rating.Another: Mike Vrabel, who forced three fumbles by quarterback Jason Campbell that led to 17 points in Sunday's 52-7 rout of the Washington Redskins.And there's Belichick, who has orchestrated it all, from the 41.4 points per game to the party line his players parrot when they downplay their own amazing accomplishments.''We just have to continue to get better,'' wide receiver Donte' Stallworth said. ''That's the one thing that Bill preaches all the time is correct your mistakes and make sure that they don't pile on and you make more and more mistakes as the weeks go on.''The win over the Redskins was the most lopsided in the NFL this season. Belichick might prefer to dwell on the touchdown with 3 minutes left that ruined the shutout.Where most people see Brady's 29 completions, Belichick might focus on the nine passes that fell incomplete Sunday.There was more:''Four false starts on offense isn't exactly what we're looking for,'' Belichick said. ''We're still trying to get our return game going. Defensively, we had our moments there. (The) two-minute drive at the end of the half, the end of the game, we could have played better.''And more:''We were fortunate,'' he added. ''We got some good breaks. We've had strip-sacks before and the ball bounces right back into the quarterback's hands. Yesterday we had one, Rosie (Colvin) turned around, wasn't even looking at the quarterback and the ball bounced right up into his hand for a touchdown.''Such problems.If he shows his players tape of last year's AFC title game, he'll have some real evidence.The Patriots were seemingly on their way to their fourth Super Bowl in six seasons with a 21-3 lead when they scored with 9:25 left in the second quarter. They were still in front at halftime, 21-6. But they were outgained by a more than 2-to-1 in the second half and lost 38-34.''That film will definitely come up. I can tell you that,'' Patriots defensive end Ty Warren said.The teams, though, have made many changes since then. New England's turnover was greater with the addition of wide receivers Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Stallworth and linebacker Adalius Thomas.So last year's playoff game will be just a small part of the preparation.''We'll mainly watch what they've been doing this year,'' Warren said. ''What we can't do is fall into the trap like we did with Indy in the playoffs where we jumped out in the first half, like what we did in Miami last week, and then (the Colts) won the second half and ended up winning the game.''The Patriots beat the Dolphins 49-28, but were upset that they squandered part of a 42-7 lead. They made sure they didn't let up against the Redskins.Leading 38-0, Brady threw a touchdown pass to Welker. On their next possession, backup quarterback Matt Cassel kept throwing then ran for a 15-yard touchdown.Against Peyton Manning and the Colts, the NFL's third-highest scoring team, the Patriots might have to keep piling on the points.''Our offense is always trying to score points,'' Belichick said. ''Why else would they go out on the field?''

GET THE BEST LINE ON THE GAME HERE!

Selection later in the week!

Week 8 Angles

2007-10-27T13:55:00.000-07:00

New England (7-0 SU&ATS) crushed Miami last week for its seventh straight victory, both straight up and against the spread. The Patriots thus became the ninth team in the last 10 years to cash as many as seven games in a row. It doesn't require a long memory to recall the last two teams to accomplish this relatively rare feat: Buffalo and Tennessee rewarded its loyal supporters seven straight times last year.
Should New England get the money this Sunday when it hosts Washington (3-3, 3-2-1) , it would become the third team in the past 10 seasons to get the green in eight straight games, joining Pittsburgh and San Diego, who both turned the trick in 2004. The Philadelphia Eagles have the longest regular-season spread run of late, getting the cheddar in nine straight games in 2004.
The Patriots have 'covered' their last eight games in October and they are 11-1 ATS off a double-digit division win.
New England has been on the high side in six of seven games while averaging 39.9 points. However, the potent Pats have been on the low side in 23 of 33 games following a two-game road trip. They have also slipped 'under' in 12 of 16 when hosting an NFC team and in 17 of 23 off a SU road win versus a division foe.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 8 menu appear below.

BROWNS (3-3, 4-2) at RAMS (0-7 SU&ATS)
St. Louis has lost and failed in its first seven tries and is 0-5 as dogs this year and 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home. However, there are signs that skid could end. The Rams are 20-6 ATS at home off a division game and they have cashed at a 22-12-1 clip when hosting AFC teams. Conversely, Cleveland is 5-9-1 ATS on the road of late against NFC foes and 5-13-1 ATS coming off a SU win. The Browns have 'covered' 17 of 21 on the road when the total was 40 or more. Cleveland has zipped 'over' at a 5-0 clip while St. Louis has knuckled 'under' in five of six tries. The Browns have been on the low side in 16 of 19 when playing in domed stadiums and in 18 of 26 against a non-division opponent. The Rams have eclipsed the 'total' in 15 of 23 as non-conference dogs.

LIONS (4-2, 3-2-1) at BEARS (3-4, 2-5)
Chicago looks for revenge after losing the initial series meeting at Ford Field, 37-27. The series short-ender has cashed at an 11-4-1 clip. Detroit is 17-37 ATS on the road off a win and it is 1-8 as road pups of seven points or less. The Bears are 11-6-2 ATS versus division opponents. They have zipped 'over' in 15 of 19 as favorites and 11 of 13 as home chalk. The Lions have ducked 'under' in 15 of 23 as division road dogs.

COLTS (6-0, 4-1-1) at PANTHERS (4-2 SU&ATS)
Indianapolis must avoid looking ahead to next week's titanic tussle with New England. The Colts are 17-5-1 ATS on the road outside their division. They have also 'covered' 10 of 13 off a division road contest. Carolina is just 2-9-1 in its last dozen home games. However, the Panthers have 'covered' at a torrid 24-5-1 clip as underdogs. The defending champs have been on the high side at a 20-11-1 pace on the road when facing a non-division foe. Carolina has headed in the opposite direction in 13 of 17 after winning by 14 points or more and in 18 of 27 after yielding 10 points or less.

GIANTS (5-2 SU&ATS) versus DOLPHINS (0-7, 1-4-2) at London
The New York Giants have cashed five straight this year and seven straight in October. They are also 12-6 ATS prior to their bye week. Miami is 1-11 ATS during the first half of the past two seasons and it is 0-6 ATS after facing New England. The winless Dolphins have 'covered' nine of 11 as dogs of more than six points and at a 7-3-1 clip as short-enders when facing an NFC foe. New York has zipped 'over' in 14 of 21 games as a non-conference favorite. Miami has ducked 'under' in seven of nine as double-digit dogs.

RAIDERS (2-4 SU&ATS) at TITANS (4-2 SU&ATS)
Oakland is 19-10 as road dogs after two SU losses. However, the Raiders are 5-15 ATS after losing by three points or less and 2-14-1 ATS after losing SU as favorites. Tennessee has failed to get the cash in 20 of 28 as favorites of 3 1/2 to seven points. The Titans are also 2-9-1 ATS after winning by three points or less and 2-11 ATS after scoring 28 points or more. Oakland has trickled 'under' in 17 of 19 on the road when facing teams with a winning record and in 13 of 15 on the highway after the first month of the season. Tennessee has topped the 'total' at a 20-8-1 clip at LP Field.

EAGLES (2-4 SU&ATS) at VIKINGS (2-4, 2-2-2)
Philadelphia is 25-12 ATS against NFC-North opposition and 14-9 ATS on the road as favorites against conference opponents. The Eagles have also cashed at a 21-13-1 clip when playing under domes. Minnesota has cashed 20 of 29 as home pups. The Vikings have dipped 'under' in 23 of 32 on the heels of a two-game trip. Philadelphia has been on the low side in 10 of 13 as a non-division road favorite.

STEELERS (4-2 SU&ATS) at BENGALS (2-4, 2-3-1)
Pittsburgh has won 13 of its last 16 at Cincinnati (12-4 ATS). The Steelers are also 18-6-2 ATS versus division foes on the road. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS at home in October off a SU win. They have cashed 15 of 18 when playing their second division game at Paul Brown Stadium. The home team has failed to cash in nine of the past 10 series showdowns. Pittsburgh has slipped 'under' in 13 of 17 on the road after losing SU as favorites. Cincinnati has topped the 'total' in 25 of 36 as division home dogs.

BILLS (2-4, 4-2) at JETS (1-6, 1-5-1)
Buffalo has 'covered' three straight and 11 of its last 15, though it has come up short in its last three on the road. The Bills are 4-15 ATS away from home after cashing three of four. They have 'covered' six of eight division road tests. The New York Jets have cashed 10 of 15 series meetings at The Meadowlands and five of seven clashes overall. The Jets are 4-13-1 ATS after allowing 28 points or more. Four of the last five series encounters have zipped 'over.' New York has eclipsed the number in eight of nine at home when it was between 35 1/2 and 38.

TEXANS (3-4, 2-4-1) at CHARGERS (3-3 SU&ATS)
Houston is 16-6 ATS after losing by 10 points or less and 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Texans are 12-21-1 ATS when facing a non-division foe and just 4-13 as non-division dogs of three points or more. San Diego is 13-6 ATS off a double-digit division win. The SU winner is 8-0 ATS when Houston faces an AFC-West opponent. The Texans have gone 'under' in 18 of 29 as road dogs.

JAGUARS (4-2, 3-3) at TAMPA BAY (4-3 SU&ATS)
Jacksonville is 22-10-1 outside its division while Tampa Bay is 31-16-2 at home against non-division opponents. The Bucs have been on the low side at a 36-13-1 pace at home when facing teams outside their division.

SAINTS (2-4, 1-5) at 49ERS (2-4, 2-3-1)
New Orleans has lost eight of its last 10 at San Francisco, but cashed seven of 10. The Saints are 16-5 ATS off a home win versus a division rival. The 49ers are 2-7 ATS in Game 8. Seven of the past 10 series scrapes at San Francisco have been on the high side.

PACKERS (4-2 SU&ATS) at BRONCOS (1-5 SU&ATS)
Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS versus AFC foes. Denver has cashed nine of 12 after scoring 28 points or more. The Broncos are 5-15 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 1-9 ATS at home before playing back-to-back road games. They have zipped 'over' in 24 of 36 as favorites against NFC opposition and at a 20-5-1 clip as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or less.

Monday Night Football

2007-10-22T17:03:00.000-07:00

Jacksonville +3

The home dog angle on Monday night is something I covet (19-8-2 ATS,L29 70.3%) but you have to be careful on the team. Last week the Falcons showed that it doesn’t always matter if you are the home team. This week it will matter. The Jacksonville M.O. has been clearly identified. The Jaguars will run the ball behind running backs Fred Taylor and electric Maurice Jones-Drew. The duo is averaging 154 yards a game on the ground against defenses that have allowed 30 yards less per game. The 4.8 yards per carry is among the best in the league against a much improved Indianapolis run defense. David Garrard is playing with the calm of a quarterback, who is not filling in for someone else, rather as one who earned the job and is in control of the situation. The Colts want revenge but defense wins ballgames and the Jags have a superb defense and out weighs the Colts offensive line. I do not think it will be a blowout and thin it will be close so I will take the points.

Trends:
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games21-17 over the last 10 seasons. ( 55.3% 0.0 units )0-3 this year. ( 0.0% 0.0 units )

When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as a Home team - After a conference game - Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 15-3-1ATS

When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - Coming off a win on grass they are 24-15-4ATS

When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as Home team as a Underdog - Playing on grass surface - Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game they are 7-4-1 ATS

NFL Week 7

2007-10-21T08:23:00.000-07:00

This week the Super Seven looks for the third consecutive winning week and to finish above .500 on the week.

7) Buffalo +3
When did the Ravens become good enough to be a road favorite? The Bills made news because they want to ask for permission to play football in Canada. The fan base is made up of 15,000 Canadians that will show up and support the Bills to try and get the team across the border. Crazy fan base and good home dog equals disaster for the Ravens. Baltimore has struggled on the road, failing to 'cover' its last six as favorites and dropping 15 of 22 on the highway, both SU and ATS. The Ravens are 2-9 ATS after allowing less than seven points as well. Buffalo is 8-3-2 as home dogs of three points or more when facing a non-division opponent.

6) Texans +1.5
This quite simply put is the wrong line on this game as the Texans should be favored by at least three even if Vince Young was playing. The Texans are 8-4-1 ATS at home against a division foe and have a better defense and a solid offense to get the win over the Titans on Sunday.

5) Jets +7
For the Jets Quarterback Chad Pennington it is now and never and another loss will most likely see him on the bench and maybe his tenure with the Jets will be over. The Jets have played just well enough to lose this year but are in it for most of the game. This week they get a defenseless Bengals team that is still highly over rated by the lines maker.

4) Lions -2
The Lions will have to get back on the winning track if they want to reach that ten win plateau that was promised at the start of the season. The Bucs will have a tough team keeping on defense on the home turf of the Lions. The Bucs are 3-17 ATS on the road against non-division foes and 3-15 ATS on the highway in October off a SU win. They have also dropped nine of 13 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.

3) Eagles -5
The Bears defense was exposed last weekend by Adrian Peterson and you have to believe that the Eagles were taking notes. The Eagles are quietly sneaking up in the division and this win becomes pivotal keeping up with the other teams in division. Philadelphia has prospered against teams from the NFC-North (25-11 ATS). The Eagles are also 14-8 ATS at home off a SU and ATS win and 17-9-2 at home after allowing 10 points or less. Chicago is 11-24-2 after losing SU as favorites

2) Denver +3.5
Denver is miserable and is already in panic mode. IN a game that was supposed to be a battle for the division the Broncos were hammered by the Chargers and then had a week to think about it. Shanahan will have his team ready and could sneak out the win at home in prime time. The Broncos have excelled in two spots, home underdogs and off a bye week. The Steelers are just 6-17-1 as non-division favorites on the highway. The Broncos are 15-4 ATS off a bye and they have cashed at a 15-8-2 pace off a SU loss to a division rival. They are also 27-14-1 as underdogs.

1) Jacksonville +3 & Over 44.5
Since this is the Super Seven and it is week seven I wanted to add a bonus eighth play and make sure it was on Monday night. This is the Jaguars Super Bowl and if there is ever a team that plays Peyton Manning and the Colts well it’s the Jags. Jacksonville is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 confrontations with Indianapolis. The Jaguars are an imposing 17-4-1 as underdogs and they have cashed 21 of 28 at home off a division win. Five of the last six encounters at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium have stormed 'over.' This is a shoot out and the home team wins in the end.

Monday night Football

2007-10-15T15:08:00.000-07:00

Monday Night Football

This game stinks tonight and everyone knows it or thinks it, so why the low line? The Falcons have shown time and time again that this season is not about winning, but rebuilding with a new coach. This team has fought with each other and been dismantled and separated all year. It shows as the line is rising as it opened at about 3.5 and is now above in 5 in some places. Harrington was benched but he will be back tonight for the start and the Falcons have two big tackles that will miss tonight’s game.
The only reason for this line being so small is because they are playing on Monday Night, in the past (see last week) home dogs have played well under the Monday Night Lights. The problem is the records will show you that both teams do not play well on Monday night, so let’s forget the babble and go with my plays tonight because I love this game, so much so that I have five plays in this game.

Game: Atlanta +5
Under 44

First Halves: Atl +3 first half
Under 21.5 f/h

Parlay: Atl +5
Under 44

The game plan is simple for the Falcons, play a two tight end set and get maximum protection in for Harrington. Look for Harrington to revert to 2-3 step drops and get the passes out quickly. The Giants ran 39 times last week and that allowed for a well controlled tempo game. They will do this again and set up the run against the birds. What this will do is allow for clock control and avoid a huge blowout in this game keeping it close.

Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY GiantsThe total has gone UNDER in 11 of Atlanta's last 14 games Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY GiantsAtlanta is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Under is 22-6 in Falcons last 28 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 11-3 in Falcons last 14 games overall.
Under is 7-2 in Falcons last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 7-2 in Falcons last 9 vs. NFC.
Under is 40-12-2 in Falcons last 54 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

When NEW YORK GIANTS team played as Road team as a Favorite - During Week 4 to 8 - After a non division game - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a win on turf they are 3-7 ATS

When NEW YORK GIANTS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Favorite - Before a non division game - Coming off a Home win the under is 11-2

When ANY NFL Team played as a Road team - During Week 4 to 8 - Coming off a win on turf(NYG) the under is 100-65-2

When ATLANTA FALCONS team played as Home team as a Underdog - Playing in dome surface - Coming off a 4-7 point loss they are 10-5 ATS

When ATLANTA FALCONS team played as a Home team - Total is between 41.5 to 44 - Allowed 14 - 21 AGAINST in their last game the under is 11-3

When ANY NFL Team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - Playing in dome surface - Scored 13 points or less FOR in their last game they are 63-41-3 (ATL)

Monday Night Football Dallas @ Buffalo

2007-10-08T13:03:00.000-07:00

I am going to start this game off by looking at the consensus numbers. I use consensus numbers as part of my handicapping process but they are never a primary tool. The theory with consensus is simple bet against the teams the public are betting on because more than likely the public will lose. This is not always the case which is why I don’t make it a major tool.

Tonight’s consensus as of now:
69% are on Dallas
65% are on the over

Food for thought, if you went against every team that had a 60% or more following you would have gone 5-1.

GET THE BEST LINE FOR TONIGHT'S GAME HERE

Pure Numbers: Some handicappers overlook pure numbers and I think that could be a crucial mistake. Make sure to look at defensive numbers and turnovers and penalties. Dallas numbers look very nice punctuated by a 4-0 ATS the mark, but look at the teams they have played. Giants, Miami, the Bears and the Rams, two of these teams have yet to win a game so you would expect to take the nice numbers that Dallas shows with a grain of salt. Dallas is second only to the Baltimore Ravens in total penalties (32) and penalty yards (266). The numbers for the Cowboys’ run defense are respectable only because opponents trail by three scores in the third quarter and have to abandon the ground game. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is concerned. Why else would he bring in Tank Johnson to play nose tackle, a position unfamiliar to him? The Bills however are not the great themselves ranking last in or close to it in defensive categories.

Team reports: It is important to try and get into the psyche of the players and the teams as they prepare for the game, for that I look at fan sites and local newspapers and try to sift through the mediocre stuff and find the meat if there is any. The first thing that I found is the obvious the Bills are at home on a Monday night for the first time in a long time. When it comes to the starting QB you get the usual rhetoric from the coach: “Trent’s the guy playing this week, and we hope he does an unbelievable job and he gives us a chance to win the game,” said Bills coach Dick Jauron. “And then we’ll see what happens.” The truth of the matter is that this is Edwards team now and he played well against the Jets, if he does it again tonight the job will be his all year. The one great thing is that he is starting to get his players to believe in him. “Trent Edwards did a good job of dishing the ball out and finding the open guy,” said receiver Roscoe Parrish. “That’s something he needs to continue to do, have faith in getting the ball in guys’ hands. We know we’re going to have to score some points.” The game plan will be to set up the pass with running Lynch, which could work considering Williams likes to cheat on the run and running between tackles will eat the clock and have Williams biting and that will open the Dallas secondary up to slants and deep outs. In the Dallas papers there is plenty of talk about the record setting pace the team is on offensively and of course next week’s game against the Patriots. I am not sold on them looking past this game tonight, but I don’t see them giving the Bills too much respect either.

Trends: When looking at trends I like to find trends that are evident to the games of late and that matter in tonight’s meeting. Dallas is 2-12 ATS off a win by 28+ points and Buffalo is 24-7 ATS off a win by 3 points or less. The Bills are 9-3 ATS as home dogs in non conference play. The Cowboys are 5-15 ATS away vs the AFC and cold be looking ahead to this Patriot game. Super Trends: When ANY NFL Team played as a Home team - Before a conference game - During the month of October - During Week 4 to 8 - Scored 14 - 21 POINTS FOR in their last game - Coming off a 1 ATS win they are 22-11-1 ATS (Buffalo)When ANY NFL Team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Playing on Monday - Coming off a win - Coming off a Win over NFC West opponent they are 8-15 ATS (Dallas)

Overall: The Bills always play tough at home which was proven when they took the Broncos to the last second in week one and playing on Monday night will make this game even bigger. What everyone fails to notice because they score so many touch downs is that the Cowboys have a rookie kicker and he could feel the heat in National TV if he has to make a big kick. The home crowd will help and the Boys defense will have to work hard to keep Lynch at bay leaving the passing lanes open, and look for a special teams play by the Bills. If you have not figured it out by now I am on the home team.Total: I am not going to play the total tonight but if I did it would be the under. The Bills will look to keep the cowboys off the field as much as possible and control the clock and look at the weather. Multiple weather stations are forecasting a 30 percent chance of precipitation with a possibility of thunderstorms in the Buffalo area.

Buffalo +10.5 +100

NFL Notes and Picks

2007-10-07T08:42:00.000-07:00

NFL Today

Arizona at St. Louis (+3 ½)
St. Louis has lost its last two home games against Arizona after beating the Cardinals three straight times on its own field.

Atlanta at Tennessee (-9)
The Falcons have been outscored 37-10 in dropping their first two road games this season. They have not opened a year 0-3 away from home since losing their first six road games in 1996.

Carolina at New Orleans (-3)
David Carr and Steve Smith could have success against a New Orleans defense that has given up 239.0 passing yards per game - third-most in the conference.

Cleveland at New England (-16 ½)
New England has won three straight and five of the last six meetings against Cleveland. The Browns haven't won a road game against the Patriots since Oct. 25, 1992.

Detroit at Washington (-3 ½)
Detroit is 0-17 in Washington. This will be the first meeting between the Lions and Redskins since Nov. 7, 2004, when Detroit won 17-10 at home.

Jacksonville at Kansas City (+1)
The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 35-30 at home on Dec. 31, clinching a wild card spot when other outcomes swung in their favor. Larry Johnson had 138 yards rushing and three touchdowns. The Jaguars, however, have won four of the six all-time meetings between the teams.

Miami at Houston (-5 ½)
Houston has won its only two meetings with Miami, a one-point victory in 2003 and a two-point victory last season at home, Gary Kubiak's first NFL win.

N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants (-3 ½)
The Giants have won the last three meetings with the Jets and six of 10 all-time meetings. The Giants' last loss in the series came Oct. 31, 1993.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5 ½)
Seattle has won four of these teams' five regular-season meetings since 1993, but Pittsburgh has won eight straight home games against NFC opponents since a 33-21 defeat to St. Louis on Oct. 26, 2003. The Steelers have won their two home games this year by a combined 63-19.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-10)
The Bucs weren't good defensively in their last meeting with the Colts on Oct. 6, 2003, as Indianapolis trailed 28-7 in the fourth quarter before rallying to tie the score at 35 with 35 seconds left. The Colts went on to win 38-35 in overtime, with Manning finishing 34-of-47 for 386 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Baltimore at San Francisco (+3 ½)
These teams last met on Nov. 30, 2003 in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 44-6.

San Diego at Denver (-1)
San Diego always has a tough time on the road against the Broncos. The Chargers rallied from a 17-point deficit for a 35-27 victory in their last game in Denver on Nov. 19, but that win was their first one there since 2000.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3)
The Bears have won four of the last six meetings between the teams, including three straight at Lambeau Field.

Dallas at Buffalo (+10)
This will be the first meeting between the Bills and Cowboys since Nov. 9, 2003, when Dallas won 10-6 at home. The Cowboys are 4-3 against the Bills in the regular season.

Picks
San Diego +1
KC +2
Bears +3

NFL Week 4 Winners

2007-09-30T08:13:00.000-07:00

The NFL super seven finished up at another week at or around .500 and it would seem as something has to give and this week in preparation for week four the hot discussion is injuries. It was just announced today that Rudi Johnson will not play against the Patriots on Monday night and the mystery in Carolina on whether or not David Carr will make his first start is still up in the air. The best way to prepare for handicapping NFL games with injuries is to decide what type of impact the player that is hurt will have if they are out of the lineup. Certain players will have more of an impact if they miss the game than others. Look into what type of role they will play and if the backup is suitable to fill in where the starter leaves off.

Week One: 3-4
Week Two: 3-3-1
Week Three: 3-4
Overall: 9-11-1

7) Vikings +2The Packers are in for a shock this week when they head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in a divisional match up. The Vikings rushing attack will give the Packers defense fits and the Vikings have revenge for being swept in the season series last year. The Vikings have won 20 of 28 as home dogs and are always solid at home. Minnesota has also cashed nine off 11 when playing its second game at home, including its last four as underdogs. In addition, the Vikings are 6-0 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight-up losses versus an opponent that's over .500. Vikings win outright.

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6) Rams +13 The Cowboys made a statement last week when they dismantled the vaunted Bears defense on national television. The Rams are in disarray having yet to cover and are plagued with injuries, but they are the pick in this one tonight. Leonard is a very suitable replacement for Jackson and the Rams need a win and will fight to the end in this one. The Cowboys weakness, if any, is on pass defense and the Rams can exploit this. The Cowboys are 8-16 as double-digit favorites and 4-9 ATS off a SU win as underdogs.

5) Arizona +6This will be a very interesting game for the Cardinals and head coach Whisenhunt as he faces his former team in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The cardinal’s defense is underrated and will be ready to attack. Whisenhunt was under attack by his former QB this week and will be ready to make him eat his words. The steelers are 1-7 as road favorites off a double-digit SU win and 6-16-1 as non-division away favorites.

4) 49ers +2These teams are headed in opposite directions then in years past. The 49ers are revamped but off a loss in a game when they needed to prove themselves which makes this game at home against a divisional rival. Seattle is 7-17 as road favorites and 3-12 on the highway when laying 3 1/2 points or less.

3) Buffalo +3.5The Bills are in desperate need of a win and now have no where to go but up and the good news is they get the jets this week. The Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss and 13-1 after playing New England. Buffalo has cashed five of its last seven against New York. The Jets a 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500. Look for the Bills to win outright and get the first win of the season.

2) Giants +3The giants join a list of divisional home dogs that will cash this weekend and have a solid shot of winning outright. Don’t be fooled by the Eagles performance last week it was against a very bad defense and they are hurting with injuries. Manning has gained control of the offense and the running game is back, the Giants win outright today and get back in the race.

1) San Diego -12.5The Chargers have imploded and are looking for answers as the QB and the head coach were under fire after losing to the Packers. The Chargers are better than they have played in the last two games and will take it out on the lowly KC Chiefs. The home team in this series is 7-1 ATS and the straight up winner is 21-3 ATS and I do not see the Chargers losing this one.

Week 4 NFL who is going to win!

2007-09-28T12:02:00.000-07:00

Underdog Research plays

This underdog research is important because this week there is nine home underdogs on the card. It is no secret that home underdogs can play well and make a profit but I wanted to come out with an angle for this week that had some out standing numbers. After all research is always great but if you can’t apply it to the games this week then why bother?

So I broke it down to even more strict parameters and found some great research plays for this week involving home dogs.

Research Play #1) Teams that are a home underdog in the last five years and coming off of a home loss are 36-21-4. This is an outstanding percentage but it gets better if this team was an underdog in that loss it then cashes at 26-12-2 ATS! That is 65% and this week this fits the Atlanta Falcons at home +4 against Houston.

GET THE BEST LINE HERE NOW!

Research Play #2) Play on a team as a three point or less home underdog against a divisional rival that is off back to back straight up losses in the last five years. The result is a 11-6-1 (61%) record. This week the play is on the Minnesota Vikings +2.5 over Green Bay.

GET THE BEST LINE HERE!

Grossman Benched!

2007-09-26T07:56:00.000-07:00

Rex Grossman reportedly will be benched by the Chicago Bears for Sunday's game at Detroit, with Brian Griese starting at quarterback.Citing unidentified sources, NFL.com, the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun-Times reported Tuesday that the beleaguered Grossman would sit when the Bears (1-2) visit the Lions (2-1).

Oddsmakers have listed the Bears as 2 1/2-point favorites for Sunday's game and the total is set at 45.

The Bears would not confirm that any decision has been made, saying only that coach Lovie Smith would be available for his regular Wednesday news conference.

Grossman threw three interceptions as the Bears fell to the Dallas Cowboys 34-10 on national TV on Sunday night. The following day, Smith, who usually gives Grossman full support, instead said: ''Will Rex Grossman start Sunday? Well, our evaluation process is going on right now, and if you come out to practice Wednesday, you'll have a better idea of who will be starting at all positions.''Grossman has struggled ever since February's Super Bowl, when he threw two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

This year, he ranks 23rd in the league with 500 yards, has a 45.2 rating and is 47-of-89 (52.8 percent) with a league-leading six interceptions and just one touchdown.Now in his fifth pro season, Grossman has been inconsistent as Chicago's starter, but he did get the team to the Super Bowl last season.

Griese, a 10-year veteran, was a Pro Bowl pick with Denver in 2000. He has passed for 16,564 yards, but has also been released three times - by the Broncos, Miami and Tampa Bay.''I have confidence in our entire football team,'' Smith said Monday. ''Brian is a part of that. After you have a loss like that, we all feel bad. We should.''

Week 4 Trends and Angles

2007-09-25T11:20:00.000-07:00

The Green Bay Packers (3-0, both SU and ATS) are the toast of the NFL once again after starting the season with three straight wins for the first time since 2001. QB Brett Favre will be looking to surpass Dan Marino as the career leader in touchdown passes Sunday when the Packers head to Minnesota (1-2, 1-1-1) for a NFC North division showdown.

The Vikings are underdogs at home against Green Bay for the first time since the 2002 season and they are desperate for a win to avoid failing three games off the pace in the division chase.
Green Bay will likely be the people's choice, but Minnesota has several factors in its favor. The Vikings have cashed nine of their last dozen against the Packers and the underdog in this storied rivalry is 16-1 in the last 17 encounters.

Minnesota has 'covered' 20 of 28 as home pups and 14 of 17 as short-enders at the Metrodome with revenge. Green Bay took both games versus the Vikings last season, prevailing as 5 1/2-point road dogs, 23-17, and as 3 1/2-point home favorites, 9-7.

Minnesota has also cashed nine off 11 when playing its second game at home, including its last four as underdogs. In addition, the Vikings are 6-0 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight-up losses versus an opponent that's over .500.

Green Bay has faltered at a 14-4-2 clip as road favorites when playing on turf.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 4 NFL schedule appear below.

RAIDERS (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at DOLPHINS (0-3 SU, 0-1-2 ATS)
Oakland snapped an 11-game losing skid by nipping Cleveland at home, 26-24. The Raiders now take aim at ending a 12-game road futility streak. Miami has faltered in eight of its last nine, both straight up and against the spread, as home favorites of 3 1/2 points or more. The Dolphins have also failed to cash 16 of 22 at home versus non-division foes. Oakland is 12-22 ATS on the road and 14-20 as short-enders on the highway. However, the Raiders have 'covered' 10 of 12 on the road before a bye and nine in a row off a SU win. Miami has won and 'covered' six straight against Oakland dating back to 1997.

TEXANS (2-1, 2-0-1) at FALCONS (0-3, 1-2)
Houston finds itself in the rare role of favorites. The Texans have come up short as the chalk in seven of 11 chances since the inception of the franchise in 2002. Houston is 3-7 ATS on the road against NFC foes. Atlanta has cashed eight off 11 as dogs coming off a SU loss. However, the Falcons are 3-15 ATS at home when facing teams with a winning record and they are 7-11-1 as dogs versus AFC competition. The Texans have tipped 'under' in 18 of 28 on the road. Atlanta has zipped 'over' in 13 of 18 as non-conference dogs.

RAVENS (2-1, 0-3) at BROWNS (1-2, 2-1)
Baltimore hasn't dropped four in a row ATS since Brian Billick took over in 1999. However, the dog in this AFC North rivalry has come away with the cash in eight of the last 11 encounters and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes. Cleveland has 'covered' three straight overall against the Ravens and three straight at home. The Browns are 3-10 as division dogs of less than seven points. They have cashed at a 16-6-1 clip after scoring 23 points or more. Baltimore has lost and failed in 14 of its last 20 road outings. Six of the past nine series scuffles have been on the low side. The Ravens have knuckled 'under' at a 19-7-1 rate in September. Cleveland has dipped 'under' at a 19-10-1 pace as home dogs of three points or more.

BEARS (1-2, 0-3) at LIONS (2-1, 1-1-1)
Chicago has now dropped six straight spread decisions dating back to 2006. The last time the defending NFC champs failed to get the green in four straight games in the same season was in 2002. Detroit will be looking to extend a streak that has seen the dog cash at a 10-4-1 pace in this series. The SU winner is also 27-5-2 ATS. The Bears are 4-9-2 as division road favorites and 11-32-2 ATS coming off a SU loss as the chalk. The Lions are 29-16 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more. Chicago has slipped below the 'total' in eight of 10 after bowing SU as a favorite. Detroit has ducked 'under' at an 11-4-1 clip in September.

RAMS (0-3, 0-3) at COWBOYS (3-0, 3-0)
Dallas should attract a lot of attention this week considering it has cashed three in a row and St. Louis has failed in three straight ATS. However, the Cowboys are 8-16 as double-digit favorites and 4-9 ATS off a SU win as underdogs. They have cashed seven of eight at home off back-to-back road games. The Rams are 9-26-2 ATS against non-division foes and 10-18 ATS on the highway when facing teams with a winning record. St. Louis has eclipsed the 'total' in 14 of 20 as double-digit dogs and in 13 of 20 on the road versus a non-division opponent.

JETS (1-2, 1-1-1) at BILLS (0-3, 1-2)
The New York Jets have stumbled in eight of their last nine as road favorites against Buffalo. However, the Jets have 'covered' at a 9-4-1 pace as away chalk overall. The Bills are 12-2 ATS off a SU division loss and 13-1 after playing New England. Buffalo has cashed five of its last seven against New York. The Jets a 3-9-1 ATS when facing teams that are under .500.

BUCS (2-1, 2-1) at PANTHERS (2-1, 2-1)
Tampa Bay hasn't handled prosperity very well. The Bucs are 2-11 ATS coming off back-to-back SU wins. Carolina has dominated this division rivalry, getting the green in eight of the last 11 meetings. However, the series dog has cashed in eight of 10 encounters. The Panthers are 3-9 ATS after a SU division road win and 1-6 as home favorites after allowing more than 17 points in September. They have also come up short in 13 of 16 as favorites of between four and seven points. Carolina has strayed below the number in three straight games as division home favorites. The Bucs have gone 'under' in 33 of 48 after allowing 10 points or less.

SEAHAWKS (1-2, 1-1-1) at 49ERS (2-1, 1-1-1)
Seattle is 7-17 as road favorites and 3-12 on the highway when laying 3 1/2 points or less. San Francisco is 8-15 as dogs after failing to cash as dogs and 6-10 ATS at home following a double-digit loss. Seattle had won six straight versus the 49ers (4-2 ATS) until losing and failing in both encounters last year. The 'under' is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.

STEELERS (3-0, 3-0) at CARDINALS (1-2, 2-0-1)
Pittsburgh has cashed four straight and nine of its last 11 dating back to 2006. The Steelers are 16-8-1 ATS off a double-digit win. However, they are 1-7 as road favorites off a double-digit SU win and 6-16-1 as non-division away favorites. Pittsburgh has 'covered' at a 13-2-1 clip as non-conference chalk overall. Arizona is 7-18 ATS at home in September and it has floundered in 10 of 12 as non-conference dogs of more than three points.

CHIEFS (1-2, 2-1) at CHARGERS (1-2, 1-2)
The home team has held the aces in the AFC West rivalry, getting the cheese at a 7-1-1 rate. The SU winner is 21-3-2 ATS. San Diego is 13-3 as home favorites in September. The Chargers have 'covered' 12 of 15 off a non-division game versus an opponent with revenge. Kansas City is 2-7 as division road dogs. The Chiefs have eclipsed the 'total' at a 21-13-1 clip as short-enders. However, San Diego has slipped 'under' in 14 of 20 as division home chalk.

EAGLES (1-2, 1-2) at GIANTS (1-2, 1-2)
Philadelphia has cashed six of its last eight against the New York Giants. The Eagles have prospered on the road against division foes, getting the money in 18 of 27. The Giants have cashed 29 of 44 after winning SU as underdogs. Nine of the last dozen series encounters have been on the low side. Philadelphia has ducked 'under' in seven of nine as division road favorites and New York has followed suit at a 10-2-1 rate as division home dogs. The Eagles have slipped 'under' in 11 of 14 after scoring 28 points or more.

PATRIOTS (3-0, 3-0) at BENGALS (1-2, 1-1-1)
Cincinnati would appear to have faint hope when it hosts New England, the hottest team on Planet NFL. However, the Bengals have 'covered' six of eight as dogs of six points or more and the Patriots are a dismal 4-17 ATS when playing their second road game of the season. New England is 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU wins and 20-5-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less. The Pats are also 9-1 ATS off a double-digit division win. Cincinnati is 15-32 ATS at home in September. The Bengals have failed to 'cover' seven of eight versus non-division opponents when playing on Monday.

More tools, odds, and trends found here!

Who will win Monday Night Football

2007-09-24T10:34:00.000-07:00

The New Orleans gruesome 0-2 start brings to mind William Shatner. Not for his Captain Kirk role on Star Trek, nor as the sex-crazed lawyer on Boston Legal. Instead for his role on VH1, “One hit wonders”.

Sean Payton was the next great genius coach coming down the pipeline last season, if he were to lose to Tennessee tonight in the home opener at the Super Dome; he might start to take on the look of Chumbawumba from 1997 for its one hit song “Tubthumper”.

New Orleans has been torched for 72 points in first two games and has been outscored by exactly 48 points. That might work in Buffalo; however they didn’t play in a conference championship game last season. “We’ve got to stay the course but play together,” Payton said in typical coach speak. “The big thing is that they [the players] don’t sense panic. Our job as coaches is to make them relax so they can just play.” One of the staff’s first jobs is get the ball more to Deuce McAllister, who has two less carries than Reggie Bush.

This is not a good development since the Deuce is the foundation of the offense. The more and better he runs the ball, the better the Saints offense is. He sets up all the other elements of the Saints game, allowing Payton to be creative in play-calling.

What has been most noticeable is the ease of which the Saints secondary has been torched, looking more like a five alarm fire giving up 11.5 yards per pass attempt. Every member of the defensive backfield has been pathetic, yet they have received no help from the players up front. New Orleans defenders have yet to register a single sack this season. The only good news is Tennessee prefers to transport the football by way of the running game.

The Titans are top rushing team in the NFL at 211 yards per game, at 5.1 yards per carry. The unlikely duo of Chris Brown and LenDale White is leading the way with Vince Young a wonderful supporting compliment. Young continues to show improvement as a passer, thou the fact remains he probably will never be a great thrower of the pigskin. What he is showing already in his young career is an ability to be competitive and win games.

That ability will carry any team a long way and help job security for a coach. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow also deserves a great deal of credit assembling game plans that work more efficiently with the talent on hand.

A large surprise for the Titans has been the play of the defense, holding opponents’ running games to 76 YPG and 3.8 yards a carry. A subtle but highly effective change has been moving defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch from the right side to the left end position, next to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. This gives coach Jeff Fisher great flexibility to run stunts with these two players and places Vanden Bosh in more one on one situations where he can really rush the passer. Ultimately this frees up linebacker Keith Bullock to make more plays at the point of attack.

New Orleans is a four point favorite at Bookmaker.com down from opening number of 5.5. Playing the Saints as a home favorite is as uncomfortable as listening to Right Said Fred one hit, “I’m Too Sexy”, with 3-10 ATS record the last three seasons. Tennessee is perfectly fitted for a game like this with 12-3 ATS record as an underdog the last couple of seasons.
With this being a Monday night contest, the Saints have the worst record in the history in the NFL at 7-15 (7-14-1 ATS). The Titans are not in the best spot either, since teams playing two Monday night games both on the road like Tennessee are 12-30-1 ATS.
The bye weeks start in Week 4 and each team will have one next weekend. From a system standpoint, this favors New Orleans because any team that allowed 28 or more points in last game and has a bye next is 14-5-1 ATS in this contest.
Kickoff is set for approximately 8:30 Eastern.

Selection: Titans +4

NFL Systems 2-0

2007-09-21T08:27:00.000-07:00

In my continuing series analyzing angles for each of the various weeks in the NFL season, I decided to look at the fortunes of teams that are 2-0 headed into Week 3 of the schedule. On average, there are just less than seven teams per season that win their opening two contests. There are 10 this year, and 15-year history shows that 27% of these teams will fall in Week 3. Will your team be one of them? Are they worth wagering on? If so, when are the best spots to either fade or follow these clubs? These are just some of the points I plan to reveal in my Week 3 unbeaten teams study.

Some of the most important concepts to understand about the unbeaten teams heading into their Week 3 games are: 1) Are they at home or on the road, 2) Are they playing an opponent that is also playing well or struggling, 3) Is the unbeaten team thrashing opponents or squeaking out games, and 4) Has the undefeated club won with offense, defense, or both so far?
I’ll reveal some very successful historical patterns that have formed for all four of those important concepts later, but for now, here are some of the basic records on 2-0 teams, based on where they are playing and the record of the opponent they are facing.

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams are 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS (64%)· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams are 12-10 SU & 14-8 ATS (64%)· 2-0 HOME teams facing 0-2 ROAD teams are 9-0 SU & 4-4-1 ATS (50%), with an average line of –11.4.· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams are 17-5 SU but just 9-13 ATS (41%).· In games matching unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams, the HOME teams hold a 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS (61%)

If you add up all the records of the trends noted just above, you’ll find that road teams cover the spread in 56% of games involving an undefeated team. This can be explained by the logic that the oddsmakers are counting on home-field advantage to make the difference in these higher profile games, thus giving the hosts a little extra respect on the pointspread. Think of it like this…if an unbeaten team is coming back home to play a game, public perception would typically tell you that the home team should win again. On the flip side, when said undefeated team hits the road at 2-0, the majority of the fan population would tend to believe that the chances of that team losing its game are good, particularly if it is the teams’ first road game.

With 56% of these games being won ATS by road teams, and three of our basic five angles producing spread success rates of better than 60%, it afforded me the opportunity to apply numerous tighteners to the trends, thus generating even higher winning percentages. The best results from that tightening process are listed below. Use these trends to apply to your own handicapping routine on Sunday and Monday night.

· 2-0 HOME teams taking on 0-2 ROAD teams, when favored by 10 points or less, are 4-0 SU & ATS (100%).Analysis: Oddsmakers clearly aren’t giving enough consideration to the momentum generated by the unbeaten and winless teams in the first two weeks. Games that could be accompanied by double-digit spreads are not and home teams have capitalized at a 4-0 clip.Plays for ’07: WASHINGTON

· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams, when favored by 6 points or less, are just 3-8 ATS (27%).Analysis: There seems to be a good reason that these 2-0 hosts are only favored by small margins over their 1-1 opponents. Most likely, these home teams either aren’t as good as their 2-0 start, or their road opponent might have lost one of its two games either in heartbreaking fashion or to another elite club. In any case, it is the road teams that hold the edge in this scenario.Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY, DENVER

· In battles between unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 5-1 SU & ATS (100%) when favored by 5-points or more.Analysis: Exactly the opposite of the situation described just above. In this case, it is the 2-0 road team that may be undeserving of its undefeated record. Oddsmakers have perceptively picked up on it, installing them as sizeable underdogs for the showdown. These games clearly turn out to be better on paper than on the field, with the hosts winning five of six games by an average score of 24.8-9.5. With such a low total score for the road teams in these games, keep an eye on the UNDERs as well.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH

· The HOME team holds a 2-0 SU & ATS (100%) edge in Week 3 showdowns between undefeated inter-conference opponents.Analysis: Not only do the hosts hold an edge in games with undefeated teams and large pointspreads, they also receive a boost from being at hoe again opponents from the opposite conference. Unfamiliarity would figure to be the reason behind this, as the road teams are putting their undefeated marks on the line against teams they know little about.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH ·

In divisional showdowns between unbeaten teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 6-4 & ATS (60%).Analysis: I’m a firm believer that home field advantage means the most in division games, since it is that extra edge that teams rely on when game plans are well known. These teams are well familiar with one another, so scheming doesn’t have as much of an impact as simple execution and motivation. Home field advantage is one of the more prominent motivating factors.Plays for ’07: HOUSTON

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS (83%).Analysis: Albeit due to the desperation level of the home team, or the lack of respect generated by the visitors in their opening two wins, oddsmakers just don’t see enough sometimes to make these unbeaten road teams favorites in the Week 3 game. Clearly that has been a mistake. With an 83% ATS success rate in the last 15 seasons, digging out these teams is well worth the effort if any qualify.Plays for ’07: DETROIT

· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS (77%).Analysis: The success rate for unbeaten road teams playing at 1-1 home opponents is even better than that against winless foes. With an 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS record, it has been nearly automatic that these road teams win outright. Keep a close eye on the NFL Week 3 schedule in 2007, since prior to the second week action, there were nine teams that won on opening weekend that will be on the road for these Sunday and Monday games.Plays for ’07: DALLAS

· 2-0 HOME teams are 13-8 ATS (62%) when the wagering action coming in moves the line more in their favor.Analysis: If a home team’s line moves from –6 to –7 in a given week, it is assumed that the public, or sharps in some cases, is backing them enough for oddsmakers to move the line in hopes of drawing action the other way. When the so-called betting public backs these home undefeated teams in Week 3, they beat the number at a 13-8 rate.Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams are just 9-11 ATS (45%) when the wagering action favors the road teams.Analysis: The betting public seems to have a good feel for these undefeated home team games in Week 3, beating the books on both sides of the ledger. The bottom line is this…if undefeated home teams are playing in Week 3, history says to follow the money.Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY

· In games concerning 2-0 ROAD teams, when the betting public backs the home team, the road clubs are 8-9 ATS. When the line move favors the road team, the visitors are 9-11 ATS.Analysis: While not overly successful records, these trends would suggest that any type of line move involving games with 2-0 road teams would indicate to play on the hosts. If I could come up with any type of reasonable explanation for it I would. Next…Plays for ’07: WATCH LINE MOVES

· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing more than 15 PPG in their first two contests are 13-5 ATS (72%) in their Week 3 games.Analysis: This trend is somewhat contrarian in nature, but come to think of it, most good systems are too. Undefeated road teams allowing more than 15 PPG are at the bottom end of the defensive scale. Oddsmakers don’t hold them in the same regard as they do those teams that won with early defensive domination. Still, they are unbeaten and tend to stay so after this game.Plays for ’07: DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO

· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing less than 10 PPG in their first two contests are just 7-7 ATS (50%) in their Week 3 games.Analysis: While this is not a trend that will give you any type of advantage over “the man”, I listed it simply so that you could see the difference in the success rates of the strong defensive teams and the rest. The trend above was 13-5 ATS, this one is just 7-7 ATS. In which one do think oddsmakers are giving more credit to the unbeaten road team?Plays for ’07: NONE

· 2-0 ROAD teams scoring more than 25 PPG in their first two contests are 10-4 ATS (71%) as underdogs in Week 3.Analysis: In my own handicapping routine, I love looking for underdogs that can score points. They are the most-lively type of underdogs, the kind that can keep coming at the favorites, regardless of how far they are behind. If you’re lucky enough to pick up on an undefeated road dog this weekend, grab it. There is on average about one opportunity per season.Plays for ’07: DALLAS, INDIANAPOLIS, DETROIT

· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by less than 3 PPG are just 6-6 SU & 4-7 ATS (36%) in Week 3.Analysis: Teams winning their games by less than a field goal margin per contest are living on the edge. In Week 3, they fall off that edge, at least in terms of the pointspread, converting just 36% of the time. Half of the 12 home teams coming into this scenario lost their games outright as well.Plays for ’07: AGAINST DENVER

· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 8-4 SU but just 4-8 ATS (33%) in Week 3.Analysis: This is the classic example of what makes the NFL tough to beat on a consistent basis. A trap of all traps, even the most dominant teams of the season’s first two weeks playing at home don’t turn out to be solid bets in Week 3. What makes matters worse is that more often than not, these teams win the games on the scoreboard but demonstrate little regard for their backers’ betting tickets.Plays for ’07: AGAINST PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 0-2 ATS when playing as double-digit favorites, and 0-4 ATS as favorites of less than 4 points.Analysis: These trends are also a couple traps that bettors tend to fall for. In my opinion, the double-digit favorite in the early going can be a poison pill in the NFL. In a league filled with parity, betting such lines early in the season just doesn’t make a lot of sense. On the other side of the coin, 2-0 home teams when playing as small favorites don’t make for good bets either. Remember, there is a reason they aren’t favored by a larger number.Plays for ’07: AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

· 2-0 HOME teams scoring more than 33 PPG are 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in Week 3, regardless of the opponent.Analysis: In saving the best for last, I’ve focused in on the truly elite teams in the early going. These are the teams putting up the big numbers in the first two weeks and looking truly “Super”, as in Super Bowl bound. A Week 3 game at home for these prolific offensive teams has been nearly automatic, so be sure to check the NFL team stats after the Week 2 games. Perhaps New England, hosting Buffalo, might qualify?Plays for ’07: NEW ENGLAND

Entire Article HERE

NFL Week 3 First Glance

2007-09-20T06:18:00.000-07:00

Go to Oddsmaker.com for your chance to win big money!

Arizona at Baltimore (-9)
Why Cardinals cover: Both of Arizona’s first two games were decided by three points. Edgerrin James is running like the Edge of old (220 yards in two games). Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Why Ravens cover: Expected to have starting QB Steve McNair back from groin injury. Fourth-ranked defense only allowing 62 yards per game on the ground.
Total (35): Over is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight games.

Buffalo at New England (-17)
Why Bills cover: After destroying rivals New York in Week 1 and Super Bowl-hopeful San Diego last week, the Pats could be primed for a letdown against the 0-2 Bills, a game they might have a hard time getting excited about.

Why Patriots cover: Have been an offensive juggernaut so far forcing opponents to abandon their game plans and play from behind, something Buffalo doesn’t do well. The Bills’ biggest offensive threat, wideout Lee Evans, has 22 yards receiving to date.
Total (42): Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in New England.

Detroit at Philadelphia (-6 ½)

Why Lions cover: Get to play Philly coming off a short week after their loss to Washington on Monday night. Donovan McNabb’s comments this week that black quarterbacks face more criticism show that he could be feeling the heat from his poor play. Philadelphia fans will be relentless if he struggles early. Pro Bowl safety Brian Dawkins suffered a neck stinger and could be limited on game day.

Why Eagles cover: Nowhere to go but up after dropping first two games. Solid pass defense can contain Detroit’s star receivers and force the Lions to beat them on the ground, something offensive co-coordinator Mike Martz doesn’t like to do.

Total (44): Over is 8-2 in Detroit’s last 10 road games.

Indianapolis at Houston (+6)
Why Colts cover: Will want to bounce back after almost blowing a 13-point lead to the Titans on Sunday. With New England stealing the spotlight from the Super Bowl champs, expect the offense to come out firing. Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Why Texans cover: Started 2-0 for the first time in franchise history. Beat the Colts by a field goal in their final meeting last season. Will want to prove that they can challenge Indy for the AFC South crown. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall. Total (48): Under is 5-1 in Colts last six games overall.

Miami at N.Y. Jets (-3)
Why Dolphins cover: Running back Ronnie Brown torched the Jets for 237 yards and a score in their two meetings last season. A meeting with the league’s 22nd-ranked pass defense could spark Trent Green who has been plagued by inconsistency so far as a Dolphin.

Why Jets cover: Chad Pennington has won his last five starts against Miami and should be back under center after missing last week with a sprained ankle. The Dolphins’ running game has been non-existent, managing only 63.5 yards per game. Miami has only covered in four of their last 23 meetings with the Jets.
Total (35): Over is 10-3-1 in the Jets’ last 14 home games.

Minnesota at Kansas City (-3)
Why Vikings cover: Minnesota’s defense has 10 sacks through two games and should be able to feast on the immobile Damon Huard while 300 pound-plus run stoppers Kevin and Pat Williams clog up the middle limiting Larry Johnson’s room to run.

Why Chiefs cover: Vikings’ quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is coming off a loss to the Lions in which he was intercepted four times and could miss Week 3 with a groin injury. If he is out, Brooks Bollinger would get the nod for Minnesota. Kansas City is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Total: (33): Under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games and 4-1 in the Vikings’ last five.

San Diego at Green Bay (+4 ½)

Why Chargers cover: Have a lot to prove after an embarrassing 38-14 loss Sunday night at New England. Shawne Merriman and the Chargers’ 10th ranked pass defense could handcuff Brett Favre forcing the Packers to rely on a ground game that is still lacking an identity since Ahman Green landed in Houston. Could be one of those games that Favre tries to force the ball into double-coverage and gets picked off more than once.

Why Packers cover: Green Bay has won five of the last six meetings with San Diego. Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games while the Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five.
Total (43): Under is 4-1 in Packers’ last five home games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-9)
Why 49ers cover: The 2-0 Niners are brimming with confidence after beating division rivals in their first two games. They'll carry that momentum into Pittsburgh. Running back Frank Gore ran for two TDs on Sunday, just three days after the death of his mother and could be a man possessed for the rest of the season. Are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Why Steelers cover: Pittsburgh has won eight of their last ten games going back to last season and appears to be as strong under Mike Tomlin as they were with Bill Cowher. Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Total (38): Under is 5-1 in 49ers’ last six road games.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3 ½)
Why Rams cover: St. Louis fell two feet short of beating the 49ers in Week 2 when Jeff Wilkins’ 56-yard field goal attempt didn’t have quite enough leg. At 0-2 the Rams are in danger of falling well behind the rest of the NFC West with another loss. Marc Bulger has looked good so far this season with 535 yards passing, two TDs and no interceptions.

Why Buccaneers cover: Bulger has been sacked seven times in two games so far and will face a Bucs defense that punished the Saints in a convincing 31-14 victory last week. Steven Jackson has yet to get going and is only averaging 3 yards per carry. Rams are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Tampa Bay.
Total (38): Under is 7-3 in St. Louis’ last 10 road games.

Cincinnati at Seattle (-3 ½)

Why Bengals cover: Will want to rebound from embarrassing 51-45 loss to the Browns in Cleveland. Shaun Alexander will wear a cast on his sprained wrist which could affect the way he carries the ball and how tentative he runs. Bengals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Why Seahawks cover: Cincinnati has a porous defense that is allowing an ugly 434 yards per game, something the Seahawks offense will be looking to exploit. Seattle is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Total (50): Under is 4-0 in Seahawks’ last four home games and 4-0 in their last four games on field turf.

Cleveland at Oakland (-3)
Why Browns cover: New starting QB Derek Anderson passed for 328 yards and an incredible five touchdowns in Week 2 and seems to have silenced the Brady Quinn rumors for now. Raiders QB Josh McCown was not as fortunate, throwing three picks last Sunday prompting head coach Lane Kiffin to call the passing game “embarrassing.” Sebastian Janikowski has only converted one of five field goal attempts this year. Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on grass. Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

Why Raiders cover: Oakland played Denver tight last week before losing by a field goal in overtime. LaMont Jordan, who seems to have put his injuries and poor play from last season behind him, has 49 touches in two games and is carrying the load for Oakland. Cleveland ranks dead last in the league in defense, giving up 448 yards per game.
Total (40): Under is 10-3 in Oakland’s last 13 games on grass and 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.

Jacksonville at Denver (-3)

Why Jaguars cover: Jacksonville’s second-ranked pass defense should make it hard for Jay Cutler and the Broncos aerial attack, and with nine sacks in two games, the Jags should be able to pressure the young quarterback all day. Denver is 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC.

Why Broncos cover: Denver leads the league in total offense and is second in total defense. Maurice Jones-Drew could be out with an undisclosed injury meaning 31-year-old Fred Taylor would get the bulk of the carries. Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
Total (36): Jacksonville has only managed 23 points total this season.

Carolina at Atlanta (+4)
Why Panthers cover: Atlanta signed Byron Leftwich this week suggesting they have soured on current starting QB Joey Harrington. Falcons have only scored 10 points total in two games this season. Former strength was running game which has been non-existent in 2007 (89 yards per game).

Why Falcons cover: After playing the first two games on the road they will be happy to get back home. Panthers are 5-12-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
Total (36 ½): Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between the two.

N.Y. Giants at Washington (-4)
Why Giants cover: Redskins offense is vulnerable with second-year quarterback Jason Campbell prone to throwing interceptions. Eli Manning looks healed following his shoulder injury from Week 1 and has raised his quarterback rating a full 20 points from last year. With 90 yards on 15 carries, Derrick Ward has filled in admirably for injured running back Brandon Jacobs.

Why Redskins cover: Are only giving up 12 ½ points per game. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the favorite going 5-0 ATS in their last five.
Total (40 ½): Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Washington.

Dallas at Chicago (-3)
Why Cowboys cover: Tony Romo has been spectacular to date and is showing no ill-effects from his gaffe that cost the Cowboys a chance to advance in last year’s playoffs. Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games while Chicago is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Why Bears cover: Cowboys’ already thin receiving corps took another hit when Patrick Crayton dislocated his pinky finger against the Dolphins. Home team has won each of the last five meetings. Chicago only allowing 73.5 yards per game on the ground.
Total (41 ½): Over is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games on grass and 8-2-2 in their last 12 road games.

Tennessee at New Orleans (-4 ½)
Why Titans cover: New Orleans is giving up 36 points per game with teams terrorizing cornerback Jason David who came over from the Colts in the offseason. Have a nice one-two punch with running backs LenDale White and Chris Brown who have combined to rush for 339 yard in the first two games. Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 overall.

Why Saints cover: Everyone remembers the Saints’ emotional home opener last year that propelled them to a surprising 10-6 record in 2006. Emotions will again be running high as New Orleans comes home after losing their first two games of the season on the road. Crowd noise could boost the Saints and rattle Vince Young.

Total (45): Over is 4-0 in the Titans’ last four games on field turf and 4-1 in Saints’ last five games overall.

Monday Night Football Redskins At Eagles

2007-09-17T10:30:00.000-07:00

Selections for tonight

Washington +7
Over 38.5

The one thing you can expect tonight is a ton of scoring by both teams as the Eagles look to bounce back from being hushed in game one by the Packers. The Redskins look to go 2-0 and it would be a huge win at philly. Watch the blitz packages in full force tonight by the Eagles and this will allow the Skins to get one on one deep and open it up for easy touchdowns. There are always some turnovers in this rivalry and that will lead to big scoring.

Week2 Selections

2007-09-16T08:24:00.000-07:00

7) San Francisco +3

The Rams are a different team without Pace and it showed last week. When he left the ballgame the game went south and the Panthers took over. This should be a high scoring affair but I give the edge to the niners because they are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The Rams have lost 15 of 23 ATS after a SU and ATS loss.

6) Tampa Bay +3

(IF Garcia plays)The Saints last week looked very bad on defense and this was not a fluke, nor because they were playing the Colts. The Bucs are a good home divisional puppy and are 15-6-1 ATS after scoring 10 or less. They win the home opener.

5) Under 39 Carolina / Houston

This has all the makings of a defensive battle. The under is 17-6 in the first two weeks for the Panthers because they focus on defense and ball control. They run into a team that plays just like them and have gone under 18 out of 27 times as a road dog.

4) Miami +3

The Cowboys defense looked very bad against a Giant team that is not very good offensively so that will allow the Dolphins to stay in this game. The Dolphins have a respectable defense and a home opener as a live dog.

3) Washington / Philly Over 39 (MNF)

The Eagles offense looked pathetic last week but they are much better than it showed last week. This Monday night game will turn in into a shoot out. Washington will keep this close and the points will fly on in.

2) Arizona +3

The Cardinals looked great on defense last week and shutdown superstar Gore last week and if they do it aganst the Seahawks it can be a long day for the birds. Edge looked great and he will run to establish the pass and the wideouts for the birds will win this game in an upset. The Seahawks are horrible road chalk going 7-16 as road favorites and 3-12 ATS when laying 3 or less on the road.

1) Detroit -3

Another game where last weeks may have fooled you as the Vikings looked great against the hapless Falcons. The Vikings offense scored not one but two defensive TD’s and the offense will have a tough time keeping up with the 4 wide set of the high scoring Lions. The Vikings are 7-13 AS in the last 20 road openers and will get crushed on Sunday.

NFL News and Notes

2007-09-15T07:22:00.000-07:00

News & Notes For week 2

Check back for Selections on Tomorrow's games!

Atlanta at Jacksonville

The Jaguars have won two of their three matchups with the Falcons. Atlanta, though, won the last meeting 21-14 at home on Decemeber 28, 2003.

Cincinnati at ClevelandIn a November 26 win at Cleveland, Chad Johnson had seven catches for 123 yards, while Carson Palmer - seeking to go 6-1 against the Browns - completed 25 of 32 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns.

Houston at CarolinaThe Texans won 14-10 at home in their only meeting with the Panthers on Nov.ember 2, 2003. Jake Delhomme, though, has won five of his last seven games against AFC opponents, throwing for 10 touchdowns in those contests.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay Joey Galloway caught two touchdown passes in the Bucs' most recent victory over New Orleans, a 27-13 home win on January 1, 2006.

Buffalo at PittsburghThe Steelers also have a favorable record against the Bills, winning six of seven home meetings and leading the series 10-8 overall. Pittsburgh has won two straight and six of the last seven meetings, taking the most recent matchup 29-24 at Buffalo on January 2, 2005.The Bills have lost five straight in Pittsburgh, although they haven't played there since Septemeber 19, 1996.

Green Bay at N.Y. GiantsThe Giants have not opened a season with consecutive losses since starting 0-3 in 1996.Green Bay was 5-3 on the road last season, and has won its last two games against the Giants at the Meadowlands.In the last meeting between these teams on October 3, 2004, the Giants won 14-7 at Lambeau Field. Brett Favre threw for 110 yards, a touchdown and an interception, but was taken out of the game in the third quarter after suffering a concussion on the first drive of the second half.All-time against New York, Favre is 3-2, throwing for 1,112 yards, seven TDs and four interceptions.

Indianapolis at TennesseeThe Colts have won the last four AFC South titles, but December's loss to Tennessee snapped a 12-game winning streak against division opponents.

San Francisco at St. Louis Frank Gore has four touchdowns in his last three games against St. Louis and rushed for 261 yards in two meetings last season.San Francisco, which went 3-5 on the road last season, plays at Pittsburgh next week, then faces four straight 2006 playoff teams. After Sunday, St. Louis plays four of its next five on the road.

Dallas at Miami Trent Green, who began his career with Dallas' NFC East rival Washington, has lost all three of his starts versus the Cowboys despite posting a respectable 83.5 passer rating in those games.The Dolphins have won seven of 10 regular-season meetings with the Cowboys, including a 40-21 victory at Texas Stadium on Thanksgiving Day in 2003 - the most recent meeting. The Cowboys, though, won 29-10 in their last visit to Miami on October 27, 1996.

Minnesota at DetroitMinnesota, which led the NFL in rush defense last season, held Atlanta to 96 yards on the ground, the 14th time in the last 15 games it has held an opponent under 100 yards rushing.Detroit went 2-6 at home last season while Minnesota was 3-5 on the road. The Vikings are 5-0 at Ford Field.

Seattle at ArizonaThe Seahawks are looking for their fourth 2-0 start in five years, while the Cardinals are hoping to avoid opening 0-2 for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Arizona won its season opener last season before dropping its next eight games.

N.Y. Jets at BaltimoreThe Ravens went 7-1 at home last year, allowing an average of 12.0 points in those games.

Kansas City at ChicagoKansas City lost its last trip to Soldier Field, 20-17 on September 12, 1999. The Chiefs are 4-5 all-time versus Chicago.The Bears are trying to win their third consecutive home opener.

Oakland at DenverDenver has won its last seven home openers since a 38-21 loss to Miami on September 13, 1999. The Broncos have won four straight over the Raiders since a 25-24 loss on November 28, 2004, and limited them to 16 points in sweeping last year's series.

San Diego at New EnglandSan Diego quarterback Philip Rivers struggled against the Patriots in January, completing only 14 of 32 passes for 230 yards and one interception while also losing a fumble. He was 22-for-31 for 190 yards with an interception against the Bears last week.

Washington at PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia has won nine of the last 11 meetings with Washington. The only two losses came during the Eagles' disastrous 6-10 season in 2005 - the only year of the previous six they failed to win the division